Canada General Discussion: Trudeau II

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Quick question: How many current fringe parties do you think would win seats if we switched to the Dutch system? (i.e. We know the major parties would break up and form new parties if we changed, but what about the current fringey types)

The Libertarians were already 2/3's of the way to a seat in 2015 despite only running 70 candidates, so I'm sure they'd get a couple seats. Christian Heritage didn't do well in 2015, but I'm sure they could tap into socons dissatisfied with the Tories if the system changed. Anyone else?

What specifically is the Dutch system?

Nationwide constituency, no threshold.

I could imagine a suite of parties getting in tbh - there would be astonishing low barier to getting on - the Communists, the Rhinos, the Marxists Leninists, the Pirates and the Animal Party would probably get their feet in the door. Assuming they get on the national ballot.

[DC Al Fine]

The CHP and Libertarians would probably win seats; don't think anyone else would.

As for splits, I think this would be a more interesting question. Honestly, I think only the Conservatives would, but not right away. Some socialists in the NDP would probably form their own party too and would win a few seats.

Agreed. I wonder if the Liberals would split? If they don't, we basically get Italy 1945-1990, where the big party makes a deal with a different opposition party each election. The other big question is hwo the Tories would split. Everyone keeps saying on PC/Reform lines, but I think that's a little antiquated (and let's be honest, what's really left of the old PC's in the Tories anyway). I would guess they split along orthodox conservative/populist lines.

Huh? I knew that was the Dutch Calvinist belt, but they're a minority among Evangelicals. Didn't know that SW Ontario had high numbers of Baptists/Pentecostals.

Outside Atlantic Canada, evangelicals in Canada are largely Mennonite or Dutch, no?

Nope. Evangelicals are disproportionately Mennonite/Reformed in Canada, but the American non-denom/Penetecostal/Baptist dominance is still there. Per the 2011 Household Survey, the population of groups that could be construed as Evangelical are: 

Generic Christian 1.475k (includes "born again" etc, but also lots of cultural Christians/non-evangelicals)
Baptist: 635k
Generic Protestant: 550k
Pentecostal: 478k
Mennonite: 176k
Dutch Reformed: 100k
Generic Evangelical 92k
Salvation Army: 71k
Adventist: 66k
Christian and Missionary Alliance: 51k
etc, etc.

[Hatman 🍁]

The CHP and Libertarians would probably win seats; don't think anyone else would.

As for splits, I think this would be a more interesting question. Honestly, I think only the Conservatives would, but not right away. Some socialists in the NDP would probably form their own party too and would win a few seats.

Agreed. I wonder if the Liberals would split? If they don't, we basically get Italy 1945-1990, where the big party makes a deal with a different opposition party each election. The other big question is hwo the Tories would split. Everyone keeps saying on PC/Reform lines, but I think that's a little antiquated (and let's be honest, what's really left of the old PC's in the Tories anyway). I would guess they split along orthodox conservative/populist lines.

I think the obvious split would be between social conservatives vs. libertarians (aka Sheer vs Bernier), but the Conservative Party doesn't have that many populists in their ranks (hence why Leitch didn't do well), but they there are lots of populists who vote Conservative. Our polling suggests a not insignificant percentage of Canadians have right-populist views. So, I could see a conservative populist movement forming from outside the Conservative Party.

[mileslunn]

The CHP and Libertarians would probably win seats; don't think anyone else would.

As for splits, I think this would be a more interesting question. Honestly, I think only the Conservatives would, but not right away. Some socialists in the NDP would probably form their own party too and would win a few seats.

Agreed. I wonder if the Liberals would split? If they don't, we basically get Italy 1945-1990, where the big party makes a deal with a different opposition party each election. The other big question is hwo the Tories would split. Everyone keeps saying on PC/Reform lines, but I think that's a little antiquated (and let's be honest, what's really left of the old PC's in the Tories anyway). I would guess they split along orthodox conservative/populist lines.

