Historically accurate election model says Trump would win by a large margin. (user search)
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  Historically accurate election model says Trump would win by a large margin. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Historically accurate election model says Trump would win by a large margin.  (Read 2116 times)
Hammy
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« on: October 18, 2019, 02:19:27 AM »
Quote from: 538Electoral on October 17, 2019, 12:04:17 PM


Moody's model correctly predicted every election since 1980 aside from 2016. The model says that assuming the economy stays good and turnout is close to the historical average, Trump wins all the states he won in 2016 along with Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia which would mean a 333-205 victory for Trump.

It seems the model does not work when Trump is involved as all convention is thrown out the window with him.
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