How would this forum react if Kamala Harris won the presidency? (user search)
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  How would this forum react if Kamala Harris won the presidency? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How would this forum react if Kamala Harris won the presidency?  (Read 14188 times)
Pericles
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« on: November 24, 2017, 12:39:04 AM »

Here's what I think would be the Harris map. She picks up MI, WI and PA due to increased black turnout, stronger performances with suburbanites and dissatisfaction with Trump(or Pence) among the WWC(as well as an unexpectedly better performance than Clinton by Harris). Florida flips due to the same factors plus strong Hispanic turnout and Puerto Ricans. Arizona will be the Virginia of 2020(2020 being 2008 in this sense), and she flips it as well. NC is a tough call but she flips it due to a bad GOP performance and strong Harris performance with suburbanites and minorities. I'm not sure about Georgia, it trended D by a lot in 2016 but it may still be slightly out of reach, however I think Harris will do well there as well as win strongly nationwide so that flips too. Trump keeps IA, OH, and ME-02, while Texas goes to him by a margin of under 5%.

Kamala Harris/Amy Klobuchar-Democratic: 350 EV 52.36%
President Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 188 EV 43.73%

I would be very pleased with this outcome
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Pericles
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Posts: 17,144


« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2017, 12:43:24 AM »

Here's what I think would be the Harris map. She picks up MI, WI and PA due to increased black turnout, stronger performances with suburbanites and dissatisfaction with Trump(or Pence) among the WWC(as well as an unexpectedly better performance than Clinton by Harris). Florida flips due to the same factors plus strong Hispanic turnout and Puerto Ricans. Arizona will be the Virginia of 2020(2020 being 2008 in this sense), and she flips it as well. NC is a tough call but she flips it due to a bad GOP performance and strong Harris performance with suburbanites and minorities. I'm not sure about Georgia, it trended D by a lot in 2016 but it may still be slightly out of reach, however I think Harris will do well there as well as win strongly nationwide so that flips too. Trump keeps IA, OH, and ME-02, while Texas goes to him by a margin of under 5%.

Kamala Harris/Amy Klobuchar-Democratic: 350 EV 52.36%
President Donald Trump/Mike Pence-Republican: 188 EV 43.73%

I would be very pleased with this outcome

I would agree with this. Harris is the Democratic party's best candidate to flip Georgia and Arizona. I'd probably give North Carolina and Wisconsin to Trump, but I believe those states will be decided based on Trump's approval rating on election night.

I think Wisconsin will flip back to the Democrats especially with Trump doing badly there and nationwide and generally if a Democrat wins Georgia I think they'd also win North Carolina.
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Pericles
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Posts: 17,144


« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2017, 08:05:04 PM »

NEW HAMPSHIRE IS A SWING STATE!
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