538 senate model now out

[n1240]

Seems like they don't have detailed forecast information yet but looks like they give too much of an advantage to some incumbents, particularly Jones, Gardner, and Collins.

[n1240]

Personally might stick with using the Lite model myself, and I would like for 538 to publish more detailed forecast information like they do for the president race. The Deluxe model seems to overweigh Expert ratings and the Classic model seems to overweigh incumbency. Jones has a even higher probability in the Classic model to win at 35%, which just doesn't make sense to me (also possible they're taking into account his significant fundraising advantage).

Would also like for them to publish runoff advance probabilities for GA special, currently going through all the bubbles it seems like it's about 50/50 chance of two R runoff in their Deluxe forecast and 60/40 in their Lite forecast.