IN-SEN: Brains or Braun?

[StateBoiler]

Braun internal polling released, per Howey Politics' weekly newsletter:

Braun 30%, Rokita 21%, Messer 16%, Undecided 33%

https://howeypolitics.com/Files/HPI180329-4b1dfd469e4c45af977734e4ba515529.pdf

Interview of race's history, per Braun:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

My personal take is Rokita has really bombed things skipping out on the Indianapolis April 30th debate. Not so much the debate itself, but the impression it's given that he runs away from being challenged. Braun has gotten a lot of name recognition for a state representative vs. the 2 federal Congressmen from running ads a long time unchallenged by the other two.

I'll be attending the April 23rd debate. Don't know who I'll vote for yet but it definitely won't be Rokita (so Braun or Messer). Rokita winning the primary would be the best news for Donnelly's reelection campaign in my opinion.

[StateBoiler]

Braun riled things up when it became clear he was going to enter. Everyone expected a straight up Rokita vs. Messer fight more or less.

I think Braun's presence in the race hurts Messer more than Rokita.

I'm not privy to the thoughts of "Indiana Republican officiants", but the other two rail on Washington insiders, and Braun points out "you guys have been in government for years". His cardboard cutout ad on the two of them is a stroke of genius if you haven't seen it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSUIqBhU-WU

You must be logged in to read this quote.

1. Rokita is running as if he'd be more a headache for McConnell.

2. It's out in the open and has been since late last year I think, but Braun voted in Democratic primaries until 2012 I think the year was. Braun has said "where I'm from, the Democrats always won; to have real influence as a voter I had to vote as a Democrat".

[StateBoiler]

Heard it down the grapevine from an Indiana Republican officiant that they don't want Braun to be the nominee. Which doesn't make sense to me, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Lolwut why on earth? He’s easily the strongest nominee. I’d set this race to Tilt R if he wins the primary

I really don't know. My guess is they feel Braun won't fire up the base enough? Donnelly will definitely benefit from a trade war, since tariffs on pork are riling up farmers, and if a soy tariff follows? Boy howdy.

Ironically, Pete Visclosky, Democrat representative in Congress from Lake County, is full on board with the tariffs. Jackie Walorski, Republican representative in Congress from next door in northern Indiana (where a lot of RV manufacturing is done, in addition to farming), is against it.

I do wonder how many voters though are actually impacted by tariffs on farming. There's been a lot of consolidation of the small family farms. There's still family farmers, but they're larger operations now acreage-wise, which means there's less of them as a percentage of overall voters.

That said, I don't expect Lake County Democrats to vote for the Republican, or a lot of Walorski's constituents to vote for Donnelly. Tariffs would hurt Braun's business, so not sure he'd be for it. Watched the economic debate a week or so ago, and I think he was against it. This hand grenade the president threw doesn't really fit on left-vs-right lines. Union voters for example are probably a majority for them. Due to my line of work, I'm not pro-tariff. I am more pro-stopping countries from intentionally undervaluing their currency than anything (which the entire tariff conversation is a reaction to, of course the media and no one else are near smart enough on the issue to talk about that). This is more just an example of how Bretton Woods II is failing and we need a Bretton Woods III.

WIBC recap of the 1st debate: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpOsDErRx_s

[StateBoiler]

https://apnews.com/amp/aaeb92bec9c2430ea6b23c85fab84948

Rokita used to be a Never-Trumper. Messer isn't gonna let him off the hook for it.

This primary is such a sh!tshow.

Eh, not really, that's just politics. The first debate between the 3 was very civil.

[StateBoiler]

https://apnews.com/amp/aaeb92bec9c2430ea6b23c85fab84948

Rokita used to be a Never-Trumper. Messer isn't gonna let him off the hook for it.

This primary is such a sh!tshow.

Eh, not really, that's just politics. The first debate between the 3 was very civil.

Who do you prefer, out of curiosity?

Not decided yet. I know it's not Rokita, so I'll vote for either Braun or Messer. Right now I'm leaning Braun.

I'll be attending the April 23rd debate.

