Rate the Early Primary States for Democrats

[ElectionsGuy]

Iowa: Toss-up (between Clinton and Sanders)
New Hampshire: Lean Sanders
Nevada: Likely Clinton
South Carolina: Safe Clinton

I'll also do super Tuesday states:

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Lean Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Clinton
Minnesota: Lean Clinton
Oklahoma: Safe Clinton
Tennessee: Safe Clinton
Texas: Likely Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Likely Clinton

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Iowa: Toss-up, but slight Clinton advantage
NH: Likely Sanders
Nevada: Likely Clinton
SC: Safe Clinton

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Toss up
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: Safe Clinton
Tennessee: Safe Clinton
Texas: Likely Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Likely Clinton

Assuming that Sanders stays in the race (and wins Massachusetts and those states that I listed as favoring him):

Kansas: Lean Clinton (Obama did really well here. Not sure of the demographics though. His mom being from Kansas may have also helped)
Nebraska: Lean Clinton
Louisiana: Safe Clinton

Maine: Lean Sanders (a must win if he wishes to continue)


After this, there's just too many unknowns. This all assumes that Biden stays out.

[Crumpets]

Assuming Biden doesn't run:

Iowa: Lean Clinton
NH: Likely Sanders
Nevada: Likely Clinton
SC: Safe Clinton

Alabama: Safe Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Lean Sanders
Georgia: Safe Clinton
Massachusetts: Tossup
Minnesota: Tossup
Oklahoma: Safe Clinton
Tennessee: Safe Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Safe Clinton

If Biden does run:

Iowa: Tossup
NH: Likely Sanders
Nevada: Likely Clinton
SC: Likely Clinton

Alabama: Likely Clinton
Arkansas: Safe Clinton
Colorado: Likely Sanders
Georgia: Likely Clinton
Massachusetts: Lean Sanders
Minnesota: Lean Sanders
Oklahoma: LikelyClinton
Tennessee: Likely Clinton
Texas: Safe Clinton
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: likely Clinton