🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[buritobr]

Die Linke had >35% in Erfurt, Jena and Weimar, and the sum of Linke+SPD+Grüne in these cities were >55%. The AfD did better in small towns.

[buritobr]

"Bloc" was a bad word. Of course, CDU/CSU, FDP and AfD don't build a bloc. There was never also a SPD, Grünen and Linke bloc at the federal leval.
But I compared the sum CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD to the sum SPD+Grünen+Linke in order to verify if the pendulum of the voter's preference is more to the left or to the right, and according to the sums, the right performs better. Usually the sum of the right has 51% and the sum of the left is 43%.
But it would be interesting to check which parties are inside the "Sonstige" which is the not negligible 6%. If "Sonstige" was a single party, it would have seats. We have to see if most of this 6% of "Sonstige" is to the left or to the right.

[buritobr]

The result for die Linke was not a disaster. It was similar to 2016 in both states. The elections took place in 2 states die Linke perform usually bad.

[buritobr]

Yes, die Linke performs better in the east and in the big cities in the west. Stuttgart and Mainz are not very big cities.

Well, but these few Linke vote today could have damaged the possibility of a red-green majority in both states.

[buritobr]

Results in Trier, the city where Karl Marx was born

SPD 32.1%
CDU 21.1%
Grüne 18.7%
AfD 5.4%
FDP 5.2%
FW 4.3%
Linke 5.0%

He would be happy with the result, because his city voted on the left of the average of the state

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-in-rheinland-pfalz-2021-karte-zeigt-hochburgen-der-spd-und-cdu-a-87fc0207-29d0-45ea-887e-60c3f647e8b1

[buritobr]

What happened to the left and center-left parties? The sum of Linke+Grüne+SPD is not reaching 1/3. They were not performing too bad in the polls in 2020, as we can see here https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen-anhalt.htm

They fell in early 2021

[buritobr]

Yes, unfortunately, Sahra Wagenknecht has some views related to the pandemic close to Bolsonaro's views. Is she an important member of the party yet?

[buritobr]

My prediction

CDU 30, AFD 23, Linke 12, SPD 11, Grüne 10, FDP 8, Sonstige 6

German polls are usually accurate. So, it is better not to forecast a result very different to the polls

[buritobr]

Why it was considered a so important issue the CDU to have more votes than the AfD?
Even if the AfD got the plurality but not the majority, this party could not elected the minister president.

[buritobr]

The result was a disaster for the sum of left/center-left parties. Linke+SPD+Grüne had only 1/4 of the total vote. Sachsen-Anhalt is not a conservative state like Sachsen. I saw now in Wikipedia that the sum of red red green had ~1/2 of the total vote in Sachsen-Anhalt in 2006 and 2011.

The future of the left/center-left in Germany doesn't look like bright. According to the exit polls, Linke and SPD perform better in the group of >60 voters. In the west, the Linke performed better in the group of young voters, but this party has low share of vote in every age group. SPD performs better in the group of senior voters in the west too.

Unlike what is happening in the english speaking countries, in Germany, the millennials don't vote on the left of their parents and grandparents.

[buritobr]

Why it was considered a so important issue the CDU to have more votes than the AfD?

Because many people, journalists included, don't understand our political system and care for symbolic "wins".

I would contest this. They care for symbolic 'wins' BECAUSE they know how the German political system works.

I didn't understand

[buritobr]

Second votes:

Which districts are richer? Which districts are poorer?

[buritobr]

Voting in Bremen 2023 according to demographic group

[buritobr]

There is still no official result, but this the last ARD projection from shortly after midnight:


The state of Bremen

SPD 29.8% (+4.9)
CDU 25.7% (-1.0)
Greens 11.9% (-5.5)
Left 11.1% (-0.2)
BIW 9.5% (+7.1)
FDP 5.2% (-0.7)


The city of Bremen only

SPD 29.8%
CDU 26.4%
Left 11.9%
Greens 11.7%
BIW 7.5%
FDP 5.2%


The city of Bremerhaven only

SPD 30.0%
BIW 22.4%
CDU 21.4%
Greens 13.0%
Left 6.1%
FDP 5.1%


So, basically the Greens lost massively to the SPD due to the recent heating debate, and their rather unpopular local lead candidate in this election. And the AfD lost almost all their votes to their local copycat BIW due to the former not being on the ballot (the BIW is actually a distant descendant of the Schill Party of the 2000s, while their lead candidate in this election was in fact a founding member of the AfD who left the party in '15).

That the city of Bremen is a (rare Western) Left Party stronghold and that Bremerhaven is a hotbed of right-wing populism is pretty standard for the state IMO.

But we could see in the polls that the Linke in the west is not the party of the working-class, it is a party of very educated people.