If Howard Schultz runs, what percent of the vote does he get?

[The Mikado]

Major hurdles:

CA: 1% of registered voters (nearly 200k) by August 2020.

TX: 1% of voters in last presidential election (~90k) by May 2020.

FL: 1% of registered voters (upwards of 120k) by July.

NC: 2% of total votes for governor (~94k) by June.


I see no way he makes NC, for example.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Major hurdles:

CA: 1% of registered voters (nearly 200k) by August 2020.

TX: 1% of voters in last presidential election (~90k) by May 2020.

FL: 1% of registered voters (upwards of 120k) by July.

NC: 2% of total votes for governor (~94k) by June.


I see no way he makes NC, for example.

For FL and NC, are those months for this year?

[The Mikado]

Major hurdles:

CA: 1% of registered voters (nearly 200k) by August 2020.

TX: 1% of voters in last presidential election (~90k) by May 2020.

FL: 1% of registered voters (upwards of 120k) by July.

NC: 2% of total votes for governor (~94k) by June.


I see no way he makes NC, for example.

For FL and NC, are those months for this year?

2020.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Major hurdles:

CA: 1% of registered voters (nearly 200k) by August 2020.

TX: 1% of voters in last presidential election (~90k) by May 2020.

FL: 1% of registered voters (upwards of 120k) by July.

NC: 2% of total votes for governor (~94k) by June.


I see no way he makes NC, for example.

For FL and NC, are those months for this year?

2020.

Ah. Ok. That’s a lot better. Aren’t there some states where it’s easier to make a new party? I think Nader and McMullin had to do that in some states.

[The Mikado]

If Schultz is serious (if), he should put 10 million aside for a massive bribery campaign against Libertarian Party delegates. It wouldn't even be counter to LP activists ideas to sell out for cash. That'd get him on the ballot everywhere.

[Lachi]

Less than 1 percent. He won't get on the ballot in almost any big state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

1% at most. No one cares about this guy and he will have no appeal to any significant voter demographic.

[Senator Incitatus]

If he's willing to spend a good chunk of his fortune like Perot, I could see him getting as high as 10-15%.

[SN2903]

If he's willing to spend a good chunk of his fortune like Perot, I could see him getting as high as 10-15%.

[izixs]

If Schultz is serious (if), he should put 10 million aside for a massive bribery campaign against Libertarian Party delegates. It wouldn't even be counter to LP activists ideas to sell out for cash. That'd get him on the ballot everywhere.

Heck, with that money he could do the same thing with Green Party state contests/national convention and do the same thing. Get both ballot lines just by buying the time of people in places like Delaware which have literally dozens of people participating in the state contest. Just a matter of finding a hundred or so folks who don't mind pretending to be Green Party activists for an afternoon. Have them support the intended delegates.

The Green Party probably wouldn't even think of trying to divine why a bunch more people than usual showed up as they'd be happy to finally have a few more names to put on the mailing list. So probably pretty good odds he'd be able to get away with it and buy out the Green nomination. Or at least have a good go at it. They do have a whole bunch of delegates that just kind of pop into existence from the states that don't have contests. Still wonder how that works...

[Badger]

Less than 2%

[LabourJersey]

In all seriousness, less than 3% generously. Do people seriously think a fiscally right wing (like, one even farther right than the GOP’s economic policy) and socially liberal agenda has mass appeal?

It's interesting, because the opposite (fiscally left wing, socially conservative) really could have mass appeal.  Yet there's never an independent candidate proposing to run on that platform.

In a way that was George Wallace's campaign; pro-segregationist, but a normal New Deal Democrat on policy issues. He had more mass appeal than any 3rd party candidate has had since, so that proves your point

[Inmate Trump]

If he runs, there will be a #BoycottStarbucks movement among the left.

Anyway, I really don't see him getting more than 5% at the most.  Hillary Clinton won't be on the ballot, and Donald Trump will be on the ballot.  Provided the Democratic nominee is not hated more than Hillary (spoiler alert: he/she won't be), Shultz will be unable to get more than 5%, and that's being generous.  At this point, most Democratic voters don't see a third party candidate as a viable option since we all saw what sitting it out/voting for someone else did for us in 2016--the presumption that Hillary was going to win was strong enough so that a lot of people simply voted for Stein or someone else, or didn't vote at all; that won't be the case in 2020.

Could he do damage to the Democratic candidate?  Sure.  But unless something changes in our political landscape AND the Democratic nominee is utterly terrible, then I don't see a bunch of liberal voters swinging toward a candidate they all know won't win and they all realize would swing the election to Trump.

On the other hand, I could see a genuine case to be made that Shultz would attract a lot of Trump 2016 voters who are disappointed with his first term but can't bring themselves to vote Democratic.  He could wind up doing more damage to Trump.

[The Mikado]

Anyone putting the number below, at the very least, 8% has a serious mental deficiency. There is exactly 0 chance in hell he does worse than 8%

How the hell is Schultz going to get signatures of 89,932 Texan registered voters who didn't vote in either the Republican or Democratic Presidential Primary of 2020 by late May of that year?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The guy's platform is basically "don't raise my taxes", lol. Very appealing to middle class Americans.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Less than 2%