Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018

[Ebsy]

Certainly a shock result to wake up to.

[jaichind]

BN 53 PH 51 PAS 4 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

One BN seat got uncalled ...

[Oryxslayer]

Anyone have a list of seas changing hands?

Too many to count right now. There will probably be a final list once we are done.

[Oryxslayer]

Here is where we stand as of now. The big remaining seat blocs are:

Kedah - swing
Urban KL - easy BH
Johor - apparently looking good for PHG
Sabah - ?

[jaichind]

If you look at the called seats in Peninsular Malaysia I would say BN is performing according to par relative to my model.  If you look at unofficial results then they are below par.  With Sarawak going far worse than BN could have imagined and unofficial results Sabah not going well for BN, BN is in very big trouble.  I think the odds now are more likely than not they fall below PH in total number of seats.  The question might soon become: Will PH get a majority on its own?

[Oryxslayer]

The seat uncalled for Bn was the first one called of the night, Kalabakan lol.

Titiwangsa in KL just flipped to PH from BN.

[Polkergeist]

Based on the unofficial leaders on both myundi websites linked earlier in the thread I get the following;

BN   67   (-27)
PH   72   (+24)
GS   8   (0)
OTH   7   (+3)

68 seats to report

Seat changes in brackets

PH looking to go above 100 seats at this point and BN below. If there is no dirty pool, PH to be the largest coalition IMO.

Unofficial results are flipping a few seats where BN was in the lead.

[jaichind]

Negeri Sembilan has fallen, claims Harapan

10.05pm: (Unofficial) In Seremban, Negeri Sembilan Harapan chief Aminuddin Harun declares that a "tsunami rakyat" has swept through the state

Interesting as we haven't had too many results from Negeri tonight..

It looked like at least in the state seats BN fell apart in Negeri Sembilan.  I expected the 8 seats to go BN 5 PH 3 (mostly due to gerrymandering) and it seems it will more likely go BN 4 PH 4.  But at the state level it seems the gerrymander failed and BN fell apart.

[jaichind]

BN 53 PH 55 PAS 4 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

I think PAS is ahead in at least 4 more seats in unofficial count.  It seems BN even going above 100 seats seems unlikely now.

[jaichind]

If PH comes into power and fixes the gerrymandering then there is only one way out for BN to survive on the long run in future elections:  A BN-PAS alliance.

[Oryxslayer]

If PH comes into power and fixes the gerrymandering then there is only one way out for BN to survive on the long run in future elections:  A BN-PAS alliance.

That will be hard because some of the malaportionment is part of the constitution  - Sabah and Sarawak by law need more seats they they should have. But I suspect PH will try to either reapportion the peninsula or add more seats overall. Not only as part of good government - something they ran on, but also to  build some institutional advantage for themselves as you do in these more illiberal democracies.  

[Polkergeist]

If PH comes into power and fixes the gerrymandering then there is only one way out for BN to survive on the long run in future elections:  A BN-PAS alliance.

A BN-PAS Alliance is the go-to plan for a hung parliament.

[jaichind]

If PH comes into power and fixes the gerrymandering then there is only one way out for BN to survive on the long run in future elections:  A BN-PAS alliance.

That will be hard because some of the malaportionment is part of the constitution  - Sabah and Sarawak by law need more seats they they should have. But I suspect PH will try to either reapportion the peninsula or add more seats overall. Not only as part of good government - something they ran on, but also to  build some institutional advantage for themselves as you do in these more illiberal democracies.  

I agree on Borneo seats.  But even within Borneo the seat sizes tend to have large deviations.  Same is true to less extent in Peninsular Malaysia.  All PH has to do is: Number of seats in Peninsular Malaysia is proportional to population and same within Borneo, even if the seat sizes within Borneo are small, as per the Constitution, as you point out, the BN advantage will mostly disappear.    

[jaichind]

If PH comes into power and fixes the gerrymandering then there is only one way out for BN to survive on the long run in future elections:  A BN-PAS alliance.

A BN-PAS Alliance is the go-to plan for a hung parliament.

Sure.  I was more talking about a pre-election alliance between BN and PAS if PH wins a majority and "fixes" a lot of the malapportionment in seats.

[Oryxslayer]

Sungai Besar is uncalled for BN.

Kalabakan is back for them though.

[Polkergeist]

If PH comes into power and fixes the gerrymandering then there is only one way out for BN to survive on the long run in future elections:  A BN-PAS alliance.

A BN-PAS Alliance is the go-to plan for a hung parliament.

Sure.  I was more talking about a pre-election alliance between BN and PAS if PH wins a majority and "fixes" a lot of the malapportionment in seats.

Of course. They may have to hook up much earlier to save Najib's PMship.

[jaichind]

Sungai Besar is uncalled for BN.

I had that seat as neck-to-neck but gave it to PH.  It seems it is working out that way, at least the neck-to-neck part.

[jaichind]

It is neck-to-neck in Johor P148 Ayer Hitam but it seems MCA's number two is slightly behind and most likely will lose his seat just like the MCA president.  This is a massacre.

[jaichind]

BN 53 PH 60 PAS 4 Pro-PH Ind 1 Unknown Ind 1

[jaichind]

Mahathir claims victory and says that PH will achieve a majority. 

Malaysian army denies rumors that troops have been deployed in the government district.

[Polkergeist]

Mahathir has given a press conference claiming PH has crossed 112 seat threshold

https://twitter.com/sroughne/status/994236486655488001

[jaichind]

Mahathir also claims that PH has won Selangor, Johor, Penang and Negeri Sembilan state assemblies.  He also says that WARISAN-PH has won Sabah state assembly.

Early results seems to indicate that PH most likely have captured Perak state assembly as well but the outstanding seats there have a more BN lean so we will see.

[Polkergeist]

PH gains in Johor in unofficial returns are looking good.

Seats Leading
PH 15
BN 8
Not yet reporting 3

All non-reporting seats have BN incumbents

[jaichind]

It seems Kedah is headed for a hung state assembly but with PH as largest bloc. 

[jaichind]

WARISAN's President Shafie Apdal is winning his seat, P189   Semporna, which he won in 2013 as the UNMO candidate with almost 80% of the vote.