Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[MaxQue]

We also got evidence yesterday in the House than Kinder Morgan are tax dodgers. Over the last 3 years, they paid one million in taxes on an income of 360 millions, which is an effective tax rate of 0.3%.

[mileslunn]

Nanos this week for the first time since September 2015 shows the Tories in the lead and at 36%, that is the highest the Tories have had in their tracking since 2012.  I think we can read a few things from this.

Trudeau: He can still win next year, but this should be a wake up call he doesn't have the election in the bag and so needs to actually achieve something noteworthy, not just rely on his opponents to screw up.

Scheer: Up until now he has largely pandered to his base as the thinking seemed to be it wouldn't be until 2023 they would be able to win, so the goal was to hold what they have and pick up a few marginal seats.  I think now that polls show they have a chance to win, they need to pivot towards the centre since if they run on a fairly right wing platform the lead will disappear once the campaign starts, but if they pivot towards the centre, they might have a shot although a Tory majority is still pretty unlikely unless they can swing Quebec there way.

Looking at regions I see the following:

Atlantic Canada: Liberals still well ahead, but not as massive as in 2015 so would probably win most of the seats, but not a clean sweep.  The Tories would probably retake a few of their traditional strongholds but still finish well behind in seats.  NDP may or may not win a seat or two here, depends on candidates.

Quebec: Liberals are up slightly from 2015, but well down from a year ago so still would make gains here, but cannot afford to fall any further and with expected losses in English Canada, making gains in Quebec is key.  Tories are also up a bit, but still probably only 20-25% range and seat wise that would make little difference.  Whether they get 15% or 25% in Quebec, makes little difference in seats.  They have to cross the 30% mark before they start flipping lots of seats.  BQ in crisis and NDP struggling so I suspect NDP seats will be more ones with strong incumbents.

Ontario: It appears Tories are clearly ahead here and would win slightly more than half of their seats while Liberals would lose a lot and NDP get more or less what they would now.  That being said I think depending on the outcome of the Ontario election, those are likely to shift a fair bit in the next six months.

Sask/Manitoba: Tories well ahead here followed by Liberals and NDP.  On the other hand seatwise might not change a lot as Tories tend to have massive blowouts in the rural sections so it will come down to Regina, Saskatoon, and Winnipeg which could still go either way.  Liberals and NDP are irrelevant in many seats, but still competitive in the three main cities plus two Northern ridings.

Alberta: Tories have a gigantic lead so would win most seats, but NDP and Liberals still might have chances in central Calgary and central Edmonton which have much more left leaning demographics than the rest of the province.

British Columbia: Liberals still competitive here, but Tories now in a tie.  NDP a bit back.

Off course polls will undoubtedly change between now and October 21, 2019, so this is just where they stand now, not where they will end up.

[EPG]

Presumably Ontario will like the federal Liberals again once they elect Doug Ford. It seems like the only remaining iron law of politics, that they split their votes.

[mileslunn]

Presumably Ontario will like the federal Liberals again once they elect Doug Ford. It seems like the only remaining iron law of politics, that they split their votes.

True enough, but that assumes Ford will win.  While he has a slight edge on seats, I wouldn't count the NDP out.  If the NDP wins in Ontario, that is probably good news for the federal Tories.

[MaxQue]

Martine Ouellet only get 32% of votes in her confidence vote, is removed as Bloc leader.

[mileslunn]

Martine Ouellet only get 32% of votes in her confidence vote, is removed as Bloc leader.

Probably good news for the BQ, but damage might be done.  Somewhat bad news for the Tories as their recent uptick in Quebec support was mostly from BQ supporters.  Don't think many Liberal and especially NDP ones would go over to the Tories.  Although BQ a centre-left party, much of the progressive element left in 2011 for the NDP and some stayed NDP in 2015 while others went over to the Liberals.  Most who stayed with the BQ were more your older rural nationalist types thus why Conservatives had the best chance to pick them off.

[DC Al Fine]

Me thinks the damage is done. Even if the Bloc gets a semi credible, non-absolutist leader, most of the places they could salvage a caucus from are held by Quebec Debout MP's.

[DC Al Fine]

Or put another way:

If we do a quick and dirty adjustment by comparing the 2015 result to Grenier's average, the only Bloc won seats that have a hope of staying in non-federalist hands are Gill's and Plamondon's. Plamondon's is fine if he doesn't run (and he's 74 ) and he may not even retain it if the Bloc runs someone. That would leave Gill in Manicougan as an independent in all but name.

[DC Al Fine]

Paul Dewar has terminal brain cancer.

[ON Progressive]

Paul Dewar has terminal brain cancer.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger provincial poll has 37/28/19/9. CAQ leads in almost all regions except, naturally, the West Island.

