NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[wbrocks67]

Latest update, via CNN

Phil Murphy 1,236,066 (50.3%)
Jack Ciattarelli 1,200,682 (48.9%)
~88% in

Blue counties still appear to have stuff out

Phil Murphy 1,245,196 (50.4%)
Jack Ciattarelli 1,205,387 (48.8%)
~88% in

Murphy +39,809 (1.6%)

[wbrocks67]

Simultaneously hilarious that Sweeney's career was ended by a political layperson and upsetting that said layperson has some pretty terrible views.

Honestly, this isn't a totally bad thing b/c it raises the probability that this guy will lose next time he's up and we can elect someone a lot better than Sweeney to that position.

[wbrocks67]

Murphy now up +1.8%

Murphy (D) 1,254,349 (50.5%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,210,068 (48.7%)

44,281 vote lead

Depending on what's out, if this ends up at +3/+4, it won't be wildly out of touch with the final polls which averaged like +7. And unfortunately for all of us, Trafalgar will be very right.

[wbrocks67]

Murphy's lead is literally nearly 2% with Dem counties still <90%. Is he for real?

[wbrocks67]

Murphy now up +1.9%

Murphy (D) 1,259,517 (50.5%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,211,949 (48.6%)

~89% in

Murphy with 47,588 lead

[wbrocks67]

There's only 3/4K more votes than this right now, does this mean barely any VBMs have been counted in Essex?

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1456415947070316551

[wbrocks67]

Murphy (D) 1,271,272 (50.8%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,214,732 (48.5%)

Murphy lead up to +2.3% (56,540 votes)

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, while Murphy obviously did much worse than his 2017 performance, this is like 2020 allover again, where the order of the ballots being counted are making this race appear a lot closer than it really was.

A 3-4% win would be a "Squeaker" compared to Murphy's 2017 win, yes, but a lot of the prevailing narrative right now is that he won by the skin of his teeth, which is... not correct, as he'll likely be at least 100K+ votes over Ciattarelli by the end of this.

[wbrocks67]

Update-

Murphy (D) 1,280,877 (50.8%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,218,262 (48.3%)

Murphy lead: +2.5% (62,615 votes)

~90% in

[wbrocks67]

CNN has

Murphy (D) 1,285,289 (50.9%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,219,885 (48.3%)

Murphy +2.6% (65,404 votes)

However, they still have many counties with <95% reporting. Can't tell if it's a reporting error on CNN's site or there's actually quite a bit of VBM left to count.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like there's at least 57,000 votes left to be counted

"Democrats argue that there aren’t enough votes for Ciattarelli to overcome Murphy’s lead.  They estimate 57,400 uncounted provisional ballots and say Murphy has won 68.1% of vote-by-mail ballots that have come in since Wednesday."

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/murphy-campaigns-tells-ciattarelli-to-admit-he-lost/

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this is a mess. There's apparently tens of thousands of ballots left to count and New Jersey's count hasn't moved in days now.

[wbrocks67]

CNN has

Murphy (D) 1,285,289 (50.9%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,219,885 (48.3%)

Murphy +2.6% (65,404 votes)

However, they still have many counties with <95% reporting. Can't tell if it's a reporting error on CNN's site or there's actually quite a bit of VBM left to count.

A few more votes today, increasing Murphy lead to +2.7%

Murphy (D) 1,288,462 (51.0%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,220,907 (48.3%)

This batch went Murphy 3,173 / Ciatarelli 1,022

Who knows if its VBM or provisional though

[wbrocks67]

I think VBM. They won't start counting provisionals until all VBM ballots are received, and today was the deadline.

You're right - I wonder if counties have actually counted any of the post-election day VBMs yet, or those are going to be processed starting tomorrow?

[wbrocks67]

Well, a win is a win, but 2,7-2,8% win in Biden+16 state is nothing to brag about. New Jersey is quintessential suburban state, so at least some "backward" (to Republican party) movement of educated suburbanites possibly takes place. Combined with energization of Republican electorate and continued Democratic bleeding among WWC and in rural areas - situation is serious, to put it mildly..

They're not done counting

[wbrocks67]

I think VBM. They won't start counting provisionals until all VBM ballots are received, and today was the deadline.

You're right - I wonder if counties have actually counted any of the post-election day VBMs yet, or those are going to be processed starting tomorrow?

They've been counting them as they come in.

Have they uploaded results though? There were no updates on Sat or Sun, and only a few counties reported extra results yesterday (mostly from Hudson though)

[wbrocks67]

A few more votes today, increasing Murphy lead to +2.7%

Murphy (D) 1,288,462 (51.0%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,220,907 (48.3%)

This batch went Murphy 3,173 / Ciatarelli 1,022

The slow and painful count continues, Murphy lead now +2.8% (70,670 votes)

Murphy (D) 1,295,739 (51.0%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,225,069 (48.2%)

Latest votes went Murphy 7,277 - Ciattarelli 4,162

[wbrocks67]

The slow and painful count continues, Murphy lead now +2.8% (70,670 votes)

Murphy (D) 1,295,739 (51.0%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,225,069 (48.2%)

Latest votes went Murphy 7,277 - Ciattarelli 4,162

Murphy up to +2.9% (73,814 votes)

Murphy (D) 1,304,954 (51.1%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,231,140 (48.2%)

[wbrocks67]

Murphy up to +2.9% (73,814 votes)

Murphy (D) 1,304,954 (51.1%)
Ciattarelli (R) 1,231,140 (48.2%)

Murphy hits +3.0% (+76,634 votes)

Phil Murphy (D) 1,326,713 (51.1%)
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 1,250,079 (48.1%)

[wbrocks67]

Murphy hits +3.0% (+76,634 votes)

Phil Murphy (D) 1,326,713 (51.1%)
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 1,250,079 (48.1%)

Murphy up to +3.2% (82,985 vote lead)

Phil Murphy (D) 1,336,177 (51.2%)
Jack Ciattarelli (R) 1,253,192 (48.0%)

[wbrocks67]

this should teach dems:


NO

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LOCKDOWNS!!

"lockdowns" did not exist in New Jersey, nor anywhere in the country, in 2020