2020 Libertarian Nomination

[Enduro]

Who do see winning? Who else runs?

[Enduro]

We have one announced candidate, and he's popular among radicals: Adam Kokesh. 95+% chance he stays in.

Austin Petersen has said publicly that he'll considering running, but only if one of his "heroes" doesn't run. He named 3 "heroes": John Stossel, Andrew Napolitano, and Justin Amash. I doubt any of them run on the LP ticket (although Amash could make a long shot run at the GOP nod). So Austin Petersen is 50+% likely to run IMO.

In terms of other big names besides Petersen's heroes, I doubt Johnson, McAfee, Ventura, or Weld run. <5% chance on each.

We could get a random celebrity that nobody saw coming, too. Vince Vaughn? Drew Carey? Jimmy Wales? Krist Novoselic? Teller? Trey Parker? Mark Cuban? All are unlikely, but I wouldn't have predicted a McAfee '16 run either, and any of them could come out on top in a race against just Kokesh and maybe Petersen.

So, my prediction is a race featuring Kokesh vs. Petersen vs. a random surprise. Count me as undecided between Petersen and random surprise. A Kokesh run could get awful fast, and I doubt I could support him in the general.

I pretty much agree with you, but I also see Sarvis making a run for it.

[Enduro]

We have one announced candidate, and he's popular among radicals: Adam Kokesh. 95+% chance he stays in.

Austin Petersen has said publicly that he'll considering running, but only if one of his "heroes" doesn't run. He named 3 "heroes": John Stossel, Andrew Napolitano, and Justin Amash. I doubt any of them run on the LP ticket (although Amash could make a long shot run at the GOP nod). So Austin Petersen is 50+% likely to run IMO.

In terms of other big names besides Petersen's heroes, I doubt Johnson, McAfee, Ventura, or Weld run. <5% chance on each.

We could get a random celebrity that nobody saw coming, too. Vince Vaughn? Drew Carey? Jimmy Wales? Krist Novoselic? Teller? Trey Parker? Mark Cuban? All are unlikely, but I wouldn't have predicted a McAfee '16 run either, and any of them could come out on top in a race against just Kokesh and maybe Petersen.

So, my prediction is a race featuring Kokesh vs. Petersen vs. a random surprise. Count me as undecided between Petersen and random surprise. A Kokesh run could get awful fast, and I doubt I could support him in the general.

I pretty much agree with you, but I also see Sarvis making a run for it.

Isn't that the guy who ran in VA for governor and wanted black boxes installed in vehicles, similar to a mileage tax?

Yeah, he's not libertarian, but he's popular in the party for some reason.