[StateBoiler]

The Trump reelection campaign has demanded the Rokita campaign remove these road signs.



http://www.journalgazette.net/news/local/indiana/20180419/trump-team-rokita-must-remove-signs

Rokita has agreed to participate in the Indiana Debate Commission's April 30th debate.

[StateBoiler]

Brian Howey:

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/Default/Lead-Story/Article/Horse-Race-Rokita-teeters-as-Messer-makes-Indy-TV-push/-3/346/17387

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Former Congressman Mark Souder's take on the race for the same publication. The Messer line is worth a laugh.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[StateBoiler]

How did Mike raise taxes?

The supermajority Republican state legislature has most notably approved a decent-sized gas tax hike for the purpose of repairing the state's road infrastructure in the past couple years. Braun served in the state House until late last year.

Not sure how they get the 45 number, but that's the key one.

[StateBoiler]

Here is something that Joe Donnelly can use against Braun if he the Republican nominee.

https://www.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/06/mike-braun-indiana-primary-2018-senate-race-ethics-concerns-timber-industry/490093002/

Nobody will care. Almost all 2018 races are a referendum on Trump period

Nobody will care because the legislation benefited his entire industry, not just his business.

deregulating oil companies-

Nobody will care because the legislation benefited his entire industry, not just his business.

Braun is not in the oil business. He owns an auto parts distributor business.

[StateBoiler]

morning update

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/Default/Lead-Story/Article/Atomic-Braun-loans-5M-Rokita-cash-tape-Pence-bankruptcies/-3/346/17427

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Radio interview with Messer this morning: https://www.wowo.com/congressman-messer-speaks-ahead-of-tonights-senate-debate/

[StateBoiler]

Does anyone else have a hard time telling Messer and Rokita apart?

mike braun literally did an ad about this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvKHqChRrYg

probably the best republican ad i've seen this cycle

I'm genuinely pretty worried about Braun winning the primary.

Yea Messer and Rokita both carry quite a bit of baggage with them while Braun is kind of a clean slate and basically as close as you can get to a Generic R.

I think Messer is more "generic R" than the other two. Rokita is clearly portraying himself as the spitting image of Trump, and Braun is "outsider businessman". Although there's very little policy differences between the 3 when it comes to the debates.

Local take:

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/Default/Lead-Story/Article/Horse-Race-An-utterly-fluid-Republican-U-S-Senate-finish/-3/346/17465

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[StateBoiler]

Not expecting much of anything to happen in the final April 30th debate based on the one I attended this past Monday. But my guess at this point is Braun wins this due to being considered the most electable. The reason Donnelly is in this seat to begin with is Republicans nominated someone that turned out to be unelectable. And since it's a competitive 3-way race, he only needs 40% to win most likely. The thing that gives Howey pause is there's hardly been any polling by independent orgs and it's believed there are a ton of undecideds.

[StateBoiler]

Yeah I think Braun would beat Donnelly by around 2, whereas Donnelly beats Messer by 3 and Rotika by 6

I think Braun is the strongest, but I don't think he's as strong as Atlas is hyping him up to be against Donnelly. I don't think he'd beat Donnelly at the moment.

Braun's strongest asset policy-wise in my opinion is how he describes how he handled healthcare and its costs for his company's employees negotiating with the insurers. It shows he gets how screwed up healthcare is and even if you're anti-Obamacare, you still know it needs to be fixed.

[StateBoiler]

Here's a more cynical take on the race from a Republican:

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/Columns/Columns/Article/Mark-Souder-A-choice-between-2-cardboard-cutouts-and-a-Democrat/10/20/17463

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[StateBoiler]

That Mark Souder can throw some serious shade

Also; StateBoiler, thank you for all your updates from the ground!

Thanks.

Random guess:

Braun 38
Rokita 34
Messer 28

Kinda feel bad for Messer. If it was a 2-way between him and Rokita, I'd vote for him, but Braun or Rokita finishing 3rd I would find surprising, so that only leaves him to finish 3rd. It's not real numbers-based that analysis, just my gut.

[StateBoiler]

Lol that republican can't stand the thought of Braun being even remotely moderate (even though he has been campaigning as a conservative and has a voting record in Indiana).

