2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130000 times)
Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1550 on: October 17, 2018, 09:54:25 PM »
It would be beautifully humiliating to see Don Young go down in an upset even as Dunleavy cruises to victory.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1551 on: October 17, 2018, 09:58:06 PM »
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 17, 2018, 09:54:25 PM
It would be beautifully humiliating to see Don Young go down in an upset even as Dunleavy cruises to victory.

Bad Boy Begich needs a spanking.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1552 on: October 17, 2018, 10:19:14 PM »
Jewish Electorate Institute Poll of American Jews:

Democrats 74%
Republicans 26%

Trump's approval only at 23%.

Source
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1553 on: October 17, 2018, 10:20:47 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 17, 2018, 10:19:14 PM
Jewish Electorate Institute Poll of American Jews:

Democrats 74%
Republicans 26%

Trump's approval only at 23%.

Source

I was told that Democrats are ANTI-ISRAEL and that would sink Democrats with the Jewish vote because that's totally the only issue Jewish Americans care about!

Seriously though, this really isn't surprising.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1554 on: October 17, 2018, 10:24:15 PM »
Clinton won 70% of the Jewish vote in 2016, so Jews have actually trended AWAY slightly from the GOP despite their constant grandstanding on Israel
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #1555 on: October 17, 2018, 10:43:47 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on October 17, 2018, 10:24:15 PM
Clinton won 70% of the Jewish vote in 2016, so Jews have actually trended AWAY slightly from the GOP despite their constant grandstanding on Israel

Some Jews have probably trended away in part because of their grandstanding on Israel. It comes across as really phony.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1556 on: October 17, 2018, 10:48:00 PM »
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 17, 2018, 10:43:47 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on October 17, 2018, 10:24:15 PM
Clinton won 70% of the Jewish vote in 2016, so Jews have actually trended AWAY slightly from the GOP despite their constant grandstanding on Israel

Some Jews have probably trended away in part because of their grandstanding on Israel. It comes across as really phony.

Agreed. The entire embassy move was phony as hell. Another effort for the GOP to pander and siphon votes from the Democrats' Jewish base, like Kanye and Candace with African Americans.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #1557 on: October 17, 2018, 10:58:49 PM »
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 17, 2018, 10:43:47 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on October 17, 2018, 10:24:15 PM
Clinton won 70% of the Jewish vote in 2016, so Jews have actually trended AWAY slightly from the GOP despite their constant grandstanding on Israel

Some Jews have probably trended away in part because of their grandstanding on Israel. It comes across as really phony.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1558 on: October 18, 2018, 05:48:46 AM »
The playing footsie with Nazis in Charlottesville and not mentioning Jews during the Holocaust Remembrance Day announcement hit home a *little* more than whether Trump moved the Embassy or that Kushner is Jewish. Also, Jews have a high rate of secondary education so go along for the ride with that swing.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #1559 on: October 18, 2018, 06:13:38 AM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on October 18, 2018, 05:48:46 AM
The playing footsie with Nazis in Charlottesville and not mentioning Jews during the Holocaust Remembrance Day announcement hit home a *little* more than whether Trump moved the Embassy or that Kushner is Jewish. Also, Jews have a high rate of secondary education so go along for the ride with that swing.

That too, especially Charlottesville
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American2020
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« Reply #1560 on: October 18, 2018, 07:02:36 AM »


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Brittain33
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« Reply #1561 on: October 18, 2018, 07:09:28 AM »

#cantfilibusterthekuster
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Very Legal & Very Cool
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« Reply #1562 on: October 18, 2018, 07:09:53 AM »
Outstanding bets with my dad:

$100 Dems win the house (easy win)
$100 Dems win the Senate (likely loss)
$20 John Cox loses (easy win)
$20 Beto comes within 10 (likely win)

What else should I go for
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windjammer
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« Reply #1563 on: October 18, 2018, 08:21:40 AM »
Wooooooow
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bilaps
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« Reply #1564 on: October 18, 2018, 09:21:05 AM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on October 17, 2018, 10:48:00 PM
Quote from: Reasonable™ Moderate Republican on October 17, 2018, 10:43:47 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on October 17, 2018, 10:24:15 PM
Clinton won 70% of the Jewish vote in 2016, so Jews have actually trended AWAY slightly from the GOP despite their constant grandstanding on Israel

Some Jews have probably trended away in part because of their grandstanding on Israel. It comes across as really phony.

Agreed. The entire embassy move was phony as hell. Another effort for the GOP to pander and siphon votes from the Democrats' Jewish base, like Kanye and Candace with African Americans.

It has nothing to do with pandering votes, it has to do with pandering to donors.
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ltomlinson31
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« Reply #1565 on: October 18, 2018, 10:23:41 AM »
New Jersey Generic Ballot:
Democratic - 56%
Republican - 36%

New Jersey House races were D+8 in 2016 and D+2 in 2014.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NJ_101818/
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1566 on: October 18, 2018, 10:28:42 AM »
Quote from: ltomlinson31 on October 18, 2018, 10:23:41 AM
New Jersey Generic Ballot:
Democratic - 56%
Republican - 36%

New Jersey House races were D+8 in 2016 and D+2 in 2014.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NJ_101818/

Wow.

If that number is accurate, an 11-1 map looks very probable. Even Chris Smith might get a closer shave than expected.
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Politician
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« Reply #1567 on: October 18, 2018, 10:34:01 AM »
Quote from: ltomlinson31 on October 18, 2018, 10:23:41 AM
New Jersey Generic Ballot:
Democratic - 56%
Republican - 36%

New Jersey House races were D+8 in 2016 and D+2 in 2014.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NJ_101818/
RIP MacArthur and Lance
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1568 on: October 18, 2018, 10:56:37 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 18, 2018, 10:28:42 AM
Quote from: ltomlinson31 on October 18, 2018, 10:23:41 AM
New Jersey Generic Ballot:
Democratic - 56%
Republican - 36%

New Jersey House races were D+8 in 2016 and D+2 in 2014.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NJ_101818/

Wow.

If that number is accurate, an 11-1 map looks very probable. Even Chris Smith might get a closer shave than expected.

An 11-1 map has been very probably for awhile now. Lance was the only challenge for Democrats to achieving this, and being statistically tied as an incumbent of the party not favored in the midterm election never usually works out well, especially in a state that leans toward the favored party.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #1569 on: October 18, 2018, 01:12:27 PM »
Quote from: Politician on October 18, 2018, 10:34:01 AM
Quote from: ltomlinson31 on October 18, 2018, 10:23:41 AM
New Jersey Generic Ballot:
Democratic - 56%
Republican - 36%

New Jersey House races were D+8 in 2016 and D+2 in 2014.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NJ_101818/
RIP MacArthur and Lance
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American2020
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« Reply #1570 on: October 18, 2018, 01:46:13 PM »
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1571 on: October 18, 2018, 02:00:46 PM »
Quote from: American2020 on October 18, 2018, 01:46:13 PM


In line (so far) with the Siena poll. Could be one of those sleeper races that could surprisingly go to the Dems next month.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1572 on: October 18, 2018, 02:08:39 PM »
A Walters internal has her up 4, but doing worse than Cox in her district.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1573 on: October 18, 2018, 02:28:54 PM »
Quote from: American2020 on October 18, 2018, 01:46:13 PM


Pretty scary poll for the Republicans, especially coming from a good pollster like SurveyUSA.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1574 on: October 18, 2018, 02:33:43 PM »


Always had this as Strong Lean R.
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