Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[DC Al Fine]

With the Liberals clearly leaning in the progressive direction and conservatives pandering more to their base, does anyone think there are enough Blue Liberals/Red Tories out there that a party that appealed to them could gain traction or are we in a more polarized era where such demographic is not as big as it once was.  Also will be interesting to see which party or how they split next election.  I tend to assume around 50-60% of Canadians sit left of centre, 30% are part of the conservative base while 10-15% make up those Blue Liberals/Red Tories, but what are others thoughts?

There's no group more coddled, more overrepresented in our institutions than the fiscally conservative socially liberal crowd. They don't need a new party. Besides, they aren't concentrated enough to win seats. It's be like the Chretien era Tories without the Atlantic regionalism.

[EPG]

With the Liberals clearly leaning in the progressive direction and conservatives pandering more to their base, does anyone think there are enough Blue Liberals/Red Tories out there that a party that appealed to them could gain traction or are we in a more polarized era where such demographic is not as big as it once was.  Also will be interesting to see which party or how they split next election.  I tend to assume around 50-60% of Canadians sit left of centre, 30% are part of the conservative base while 10-15% make up those Blue Liberals/Red Tories, but what are others thoughts?

I would guess people content with the historic Liberal party are probably content with Trudeau.

[136or142]

If Maxime Bernier were removed from the Conservative caucus how likely would he be to be reelected as an independent in Beauce?

[Hatman 🍁]

If Maxime Bernier were removed from the Conservative caucus how likely would he be to be reelected as an independent in Beauce?

Worked for his father.

Not sure if it would for Maxime though. The farmers in the riding hate him.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/rachaiello/status/1030102819230150656

[Hatman 🍁]

People need to stop speculating about early elections. They never come true. Trudeau is not that stupid; he knows he would lose if he went against the fixed election date.

[DC Al Fine]

If Maxime Bernier were removed from the Conservative caucus how likely would he be to be reelected as an independent in Beauce?

Worked for his father.

Not sure if it would for Maxime though. The farmers in the riding hate him.

People that go that route and win usually have something special going for them. Casey had the equalization issue,  Arthur had his radio show and the Tories giving him a pass etc etc. I think Bernier would do better than the average Indy running for re-election, but I doubt he has anything to put him over the top.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bernier has a lot "going for" him, but just as much (if not more) "going against" him too.

[mileslunn]

Bernier has a lot "going for" him, but just as much (if not more) "going against" him too.

I think if Canada weren't in a trade war with the US, his argument on supply management might gain more traction but right now with the US attacking us in other areas people are in no mood to make any concessions.  Even Brian Mulroney has called for supply management to be phased out as has Martha Hall Findlay who is a Liberal so he is not totally alone on this and the fact he comes from a rural riding with a lot of dairy farmers makes it more gutsy.  Nonetheless he is too much of a free market fundamentalist so he may have some appealing ideas, but I don't think there is a big appetite for a free market fundamentalist.

[RogueBeaver]

Quite a few Tory MPs want Bernier gone, but not yet a majority.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/RosieBarton/status/1032604529949401088

https://twitter.com/edithhammond/status/1032622217681625089

[DC Al Fine]

Wonder what that will be about?

[RogueBeaver]

He's leaving, possibly to join the Libertarians.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/RobertFife/status/1032639003407908865

[DC Al Fine]

Well let's hope it doesn't take off. The right's only been united for fifteen years. You'd think most Tories would remember the folly of schism.

[2952-0-0]

The official theme song of the Halifax convention:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQzU6mXwrHw

[mileslunn]

Well let's hope it doesn't take off. The right's only been united for fifteen years. You'd think most Tories would remember the folly of schism.

I don't think it will, BC Conservatives, Trilium Party in Ontario all went nowhere so suspect same here.  If the Tories don't win in 2019, which is a strong likelihood, it will be because they were unable to convince enough middle of the road voters to support them not because of some split.

[2952-0-0]

Neither of these two parties were founded by the frontrunner of the previous leadership race who then lost by the narrowest possible margin, and then spent the next year sniping at the leader. And even if Bernier's party fizzles out, Joe and Jane in Oakville will have heard that Andrew Scheer is a bumbler who no-comments out of every controversy.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/althiaraj/status/1032673390593638400

[DC Al Fine]

Bernier speaking now. Mainly talking about supply management.

[mileslunn]

Suspect it goes nowhere.  The problem with the Tories is not they are not conservative enough, the problem is they are too conservative so until either people get so tired of the Liberals they want change like Ontario or they move towards the centre they will remain in opposition split or no split.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/MercedesGlobal/status/1032690381647798272

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/ToddDohertyMP/status/1032679990213652484

https://twitter.com/stephenharper/status/1032712661853585408

https://twitter.com/bruceanderson/status/889112208751329280

[2952-0-0]

The way this infighting has played out has been very Canadian. In Britain, Bernier and Scheer would be openly feuding for weeks with their supporters openly commenting to tabloids. In Australia, Bernier would have called for a surprise leadership vote after one or both byelection losses. In the US, the two would be relentlessly touring Iowa drumming up support for next January's caucus. In France, the two would have viciously traded insults before Bernier goes out with a bang and Scheer faces an open rebellion.

But here, the tensions have been simmering for weeks and after Bernier goes, the entire party establishment closes ranks.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is it brave or foolhardy for a Quebec based politician to have ending supply management as one of his signature issues?