Bright spots for Democrats? (user search)
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  Bright spots for Democrats? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Bright spots for Democrats?  (Read 2623 times)
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


« on: November 04, 2020, 12:19:11 PM »

That cities and big suburbs are continuing their trend strongly to Democrats.  Biden's probably going to win the popular vote by a much larger margin than Hillary and definitely a majority of the vote.

Like you said, CO and VA are now clearly blue states.  If you look at what happened in Virginia, the electorate got much more polarized.  Trump got massive margins in rural Virginia but Biden expanded the NoVa lead considerably.  As I thought he would he's hovering around 70% of the vote in Fairfax county.  He's probably gonna net well over half a million votes out of NoVa alone and there's still a lot of vote to be counted in urban areas. 

This does not bode well for Georgia and North Carolina's trajectory if you are the GOP.

What this means is that long term extremely conservative senators are going to be replaced with extremely liberal ones in the South.

I'd rather have that + moderate Republicans in the upper midwest going forward.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2021, 08:45:46 PM »

Wow this was peak Atlas doomerism.  Dems all upset over an election in which they won the WH and eventually took back the senate.  I guess the polls got peoples hopes up too high or something.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2021, 11:43:53 PM »

Wow this was peak Atlas doomerism.  Dems all upset over an election in which they won the WH and eventually took back the senate.  I guess the polls got peoples hopes up too high or something.

The doomerism was more about the future of the 2020s, which will likely end up being correct.

Yeah not seeing that.  GOP slightly improved with low propensity hispanic voters.  Dems improved with highly educated, high propensity, suburban voters.  It's clear which is better for the 2020's.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


« Reply #3 on: September 13, 2021, 09:25:07 PM »

Will those highly educated suburban voters stick with Dems without Trump in the White House?  Virginia will answer that this November.

Those "highly educated suburban voters" in VA were considerably more Democratic than other "highly educated suburban voters" in other (actually competitive or traditionally R) states even before Trump, so no, it won’t.

Didn’t the voters that you are referring to vote for Biden but generally vote Republican downballot even in 2020 (except for maybe Mark Kelly and Abigail Spanberger)? 

You're talking to someone who has probably never set foot in Virginia, has no understanding of it's politics, and thinks Arlington is in Fairfax County.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,169


« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2021, 09:27:03 PM »

Wow this was peak Atlas doomerism.  Dems all upset over an election in which they won the WH and eventually took back the senate.  I guess the polls got peoples hopes up too high or something.

The doomerism was more about the future of the 2020s, which will likely end up being correct.

Yeah not seeing that.  GOP slightly improved with low propensity hispanic voters.  Dems improved with highly educated, high propensity, suburban voters.  It's clear which is better for the 2020's.

Will those highly educated suburban voters stick with Dems without Trump in the White House?  Virginia will answer that this November.

Yes.  MT Treasurer's incorrect predictions aside, educated voters don't tend to like a party that doesn't take vaccines seriously, thinks the world was created in 7 days, and wants to outlaw abortions.
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