NV-TargetPoint Consulting/Washington Free Beacon: Sanders & Clinton tied at 45%

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By the way, Nate Silver's first forecast for the NV Democratic caucus puts each at an exactly 50% chance of winning.

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538 forecasts are pointless with one poll. But at the very it least it seems like they threw out the Clinton skew in their "polls-plus" forecast after they saw how little impact Clinton's endorsements had.

I never understood that anyway. If Clinton's enorsements had a huge effect, wouldn't that be reflected in the polls?

Exactly. The supposed effect of "endorsements" was just another way for 538 to please its fallacy of Clinton's inevitability. Thankfully, they seem to be past that by now.

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Nate Silver now says that Bernie will probably win Nevada.

"Probably" as in a 51% chance, but still.