The only attack that's stuck somewhat on him is Braun voted in Democratic primaries until relatively recently because in his words the Democrats controlled his county's politics in spite of it being relatively conservative, and it was the only way for him to have local political influence was to pull a Democratic ballot. I read an editorial from a former county GOP chairman that pointed out "Rush Limbaugh was telling conservatives to do this exact thing 10 years ago".

I wish we had real party registration. It's stupid not too.

[StateBoiler]

I’m going to vote for Braun later today. I think he has broad appeal and despite the eye roll outsider schtick seems like a pretty decent guy. State Boiler do you know if the most recent debate can be accessed somewhere?
My prediction is Braun 40, Rokita 35, Messer 25.

If you go to the Allen County GOP Facebook page, they live streamed it there.

The main broadcast partners were WPTA 21 of Fort Wayne and WOWO News Radio of Fort Wayne. You can maybe find it on one of their sites.

The Indiana Debate Commission debate tonight will be live streamed on Youtube.

[StateBoiler]

indypolitics.org:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

There are also 2 open seat congressional races, the 4th and 6th, where Messer and Rokita are vacating to run for Senate. One of them Mike Pence's brother is running.

[StateBoiler]

Donnelly I think is in even more danger than Heitkamp and Manchin. He has the lowest profiles of any of the red state Dems. He doesn't have the brand that Manchin, McCaskill, Tester, and Heitkamp have, he was just a little known House Rep who got elected in a fluke.

This is factually inaccurate. His low profile will be an asset in Indiana and he absolutely has a brand in state.

I don't know. I only moved here in February 2013 for a job, so his election was shortly before I moved here, but for how much the 3 Republicans talk about him, he strikes me as a bit of a nothing figure politically. He's been a Senator for 5 years and change, what was his landmark legislative achievement?

I once happened on many years ago a copy of Texas Monthly where they were discussing their state legislature's performance, and they had a term "furniture" for elected reps that were there but did pretty much nothing. When I used to live in North Carolina and Elizabeth Dole was one of my Senators, she was "furniture". Donnelly kind of appears the same. He is at the moment the only Democrat that is elected statewide. Republicans have the governor, lieutenant governor, all 7 state officer positions, and the other Senator, so in theory he should be the leader of the Democratic Party throughout the state, and he's not very visible, which speaks more to how irrelevant the Democrats are in the state at the moment. That can change in November of course...but if the Democrats don't get a big wave of some kind in the state in November - Congress, state legislature - they are done in Indiana. Even if Donnelly holds his seat but they somehow don't get much of anything from the Congress seats or the state legislature, they are done, no different than Massachusetts Republicans. When would the mood ever benefit them more than this election?

[StateBoiler]

Mustache man got close to winning the gov race in 2012 and 2016

2012, sure.

[StateBoiler]

Donnelly I think is in even more danger than Heitkamp and Manchin. He has the lowest profiles of any of the red state Dems. He doesn't have the brand that Manchin, McCaskill, Tester, and Heitkamp have, he was just a little known House Rep who got elected in a fluke.

This is factually inaccurate. His low profile will be an asset in Indiana and he absolutely has a brand in state.

I don't know. I only moved here in February 2013 for a job, so his election was shortly before I moved here, but for how much the 3 Republicans talk about him, he strikes me as a bit of a nothing figure politically. He's been a Senator for 5 years and change, what was his landmark legislative achievement?

I once happened on many years ago a copy of Texas Monthly where they were discussing their state legislature's performance, and they had a term "furniture" for elected reps that were there but did pretty much nothing. When I used to live in North Carolina and Elizabeth Dole was one of my Senators, she was "furniture". Donnelly kind of appears the same. He is at the moment the only Democrat that is elected statewide. Republicans have the governor, lieutenant governor, all 7 state officer positions, and the other Senator, so in theory he should be the leader of the Democratic Party throughout the state, and he's not very visible, which speaks more to how irrelevant the Democrats are in the state at the moment. That can change in November of course...but if the Democrats don't get a big wave of some kind in the state in November - Congress, state legislature - they are done in Indiana. Even if Donnelly holds his seat but they somehow don't get much of anything from the Congress seats or the state legislature, they are done, no different than Massachusetts Republicans. When would the mood ever benefit them more than this election?

