VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Oryxslayer]

Someone in here wanted a HoD map. Do not share this, I am using some elses map - it is simply to convey data quickly.

Blue is dem, Red is Rep, light blue is dem pickup, white is still outstanding, and purple is heading to a recount.

Districts 27, 68, and 40 - the white one inNOVA and the white ones in the Richmond Suburbs are heading to recounts. This puts five districts on route to recounts, the previous 2 and  28 + 94.

84 and 85 are the only outstanding races -  located in Virginia Beach. Both could avoid a recount, but 85 could head there. Dems are currently ahead in 85, republicans in 84.

[Oryxslayer]

will HD-94 have a recount?

https://www.vpap.org/offices/house-of-delegates-94/elections/

If there doesn't end up being a recount (after provisionals are all counted) then the parties are truly incompetent.

[Oryxslayer]

This is off-topic, but I find it pretty hilarious that Charlie Cook thinks that Tim Kaine is as vulnerable as Tammy Baldwin or Jon Tester in 2018. Like, you can totally believe that Democrats are almost certainly going to win MT and WI, but come on, VA is obviously more likely to send a Democrat to the Senate. If MT, WI, etc. are all "Likely D", VA should definitely be Safe D. As should NJ, btw.

I agree except its now all up to Comstock. If she does what everyone here expects, and runs for Senate to avoid a Massacre in VA=10, then I could see Likely D a valid rating. If not, it should slide to Safe D.

[Oryxslayer]

Very cool chart:



Source

which district is that one red dot in the first quadrant

Probably HD 40, the one remaining true NOVA seat occupied by the Republicans, and one of the four that will likely head to a recount. The dem was actually ahead there on election night, but a recanvas saw him lose the lead the next day.

[Oryxslayer]

He appears to have won 58 districts.

Oh wow. This means that Democrats still have plenty of room to grow in the next election. There could be a clear majority by 2019.

Yes. In fact, it would be fair to say Democrats are favored to take back both the state Senate and HoD in 2019 if the election is even half as good as it was this week. They don't have over a dozen incumbents to take out next time around, and because those were almost all Clinton districts, they will be easier to keep. In many ways this was a massive correction on an over-extended GOP that got greedy in the last round  of redistricting.

As it stands now, there are a few Clinton districts and like a half dozen marginal Trump districts Democrats could make serious plays for. As soon as they take complete control, the HoD gerrymander comes down and there will probably be a slew of pro-voter reforms passed.

It would be nice if someone (DDHQ, perhaps?) could come up with a map showing partisan control district-by-district in the Virginia Senate, like we saw with the House of Delegates in the run-up to this Tuesday. 

Here is a map of the current senate - note how Dems really drew the map in their favor in 2010:
https://www.vpap.org/elections/senate/

Here is a map showing Clinton's margin in said seats. Reps hold 3 Clinton districts (10, 12, 13,) and 1 marginal Trump district (7). Of course more could be competitive, but this is purely PVI based.
https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/2016-presidential-results-by-senate/


Also, the Dem in HD 27, the hardest seat to flip in a recount has conceded. This now puts the chamber at 49-48 D, with 3 seats heading to probable recounts.

[Oryxslayer]

I guess Glen Sturtevant and Dick Black can expect a nice cushy appointment from Northam...

My guess is they are already strategizing over it, although we might not see anything for a long time, since there is no real urgency as there would maybe before redistricting or a big, consequential policy fight. For instance in mid-2014, Phillip Puckett (D) announced his resignation from the Senate, opening up a D-held Senate district in SWVA. That took over half a year to materialize.

Putting aside the Assad-lover and based on how correlated the victories were to Clinton or marginal Trump districts, there are a few targets in the Senate: Bryce Reeves, Siobhan Dunnavant, Glen Sturtevant and Frank Wagner. Those are all districts Democrats could absolutely win in a hotly-contested special election, and they are pretty vulnerable in 2019. I would peg Sturtevant as a given loss right now, but as a Senate sophomore he might want to try his luck . Any of the others are reaches at best, although I suppose there are a couple districts that might be possible if Democrats parked an army of volunteers and money in them.

I'm not so sure about the HoD. I'd have to think some of the incumbents who almost lost may be looking to move on/up voluntarily instead of getting chased out of Richmond by a mob of angry Democrats in 2019.

My guess is that Northam will wait until after the recounts are finished before making announcements on his cabinet.

I agree. Yancey, the R undergoing a recount in HD 94 for example is an obvious pick. He has traditionally been Pro-Solar and somewhat pro-choice, making him an ideologically easy choice to kick upstairs. However, that appointment can only happen if the recount finds him victorious.

[Oryxslayer]

Latest VPAP update has Tanner leading Hugo in HD-40. This would put it at 50-50 if it holds, correct?

Considering VPAP still has Yancey's lead at 12 votes, it is likely that this is simply the day of results, and VPAP never updated it afterwards. Checking the Sec of State shows Hugo still ahead, with the last update on the 13th. VPAP says they updated sooner but their numbers are older so...

Also nobodies freaking out about it on Twitter like they were with the HD28 ballots, so your likely still seeing the old numbers before the recanvas saw the dem votes drop.

[Oryxslayer]

Wow I thought Hugo was ahead, Tribbett said his lead was very likely to be maintained.

As I said above, it probably it, VPAP simply never updated their numbers but we are being confused. If the VA political junkies aren't freaking out, it isn't real.

[Oryxslayer]

Everyone here is shouting down such a move, but I think it is a smart one. Northam right now has a 51-49 Republican House of Delegates, and a 21-19 Republican Senate. Those numbers may change before January: Dems could flip HD94, the results in HD28 could be overturned and a rerun called, Northam could pull house and senate republicans in his administration. However, at the end of the day, government will still be divided.

Pursuing Medicaid expansion against a Republican legislature is going to require a lot of force and capitol to pass, and there is no guarantee of it passing. However, if Northam holds the expansion, it becomes an issue for Dems to campaign on in 2019. The high chance of democrats gaining a Trifecta in 2019 also means that Northam can pass Medicaid expansion then without all the roadblocks, arguments, and pitfalls that would occur if he attempts to pass it now. Better for Northam to use his capitol on the easy/necessary/bipartisan stuff during the 2017-2019 period, then ram the Liberal policy through the state house once he has his Trifecta.