If Congress passes the current budget deal and averts a government shutdown/default, there is going to be enormous pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates come December. Central bankers see the specter of inflation everywhere.
That's not what the Fed was saying last month. That was a complete reversal thanks to pressure from the worldwide slowdown (i.e. everybody but us). Imo, I'd say March at the earliest, and that's being conservative since I really don't want to speak according to a time horizon.
Apparently I was so wrong I was right.
Yes you were right it would appear.
Still, I don't think that makes it the correct decision if they go this route (see: q3 projected gdp growth), but I am beginning to see the rationale based on new data (a big reversal from the last 2 months). 10 bps would be easy to tolerate for sure. At least they are remaining data driven rather than giving a timeframe in advance which was ridiculous.