UK local elections, 2 May 2019

[YL]

There are local elections in Northern Ireland and in much of England tomorrow.  "Much of England" here means most districts in two tier areas [1], most Metropolitan Districts [2] and most unitaries [3] but does not include London.  Some of these will have all up elections and some will have a third of seats up for election.

Low turnouts seem to be anticipated although I don't know whether that will be borne out.  Note that the abomination known as "The Brexit Party" has no candidates and that "Change UK - The Independent Group" also has no official candidates, although an Independent candidate in Sheffield is clearly aligned with them (i.e. he's married to one of their MPs) and is one of their European election candidates.

Andrew Teale has written his usual excellent preview.

[1] Excluding the handful of districts like Oxford which elect by halves (these go in even years), the odd other one on an anomalous cycle, and those in Northamptonshire and Buckinghamshire which are expected to be abolished soon.

[2] Not Birmingham, Rotherham or Doncaster

[3] Not Bristol, and not those which used to be county councils and remain on the county council election cycle.  It does include two new unitaries which replace the former structure of local government in Dorset, one called simply Dorset and one called Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole.

[YL]

Because of where I live, I like to talk about the Yorkshire Mets.  Only a couple are really that interesting in terms of control, but here goes.  In all of these a third of councillors, one in each ward, are up for election, and except in Leeds and Sheffield these are the councillors who were elected in 2015.  Rotherham and Doncaster have abandoned the thirds system and don't have elections this year.

Barnsley

Currently Lab 56, Con 4, Barnsley Independent Group 2, Lib Dem 1.  Obviously this is safe Labour (in the sense that it is literally impossible for them to lose control).  The Conservatives are defending the two Penistone wards and Labour everywhere else.  The Lib Dems managed to win a seat in Penistone West last year and are looking to make some more gains in the west of the borough.

Bradford

Currently Lab 51, Con 21, Lib Dem 9, Green 2, Independents 7.  Bradford politics actually seems to be settling down a bit, which probably means it is about to do something weird again.  Labour should be fairly comfortable this year.  As with many of the other boroughs, Bradford borough contains rather more than just Bradford, also containing Keighley and (rather ridiculously) Ilkley and Burley in Wharfedale the other side of Ilkley Moor.  One ward I would watch is Bingley, which had been safish Tory for years but Labour got quite close last year, and now the sitting Tory councillor left the party and is defending his seat as a "no description" candidate.

Calderdale

Currently Lab 24, Con 20, Lib Dem 6, Independent 1.  This borough contains the large town of Halifax, various smaller towns like Elland and Brighouse which are swing territory most of the time, and the Labour-leaning Upper Calder Valley around the liberal town of Hebden Bridge and its neighbouring settlements of Todmorden and Mytholmroyd.  Labour need two net gains for control, and they should get them; the Tories did well in 2015 and are defending in pretty much every marginal ward in the borough.  Luddendenfoot (the ward containing Mytholmroyd) and Sowerby Bridge were particularly comfortable Labour wins last year so look like the two most plausible Labour gains.

Kirklees

Currently Lab 38, Con 18, Lib Dem 8, Green 3, Independent 2.  This borough contains the "Heavy Woollen District" around Batley and Dewsbury, the large town of Huddersfield which is just about to lose its representation in the Premier League, and a rather picturesque chunk of the Yorkshire Pennines including the towns of Holmfirth ("Last of the Summer Wine") and Marsden.  Labour took control last year and while they have a couple of tricky defences, including one in Holme Valley North which they only won because the sitting Independent councillor defected to them, should hold on; there are also a couple of tricky Tory defences in Colne Valley and Denby Dale, wards where Labour hold the other two seats.

Leeds

Currently Lab 61, Con 22, Lib Dem 6, Green 2, a couple of Local Parties for Local People 8.  Leeds had new boundaries last year so the seats up for election are those of the candidates who came third then.  Labour are fairly comfortably in control but have a few tricky defences in wards where other parties also won seats last year so may well lose a few seats.  Note that the Leeds council area includes some places which most people wouldn't really regard as part of Leeds, and these provide most of the Tory councillors.