After May Landrieu and Scott Brown lost, people began writing their respective states’ parties off as irrelevant in statewide races, yet their parties won the subsequent gubernatorial races in said states.

Not saying that would necessarily happen in Indiana, but don’t underestimate the volatility of the American voter, even in “Safe” states

The only person going around the state stumping for Democrats at the moment is...

https://howeypolitics.com/Content/Default/Lead-Story/Article/Atomic-Sen-Undecided-losers-pressers-more-Gregg-sightings/-3/346/17512

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Meanwhile, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is running for president. :rolleyes:

Back to the purpose of the thread, from the same link:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Republican powerbrokers in the state are ready for this primary to be done. National Committeeman John Hammond has stated this race is one to the bottom and resembles Dante's Inferno. The high number of undecideds must speak in my opinion to the weakness of the three to convince those paying attention of anything while pundits say and I agree with them on this that "when you all answer the same on policy, the only thing left is personality, so that's what they're all doing is attacking that." That said, I don't know how many people are actually watching the debates but it's probably small.

While I think Donnelly is naturally fragile, whoever wins this needs to up it a gear if they want to win in November.

[StateBoiler]

That's definitely not going to do Braun in, in a primary or general. A lot of voters like the idea of having a "businessman" in power, and care little to nothing about the history and dealings of said "businessman." But let's dispel with the fiction that Braun is the "reasonable" candidate in the race.

Are we going to hold from now on every single business owner, government manager, etc. worldwide responsible for every single decision of their Human Resources Department? Just asking for future reference. There's a level of micromanagement required to do that that no one that actually works in the real world wants or expects.

Everyone on this thread, apply this to your own work. You're seriously blaming your CEO and actually think he did the deed? If you think that, maybe in a couple cases that's the truth, but for the rest, I know never to take your opinion on this board seriously again because you're either being contrarian on purpose, so you're lying, or you're ignorant, which isn't a good outcome for you either.

That said, "honorable businessman" is a cliche and Braun is bigging it up better than it is, but calling out a business owner of a company with thousands of employees over the firing of one employee, you're just not an educated person if you think Mike Braun personally looked at the employee's record, called someone up, and said "fire him".

[StateBoiler]

That's definitely not going to do Braun in, in a primary or general. A lot of voters like the idea of having a "businessman" in power, and care little to nothing about the history and dealings of said "businessman." But let's dispel with the fiction that Braun is the "reasonable" candidate in the race.

Are we going to hold from now on every single business owner, government manager, etc. worldwide responsible for every single decision of their Human Resources Department? Just asking for future reference. There's a level of micromanagement required to do that that no one that actually works in the real world wants or expects.

Everyone on this thread, apply this to your own work. You're seriously blaming your CEO and actually think he did the deed? If you think that, maybe in a couple cases that's the truth, but for the rest, I know never to take your opinion on this board seriously again because you're either being contrarian on purpose, so you're lying, or you're ignorant, which isn't a good outcome for you either.

That said, "honorable businessman" is a cliche and Braun is bigging it up better than it is, but calling out a business owner of a company with thousands of employees over the firing of one employee, you're just not an educated person if you think Mike Braun personally looked at the employee's record, called someone up, and said "fire him".

The article suggests that there was much more than one troublesome incident. While it's true that you can't always blame management, when a pattern, such as overtime violations, is noticeable, the management is either responsible or being negligent of the problem. My point was that people are too quick to see "businessman" and think positively of a candidate, and this is problematic to say the least.

My father worked for the Defense Department his entire life. Under your line of thinking, every problem or pattern of problems he experienced, of which they were many, the management - government appointees which were appointed by appointees of the appointed Secretary of Defense who was nominated by the President - were to blame for these problems occurring, which fell on Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama (retired before Trump took office) in a combination of responsibility and negligence on all their parts for not having their appointed Secretary of Defense handle all these problems.

The reason people think highly of "businessman" in the current climate is because it's normally an executive position where you either get stuff done or your company will fall apart and die. If the businessman is a bad businessman, all his employees go on government aid or take a job that doesn't pay as well, and all local government units - counties, cities, states, school boards - have less tax income to take care of their duties. It's a good line compared to two non-practicing attorneys - a profession where people argue one way or another based on who is paying them - that are congressmen when most Americans think Congress accomplishes nothing. And I might even vote for Messer, but that's the honest truth.

