Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Arizona Iced Tea]

My two thoughts about this race
1) Abrams may very well run, but I think it would be wise to assume she is not running when making predictions until she announces. A lot of us (myself included) have egg on our faces after hyping up Sununu only to see him opt out.
2) Georgia is trending Dem, but so was Virginia and we saw how that turned out. Rural Georgia sat out the runoff, but will likely show up this time in 2022. In Virginia rural turnout was cranked up to an extreme, and while it might be slightly less in Georgia there will be a noticeable affect. They might not show up for Kemp, but they will for Walker. Similarly, all it takes is a slight (but noticeable) suburban reversion for Kemp to win. In Virginia, Loudoun and Prince William county swung R from 2020 by around 15ish points. If something like that happens in Cobb and Gwinnett even if its just half of that (7ish points) that would put Kemp over the finish line.

*Note: This assumes Kemp is the nominee, if its someone else then we are looking at a very different race

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Could be tossup, but I am going to say Lean R post-Virginia.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I wonder how the election would go in Trumpy areas if Kemp is the GOP nominee.

Those voters will turn out in droves for Herschel Walker so it will be interesting to see if they vote Kemp, or leave that part of the ballot blank.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I wonder what happens to her legacy if she loses. I mean you can't take credit for making a state blue while losing two governor races back to back right?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I call a foul for chart abuse:

https://twitter.com/BrianKempGA/status/1512167075967639553

and if Kemp wins watch Trump tell his supporters in Georgia not to vote.

But he has enthusiastically endorsed Walker, for Senate, so I doubt he will try to reduce turnout this time.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I wish Georgia had public info of party registration like Florida and North Carolina.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/jchaltiwanger/status/1567604270803075072



RCP already has him at 49%, I think he clearly wins without a runoff only question is does he get enough to take Walker with him?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Are Dems going to pull the plug on Abrams the same way Rs are doing to Mastriano?