[MaxQue]

Leger provincial poll has 37/28/19/9. CAQ leads in almost all regions except, naturally, the West Island.

Some of those regional numbers make no sense, like mine in Abitibi (CAQ 37, PQ 25, QS 15, PLQ 15).

[Mike88]

Nanos Research poll:

35.3% Lib (+1.2)
33.0% Con (-1.0)
22.0% NDP (+0.8 )
  4.8% Green (-0.6)
  4.1% BQ (-0.3)
  0.8% Others (-0.1)

No bounce, at all, for the Conservatives and a small increase for the NDP. Interesting.

[MaxQue]

Nanos Research poll:

35.3% Lib (+1.2)
33.0% Con (-1.0)
22.0% NDP (+0.8 )
  4.8% Green (-0.6)
  4.1% BQ (-0.3)
  0.8% Others (-0.1)

No bounce, at all, for the Conservatives and a small increase for the NDP. Interesting.

Why the Conservatives should get a boost? They were proven wrong about NAFTA.

[Mike88]

Nanos Research poll:

35.3% Lib (+1.2)
33.0% Con (-1.0)
22.0% NDP (+0.8 )
  4.8% Green (-0.6)
  4.1% BQ (-0.3)
  0.8% Others (-0.1)

No bounce, at all, for the Conservatives and a small increase for the NDP. Interesting.

Why the Conservatives should get a boost? They were proven wrong about NAFTA.

I though that the Ontario results would give a bounce to both the Conservatives and NDP. I know that the PC and the OLP aren't 100% aligned with the Federal Conservatives and Liberals, but still, Ontario is the biggest province in Canada.

[136or142]

Andrew Scheer removes Maxime Bernier from Tory front bench
'I have removed Maxime Bernier from the Official Opposition Shadow Cabinet, effective immediately'

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/maxime-bernier-removed-front-bench-1.4703609

[DC Al Fine]

Andrew Scheer removes Maxime Bernier from Tory front bench
'I have removed Maxime Bernier from the Official Opposition Shadow Cabinet, effective immediately'

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/maxime-bernier-removed-front-bench-1.4703609

Probably a good idea. Twitter spats aren't accomplishing anything for the party.

[136or142]

Andrew Scheer removes Maxime Bernier from Tory front bench
'I have removed Maxime Bernier from the Official Opposition Shadow Cabinet, effective immediately'

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/maxime-bernier-removed-front-bench-1.4703609

Probably a good idea. Twitter spats aren't accomplishing anything for the party.

I wonder if Bernier will run for the CAQ.

[MaxQue]

Nanos Research poll:

35.3% Lib (+1.2)
33.0% Con (-1.0)
22.0% NDP (+0.8 )
  4.8% Green (-0.6)
  4.1% BQ (-0.3)
  0.8% Others (-0.1)

No bounce, at all, for the Conservatives and a small increase for the NDP. Interesting.

Why the Conservatives should get a boost? They were proven wrong about NAFTA.

I though that the Ontario results would give a bounce to both the Conservatives and NDP. I know that the PC and the OLP aren't 100% aligned with the Federal Conservatives and Liberals, but still, Ontario is the biggest province in Canada.

If anything, this should help Liberals, Ontarians loves having different parties in power federally and provincially.

[MaxQue]

Andrew Scheer removes Maxime Bernier from Tory front bench
'I have removed Maxime Bernier from the Official Opposition Shadow Cabinet, effective immediately'

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/maxime-bernier-removed-front-bench-1.4703609

Probably a good idea. Twitter spats aren't accomplishing anything for the party.

Official reason is than he continues to attack Trudeau over supply management, while he agreed a few months ago to stop breaking the party line on that issue. Cross-party unity is needed on that question, given Trump's attacks on it, from what I understand.

[DC Al Fine]

Delacourt is speculating that Trudeau will call a snap election this summer to get a new mandate to deal with the Trump/Trade issue.

Really doubt he does it, but it's an interesting hypothetical.

[RogueBeaver]

Patemkin openly says he's considering running for Peel Region chair, having relocated to Mississauga with his fiance.

[DC Al Fine]

Elmer MacKay (Peter's father and Mulroney era cabinet minister) has endorsed Cecil Clarke for ND Tory leader.

[RogueBeaver]

Dippers pantsh**tting about this province again, renewed talk about deposing Singh and potential mass retirements. What's new is so far failed attempts by Grits to snatch some floor crossers.

[DC Al Fine]

Dippers pantsh**tting about this province again, renewed talk about deposing Singh and potential mass retirements. What's new is so far failed attempts by Grits to snatch some floor crossers.

Well at least they're doing better than the post-Charest Tories.