'06 House: Will there be party switches?

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think my point has already been made - none of the above will switch.  Most of them are Southern Democrats who have already been in the minority for a while and faced agressive challenges from the GOP at home.  They had the chance to change parties in 2002 and 2004 which would obviously have seemed much more fortuitous then. 

Although Cuellar and Melancon are both conservative Democrats I still do not think they have a motive for doing so. Cuellar served as Texas Secretary of State under Rick Perry from 2000-2002 and still chose to run as a Democrat for Congress in 2004.  While Melancon made the choice to run as a Democrat in 2004 and won by something like 569 votes against Billy Tauzin, Jr - it makes no sense for him to defect now.  I actually remember The Hill asking Democratic members representing Districts won by Bush if they were comfortable with Pelosi as a potential Speaker and almost all of them were - I think most Democrats see her as competent and are grateful to her for getting them where they are in a position to retake the House.