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Author Topic: 2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 170725 times)
philly09
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« on: July 05, 2022, 10:42:53 PM »
Gotta get the youth vote out.
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philly09
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Posts: 1,108
« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2022, 01:58:28 AM »
Big Village
July 1-3. 1,008 A

Registered Voters:

Democrats 47.4%   

Republicans 41.6%

Would Not Vote 6.4%

Third Party Candidate 4.6%

Adults:

Democrats 40.5%

Republicans 36.3%

Would Not Vote 17.9%

Third Party Candidate 5.3%

This the highest the Democrats have gotten in these polls so far.
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philly09
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Posts: 1,108
« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2022, 02:04:37 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 06, 2022, 08:40:42 AM
The GCB question in the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker had an error and has been removed from their data for surveys prior to this week, with the following disclaimer:

The results for the question, "If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" that were previously included in this document are no longer being reported after YouGov discovered a programming error that resulted in some registered voters not being asked the question. Since the people asked were not a representative sample of all registered voters, the data does not meet YouGov’s standards and has been removed.

The problem has been corrected for this week's survey, which shows D 43, R 40.

With 11% Not sure.

40I, 32D, 27R

35% voted for Biden, 33% Did not vote, and 32% voted for Trump.

64% say Biden won legit, 36% say he did not. An improvement.

Democrats need to get the I's. If the 11% goes for them it's D14
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philly09
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2022, 04:22:01 PM »
Dave notes the shift.
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philly09
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Posts: 1,108
« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2022, 02:34:37 AM »
Quote from: MRS DONNA SHALALA on July 27, 2022, 07:21:09 AM


Poll is from a Republican partisan org, and has Biden's approval at 36/54.


Was 45-44 R+1 in May. Democrats have also gained a few points in "Confidence to handle issues" though the R's still lead.
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philly09
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Posts: 1,108
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2022, 12:27:06 AM »
Data For Progress of all places has R+3 48-45. Taken July 13-25.
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philly09
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Posts: 1,108
« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2022, 07:31:48 PM »
The Youth Vote is energized.
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philly09
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Posts: 1,108
« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2022, 10:32:03 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on August 03, 2022, 05:38:48 PM
Yeah even if you think the polls are still underestimating Republicans, it's completely undeniable that there has been a post-Dobbs shift in favor of the Democrats.

What about underestimating Independents who are choosing Democrats over Republicans.
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philly09
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Posts: 1,108
« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2022, 08:55:09 PM »
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philly09
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Posts: 1,108
« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2022, 07:26:58 PM »
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philly09
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« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2022, 07:31:39 PM »
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philly09
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2022, 12:48:15 AM »
Rassmussen's GCB has narrowed from R+5 46-41 to R+3 46-43. And this is from July 29th.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_aug05
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philly09
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Posts: 1,108
« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2022, 03:45:28 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 10, 2022, 01:25:25 PM
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on August 10, 2022, 01:23:10 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 10, 2022, 12:53:08 PM

Conversely, Politico/Morning Consult ticks down a tad, to D+1 (44/43) this week. I believe it was D+3 or D+4 last week.
Politico/Morning Consult was D+2 last week.

Ah, you're right. Must be thinking about a few weeks ago. Then likely just a MoE move.

I noticed the number of "Don't Know/No Opinion" has gone back up in the MC poll, bringing the Democrats number down.
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philly09
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« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2022, 03:46:05 PM »
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philly09
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« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2022, 07:56:12 PM »

It's RV not LV.
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philly09
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« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2022, 10:43:02 PM »
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philly09
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« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2022, 03:36:57 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 24, 2022, 08:16:36 AM
Morning Consult/POLITICO has GCB at D+5, 47-42. Up 1 from last week (46-42)

I believe D+5 is the highest it's been in quite some time.

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/08/23145441/2208119_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2_08-24-22_SH.pdf

And the Democrats have somewhat narrowed the gap with rural voters, it's R+9 now, ditto for White people. Hispanics are almost above 60% again.
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philly09
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Posts: 1,108
« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2022, 09:43:05 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on August 26, 2022, 09:26:44 PM
Wow! From the Gold Standard Big Village poll too!


Overall, it's this.

GCB: D 44(+3) R36(-1)  Adults: D 43.6% R 35.7%  RV; D 48.3%, R 40.8%
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philly09
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« Reply #18 on: August 31, 2022, 11:14:30 PM »
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philly09
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« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2022, 11:28:02 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on August 31, 2022, 11:14:30 PM


I know, I just thought it was funny that so many tonight are RT'ing it.
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philly09
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Posts: 1,108
« Reply #20 on: September 06, 2022, 04:47:39 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 06, 2022, 04:30:02 PM
OnMessage (R) / Senate Opportunity Fund

GCB R+2, 46-44

They had this at R+4 (47-43) in their last poll in mid-August

More movement towards Dems

https://senopportunity.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/2022-09-31-PUBLIC-DECK-National-SOF.pdf

And Biden's approval is at 48/48
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philly09
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Posts: 1,108
« Reply #21 on: September 25, 2022, 09:47:37 PM »
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philly09
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« Reply #22 on: September 26, 2022, 02:45:00 AM »
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philly09
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« Reply #23 on: September 26, 2022, 05:04:14 PM »

"But there are warning signs for Democrats. For one, 59% of women and 49% of men say they would prefer Republicans to control Congress, and 40% of Hispanics lean toward Republicans, compared to 52% leaning toward Democrats. While Dems still have a lead among Hispanics, that crucial demographic has become far more favorable toward Republicans in recent years."
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philly09
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« Reply #24 on: October 12, 2022, 07:00:44 AM »
Big Village, LV

D:50

R:45
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