2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
May 19, 2024, 03:37:08 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 60 61 62 63 64 [65] 66 67 68 69 70 ... 75
Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130016 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,031
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1600 on: October 19, 2018, 11:33:44 AM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 19, 2018, 11:29:41 AM


LOL Blum is not four points ahead of Finkenauer
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,065
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1601 on: October 19, 2018, 11:37:24 AM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 19, 2018, 11:29:41 AM


Why cant they figure out that the MN-08 poll was trash?

Also, if Blum is up by 4 in this poll, and Shalala is tied, then NE-02 and MN-08 are still tossup races.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,276
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1602 on: October 19, 2018, 11:37:48 AM »
Rod Blum is always one of the most underestimated incumbents and declared DOA every two years. He’s not going to survive a D wave, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he won in a better than expected night for Republicans.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,031
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1603 on: October 19, 2018, 11:39:23 AM »
Blum is not going to win. Period.
Logged
Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,892


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1604 on: October 19, 2018, 11:42:09 AM »

Yeah, remember when some people were saying that it had to be Morganelli because Wild couldn't possibly be electable in a Clinton D+1 district?
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,967


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1605 on: October 19, 2018, 11:50:15 AM »
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on October 19, 2018, 11:42:09 AM

Yeah, remember when some people were saying that it had to be Morganelli because Wild couldn't possibly be electable in a Clinton D+1 district?

Meh, I said morganelli needed to be our nominee, but I always expected the Dems to win here. Morganelli's advantage would have been his ability to put the race away in August like Van Drew did with NJ02. Wild just meant that the race took longer to reach a similar point - early October.

Also...are people seriously taking polls from the CLF of all people at face value?
Logged
TheRocketRaccoon
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 761
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1606 on: October 19, 2018, 11:58:17 AM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on October 19, 2018, 11:50:15 AM
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on October 19, 2018, 11:42:09 AM

Yeah, remember when some people were saying that it had to be Morganelli because Wild couldn't possibly be electable in a Clinton D+1 district?

Meh, I said morganelli needed to be our nominee, but I always expected the Dems to win here. Morganelli's advantage would have been his ability to put the race away in August like Van Drew did with NJ02. Wild just meant that the race took longer to reach a similar point - early October.

Also...are people seriously taking polls from the CLF of all people at face value?

It makea you what kind of voter screen they're even using to get to Blum +4. (In addition to the lack of toplines of course)
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,519


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1607 on: October 19, 2018, 12:22:29 PM »

Wild has led by 8, 13, and 7 in the most recent polls.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,237


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1608 on: October 19, 2018, 01:23:16 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on October 19, 2018, 11:37:48 AM
Rod Blum is always one of the most underestimated incumbents and declared DOA every two years. He’s not going to survive a D wave, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he won in a better than expected night for Republicans.

Blum has only run for reelection once before.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1609 on: October 19, 2018, 02:24:23 PM »
Blum’s disadvantage may have been exaggerated, but since he was slightly down in other R internals, he’s clearly not in a good spot at all. The MN-08 poll by Siena was pretty obviously an outlier, and while I could buy Stauber being ahead, there’s no way this race swung 16 points over the past month.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1610 on: October 19, 2018, 02:30:07 PM »
Quote from: Republicans for Nelson on October 19, 2018, 12:27:38 PM
Quote from: Cruz Will Win 👁 on October 19, 2018, 11:42:09 AM

Yeah, remember when some people were saying that it had to be Morganelli because Wild couldn't possibly be electable in a Clinton D+1 district?

That wasn’t the argument. The argument for Morganelli was that he could hold it down long-term better than anyone else could. We’ll see!

Still a f**king dumb argument. What's the point of holding down a seat if we put a Republican in all but name on it?
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1611 on: October 19, 2018, 02:55:18 PM »
ME-01/ME-02 (Pan Atlantic Research):

ME-01:
Chellie Pingree (D-inc) 53
Mark Holbrook (R) 29

ME-02:
Bruce Poliquin (R-inc) 37
Jared Golden (D) 37
Tiffany Bond (I) 6
Will Hoar (I) 3

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Pan_Atlantic_Research_Maine.pdf
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,276
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1612 on: October 19, 2018, 02:56:33 PM »

Yeah, basically confirms the Siena/NYT poll.
Logged
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,031
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1613 on: October 19, 2018, 03:09:57 PM »
Holy sh**t, Poliquin has a 59% unfavorable rating.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,237


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1614 on: October 19, 2018, 03:12:28 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 19, 2018, 02:55:18 PM
ME-01/ME-02 (Pan Atlantic Research):

ME-01:
Chellie Pingree (D-inc) 53
Mark Holbrook (R) 29

ME-02:
Bruce Poliquin (R-inc) 37
Jared Golden (D) 37
Tiffany Bond (I) 6
Will Hoar (I) 3

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Pan_Atlantic_Research_Maine.pdf

Has anyone polled 2nd choices in ME-02?
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1615 on: October 19, 2018, 03:14:25 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on October 19, 2018, 03:12:28 PM
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 19, 2018, 02:55:18 PM
ME-01/ME-02 (Pan Atlantic Research):

ME-01:
Chellie Pingree (D-inc) 53
Mark Holbrook (R) 29

ME-02:
Bruce Poliquin (R-inc) 37
Jared Golden (D) 37
Tiffany Bond (I) 6
Will Hoar (I) 3

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Pan_Atlantic_Research_Maine.pdf

Has anyone polled 2nd choices in ME-02?

