I may be bias, but Baker is seeing a ton of momentum in Massachusetts. Hopefully it continues
Baker is rather good candidate, but Massachusetts is too Democratic and too liberal simultaneously for him to win barring Democratic candidate gaffes. But, this Democratic candidate being (probably) Coakley - everything is possible...
It is a Gubernatorial election though. Voters seem to care about a candidates independence and campaign more there than in a Senate or Presidential campaign.
I think it's a lean/competitive election no matter who the Democrats nominate, though Grossman is probably the best general election candidate. From what it seems, Baker's running a better campaign this time around, so this race is one to look out for.