What will the margin be in MD-SEN?

[UncleSam]

Alsobrooks by 7, Trone by 13.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Trone by 10-15%

[Mr. Smith]

D+5 or so. Hogan is going to put up a much better fight that Bredesen or Bullock.

Bullock faced an incumbent, and a relatively popular one, big difference.

[Flyersfan232]

likely D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stop worrying about MD until the primary next mnth

[MillennialModerate]

Everyone comparing this to Bullock in Montana or Bredesen in TN (that race still bothers me) isn’t paying attention. There are far more moderate Dems than moderate Republicans. Far more Dem voters who are reasonable, willing to be bipartisan and willing to ticket split. Susan Collins anyone?

For that reason - in addition to a dark red national enviorment … I think this races is very close. Dems still favored to win but it’ll be close

[Xing]

Hogan is DOA. Yes, he will overperform by a lot, but the type of overperformance he would need is pretty much unheard of for a Senate race in this day and age. Even if Maryland swings a bit to the right nationally (not at all a given, since it's pretty consistently swung leftward), he would still need at least a 30-point overperformance. The only time that has happened recently (not including uncontested Senate races or D vs. D races) was WV-SEN 2012. Even a Collins type overperformance would still be a double digit loss for Hogan. It's also worth mentioning that he was not re-elected by the type of margins Baker and Scott got. He won by 12% against a bad opponent. So it's not like his popularity even translated into that big of a win as an incumbent in a gubernatorial race. In a federal race, where he'll very quickly be painted as a reliable Republican vote, there's no way he's winning or coming close. Maryland is also much more Democratic than Montana or Tennessee are Republican.

Democrats have plenty of problems going into the elections this year, but MD-SEN ain't one. Safe D, the Democrat wins by 13-15%, maybe more.

[SnowLabrador]

Tossup.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hogan is DOA. Yes, he will overperform by a lot, but the type of overperformance he would need is pretty much unheard of for a Senate race in this day and age. Even if Maryland swings a bit to the right nationally (not at all a given, since it's pretty consistently swung leftward), he would still need at least a 30-point overperformance. The only time that has happened recently (not including uncontested Senate races or D vs. D races) was WV-SEN 2012. Even a Collins type overperformance would still be a double digit loss for Hogan. It's also worth mentioning that he was not re-elected by the type of margins Baker and Scott got. He won by 12% against a bad opponent. So it's not like his popularity even translated into that big of a win as an incumbent in a gubernatorial race. In a federal race, where he'll very quickly be painted as a reliable Republican vote, there's no way he's winning or coming close. Maryland is also much more Democratic than Montana or Tennessee are Republican.

Democrats have plenty of problems going into the elections this year, but MD-SEN ain't one. Safe D, the Democrat wins by 13-15%, maybe more.

Thank you! Yes, at best he might get something like a Michael Steele 2006 result, or 2012 non-Cardin candidate percentage.