[StateBoiler]

That's definitely not going to do Braun in, in a primary or general. A lot of voters like the idea of having a "businessman" in power, and care little to nothing about the history and dealings of said "businessman." But let's dispel with the fiction that Braun is the "reasonable" candidate in the race.

Are we going to hold from now on every single business owner, government manager, etc. worldwide responsible for every single decision of their Human Resources Department? Just asking for future reference. There's a level of micromanagement required to do that that no one that actually works in the real world wants or expects.

Everyone on this thread, apply this to your own work. You're seriously blaming your CEO and actually think he did the deed? If you think that, maybe in a couple cases that's the truth, but for the rest, I know never to take your opinion on this board seriously again because you're either being contrarian on purpose, so you're lying, or you're ignorant, which isn't a good outcome for you either.

That said, "honorable businessman" is a cliche and Braun is bigging it up better than it is, but calling out a business owner of a company with thousands of employees over the firing of one employee, you're just not an educated person if you think Mike Braun personally looked at the employee's record, called someone up, and said "fire him".

The article suggests that there was much more than one troublesome incident. While it's true that you can't always blame management, when a pattern, such as overtime violations, is noticeable, the management is either responsible or being negligent of the problem. My point was that people are too quick to see "businessman" and think positively of a candidate, and this is problematic to say the least.

My father worked for the Defense Department his entire life. Under your line of thinking, every problem or pattern of problems he experienced, of which they were many, the management - government appointees which were appointed by appointees of the appointed Secretary of Defense who was nominated by the President - were to blame for these problems occurring, which fell on Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama (retired before Trump took office) in a combination of responsibility and negligence on all their parts for not having their appointed Secretary of Defense handle all these problems.

The reason people think highly of "businessman" in the current climate is because it's normally an executive position where you either get stuff done or your company will fall apart and die. If the businessman is a bad businessman, all his employees go on government aid or take a job that doesn't pay as well, and all local government units - counties, cities, states, school boards - have less tax income to take care of their duties. It's a good line compared to two non-practicing attorneys - a profession where people argue one way or another based on who is paying them - that are congressmen when most Americans think Congress accomplishes nothing. And I might even vote for Messer, but that's the honest truth.

Except that the president does not "own" the state department in the same way that a CEO owns a company. My point is not that CEOs bear all of the responsibility, but when there are patterns of problems/negligence that happen under your watch, you can't deflect all o the responsibility and call yourself a "good businessman".

Yes, because from working in the real world, I and everyone else knows that the underlings make sure the CEO and the Board of Directors know absolutely everything...

So when there are patterns of problems/negligence that happen in a cabinet department, why do people attack the president? (That's true for whichever party is in the White House. Since I've reached adulthood, I could cite multiple examples for the last 3 presidents.)

You're having your cake and eating it too a bit in your attempt at this argument. You want to push argument A, you have to either accept the corollary to that or withdraw your argument. CEOs are responsible for the business, just as the President is responsible for the Defense Department, that does not they are responsible for every single low-level decision.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm not going to sit here and act like the entire group are saints. Morals and ethics are not defined by vocation. But most people have a higher opinion of them as a group than they do politicians as a group at the moment. If Braun and his staff didn't think voters liked hearing he was a successful businessman, he wouldn't be stating it. If Rokita and Messer thought voters would be impressed with their congressional experience, they would be citing it more often than they are.

[StateBoiler]

Thought you were a Braun guy, StateBoiler?

I'm definitely not a Rokita guy. I'm leaning more toward Braun than Messer, but before I vote in the primary I'll try to listen to the last debate from this past Monday. If it was a straight up Rokita-Braun race and Messer had little to no chance at winning, I'll probably vote Braun. But if there are as many undecideds as everyone thinks there are, it's literally anyone's ballgame, which is a plus to Messer's chances. This is a pretty crazy race for it being so high-profile as far as it being Senate, it's a 3-way race, and the complete lack of good polling.