Sheffield

Currently Lab 52, Lib Dem 22, Green 6, UKIP 3, Independent (ChUK-TIG-aligned) 1.  Sheffield had new boundaries in 2016; these wards are those won by the candidates who came second that year.  Although the Council is not terribly popular, largely for reasons to do with trees, Labour aren't in danger of losing control this year, and while they may well lose the odd seat to the Greens or Lib Dems, they will hope to gain Stocksbridge & Upper Don from UKIP and regain the East Ecclesfield seat held by defector Steve Wilson.

Wakefield

Currently Lab 52, Con 11.  This is another council Labour can't actually lose control of this year.  They're defending 17 seats, one of which is in a ward (Wrenthorpe & Outwood West) the Tories won narrowly last year.

[YL]

Ah, local elections in England. Possibly the worst electoral system that anybody has come up with in the history of the world

Certainly one of the most chaotic!

Will there be any results declared tonight, or is everyone reporting tomorrow?

Estimated declaration times (UK time of course)

[YL]

Don't make too many conclusions yet; there are still a lot of results to declare.  The big picture of Lib Dems and minor parties doing well and Labour and the Tories not probably won't change, but some of the details will.

Let's look at some individual councils.  Here are the three Yorkshire Mets which have counted the results.

Labour had a bit of a nightmare in Barnsley.  They were defending 19 out of 21 wards, and lost 7 of them.  The biggest individual winners were the Lib Dems, who won Dodworth and Darton East from Labour and Penistone West from the Tories, all very easily; they seem to have found an effective campaigning team from somewhere.  The Barnsley Independent Group won Stairfoot from Labour, and independents not aligned with them won in Dearne South and Worsbrough.  But the worst thing was that UKIP splinter Democrats & Veterans won Monk Bretton and Darfield from Labour; I believe these are the first seats that party has won.

In Wakefield the Lib Dems also came from nowhere to win a ward easily, Knottingley, from Labour.  Independents also won two seats from Labour, and the Yorkshire Party came close in Pontefract North.  The Tories held what they had but didn't gain Wrenthorpe & Outwood West as they did last year.

In Leeds Labour did indeed lose a few seats, all to parties which already held other seats in the wards.  The Lib Dems won Rothwell and Weetwood, the Tories Pudsey (but Labour held neighbouring Calverley & Farsley, which was in the same category) and the Greens Farnley & Wortley.  No other changes. 

[YL]

On the other side of the Pennines, Greater Manchester:

Labour gained Trafford very easily; the Tories lost nine of the 13 seats they were defending, six to Labour, two to the Lib Dems and one to the Greens, most very comfortably.

Bolton, on the other hand, was bad for Labour and is now firmly under No Overall Control.  The main gains were by localist parties Farnworth and Kearsley First and Horwich and Blackrod First who now have seven seats between them, but the Tories made a net gain of one and the Lib Dems two.  UKIP held a seat they were defending.

In Oldham Labour regained two wards from ex-Labour incumbent councillors and Saddleworth North from the Tories (in a fairly close four way result, with a localist party second and the Lib Dems not that far behind in fourth) but lost Failsworth East to an Independent, while the Lib Dems gained Saddleworth West & Lees from the Tories.  Labour are comfortably in control.

Tameside also remains safely Labour.  They narrowly gained Hyde Werneth from the Tories but lost Ashton Waterloo to the Greens, who weren't previously represented on the Council.

Stockport remains No Overall Control, with a noticeable advance by the Lib Dems who gained five seats from the Tories but lost one to Labour.

[YL]

Sheffield: Labour lost several seats to the Lib Dems and Greens, though picked one up from UKIP.  There's now a chance Labour might lose control next year.

Calderdale: Labour won the seats they needed and more, and took control easily.

Kirklees: Mixed results here.  Labour lost a couple of seats to the Lib Dems, and lost the ex-Independent seat in Holme Valley North and another seat to an ex-UKIP figure standing as a Heavy Woollen District Independent, but they gained Colne Valley and Holme Valley South from the Tories, so maintained control.

[YL]

Sheffield.  Winning party and lead.

[YL]

I share Al's disdain for over-emphasising the very crude measurement which is raw numbers of seats.  But as far as the Tories are concerned, if you go around spinning that you are worried about losing 800 seats and then lose 1300, you have either had a very bad result or are hopeless at expectation management.

Are there more bad Labour councils around than there ought to be?  Bolton, Sunderland, Derby (not Labour any more but still suffering the after-effects), probably now Barnsley...