They did poll them here, but it was a sample of 23 in ME-01 and sample of 25 in ME-02, so I wouldn't put any weight into them at all.
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1616 on: October 19, 2018, 04:49:32 PM »
Nick Riccardi
‏
Verified account
 
@NickRiccardi
 32m32 minutes ago
More
Mike Coffman is being triaged — again. The NRCC is pulling $1m from Coffman and shifting it to FL’s open 27th CD.
Logged
The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
slightlyburnttoast
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,049
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.42, S: -5.43

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1617 on: October 19, 2018, 04:51:37 PM »
Quote from: psychprofessor on October 19, 2018, 04:49:32 PM
Nick Riccardi
‏
Verified account
 
@NickRiccardi
 32m32 minutes ago
More
Mike Coffman is being triaged — again. The NRCC is pulling $1m from Coffman and shifting it to FL’s open 27th CD.

The NRCC is really gonna use that money in FL-27 instead of the dozens of much more winnable races?
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1618 on: October 19, 2018, 04:54:33 PM »
Quote from: psychprofessor on October 19, 2018, 04:49:32 PM
Nick Riccardi
‏
Verified account
 
@NickRiccardi
 32m32 minutes ago
More
Mike Coffman is being triaged — again. The NRCC is pulling $1m from Coffman and shifting it to FL’s open 27th CD.

I guess they decided not to light money on fire anymore, and put it into a paper shredder instead.
Logged
Yank2133
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,387


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1619 on: October 19, 2018, 05:17:31 PM »
Quote from: psychprofessor on October 19, 2018, 04:49:32 PM
Nick Riccardi
‏
Verified account
 
@NickRiccardi
 32m32 minutes ago
More
Mike Coffman is being triaged — again. The NRCC is pulling $1m from Coffman and shifting it to FL’s open 27th CD.

Lmao!

They ran over him once and then backed truck up to do so again.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,667
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1620 on: October 19, 2018, 05:21:02 PM »
Quote from: Yank2133 on October 19, 2018, 05:17:31 PM
Quote from: psychprofessor on October 19, 2018, 04:49:32 PM
Nick Riccardi
‏
Verified account
 
@NickRiccardi
 32m32 minutes ago
More
Mike Coffman is being triaged — again. The NRCC is pulling $1m from Coffman and shifting it to FL’s open 27th CD.

Lmao!

They ran over him once and then backed truck up to do so again.

It's about time for his ass to go.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,237


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1621 on: October 19, 2018, 05:46:35 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 19, 2018, 03:14:25 PM
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on October 19, 2018, 03:12:28 PM
Quote from: ON Progressive on October 19, 2018, 02:55:18 PM
ME-01/ME-02 (Pan Atlantic Research):

ME-01:
Chellie Pingree (D-inc) 53
Mark Holbrook (R) 29

ME-02:
Bruce Poliquin (R-inc) 37
Jared Golden (D) 37
Tiffany Bond (I) 6
Will Hoar (I) 3

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Pan_Atlantic_Research_Maine.pdf

Has anyone polled 2nd choices in ME-02?

They did poll them here, but it was a sample of 23 in ME-01 and sample of 25 in ME-02, so I wouldn't put any weight into them at all.

Thanks!  It is interesting that 71% of third party voters in the 2nd district had no second choice, but only 26% of third party voters in the 1st district said this.  That's a meaningful difference even with such a small sample size.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,918


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1622 on: October 19, 2018, 08:00:28 PM »
CBS News, Oct. 14-17, 975 RV (change from May, which appears to be their most recent previous one)

D: 51 (+1)
R: 42 (+1)
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1623 on: October 19, 2018, 08:04:10 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 19, 2018, 08:00:28 PM
CBS News, Oct. 14-17, 975 RV (change from May, which appears to be their most recent previous one)

D: 51 (+1)
R: 42 (+1)

Muh Kavanaugh bump
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,918


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1624 on: October 19, 2018, 08:29:37 PM »
Quote from: Politician on October 19, 2018, 08:04:10 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 19, 2018, 08:00:28 PM
CBS News, Oct. 14-17, 975 RV (change from May, which appears to be their most recent previous one)

D: 51 (+1)
R: 42 (+1)

Muh Kavanaugh bump

There definitely seems to have been a Kavanaugh effect, but it was more of a blip than a bump.  Now that it's fading from most voters' consciousness, things are returning to a GCB of D+8 or 9.  Which is essentially the baseline that's been in place for months, with occasional short-term blips in both directions.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 60 61 62 63 64 [65] 66 67 68 69 70 ... 75  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 9 queries.