I think the obvious split would be between social conservatives vs. libertarians (aka Sheer vs Bernier), but the Conservative Party doesn't have that many populists in their ranks (hence why Leitch didn't do well), but they there are lots of populists who vote Conservative. Our polling suggests a not insignificant percentage of Canadians have right-populist views. So, I could see a conservative populist movement forming from outside the Conservative Party.

What about the market for a Blue Liberal/Red Tory type party which would be to the right of the Liberals but left of the Tories.  Certainly historically there was a large number of voters in this area but not sure how many today.  True some like the Ontario PCs under Brown and BC Liberals conquer this segment well but I think its more they have the right wing base locked up and need to find a way to pick up the additional votes to put them over the top.  In Europe you have many parties like this, in fact most parties in power would fall in this category.  Certainly post merger the Tories have swung rightward while the Liberals under Trudeau have swung leftward so I think there is a spot on the spectrum where your John Manley type Liberals and Joe Clark type Tories could form a party, but not sure if many would vote for it or are we too polarized.  In the UK, the Liberal Democrats are not far off the median voter but since they have no chance at winning people tend to go for whichever party they fear less of the main two (Labour vs. Tories) so would be interesting.

Do you know when Ekos will release the national numbers as I heard on TVO, Frank Graves saying the tracking has the Tories ahead federally unlike other polls?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, we just wrapped up a pretty big poll, and have already released dribs and drabs, but I'm not sure if and when we'll do a full release.

Something we should be releasing soon talks about what I mentioned in my last post vis-a-vis right wing populism in Canada, and will hopefully include some maps I made

[DC Al Fine]

Well, we just wrapped up a pretty big poll, and have already released dribs and drabs, but I'm not sure if and when we'll do a full release.

Something we should be releasing soon talks about what I mentioned in my last post vis-a-vis right wing populism in Canada, and will hopefully include some maps I made

Decent maps from a pollster? Ideological polling? Merry Christmas to Atlas haha.

[King of Kensington]

[the Conservative Party doesn't have that many populists in their ranks (hence why Leitch didn't do well), but they there are lots of populists who vote Conservative.

Yeah, the Conservatives are a pretty "orthodox" small-"c" conservative party. 

Kellie Leitch was a pretty dreadful populist though.  She had no charisma whatsoever and came across as reading Trump talking points from a teleprompter.

[136or142]

[the Conservative Party doesn't have that many populists in their ranks (hence why Leitch didn't do well), but they there are lots of populists who vote Conservative.

Yeah, the Conservatives are a pretty "orthodox" small-"c" conservative party. 

Kellie Leitch was a pretty dreadful populist though.  She had no charisma whatsoever and came across as reading Trump talking points from a teleprompter.

Kevin O'Leary didn't fully catch on either.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, we just wrapped up a pretty big poll, and have already released dribs and drabs, but I'm not sure if and when we'll do a full release.

Something we should be releasing soon talks about what I mentioned in my last post vis-a-vis right wing populism in Canada, and will hopefully include some maps I made

Decent maps from a pollster? Ideological polling? Merry Christmas to Atlas haha.

The plan is to have me make more maps in the future. Might as well use my interests for good use!

[DC Al Fine]

[the Conservative Party doesn't have that many populists in their ranks (hence why Leitch didn't do well), but they there are lots of populists who vote Conservative.

Yeah, the Conservatives are a pretty "orthodox" small-"c" conservative party. 

Kellie Leitch was a pretty dreadful populist though.  She had no charisma whatsoever and came across as reading Trump talking points from a teleprompter.

Kevin O'Leary didn't fully catch on either.

He wasn't really a proper Trumpist either. Much too libertarian. If you could mix Leitch's views with O'Leary's bombast, you would have had a solid populist candidate.

[Kingpoleon]

[the Conservative Party doesn't have that many populists in their ranks (hence why Leitch didn't do well), but they there are lots of populists who vote Conservative.

Yeah, the Conservatives are a pretty "orthodox" small-"c" conservative party. 

Kellie Leitch was a pretty dreadful populist though.  She had no charisma whatsoever and came across as reading Trump talking points from a teleprompter.

Kevin O'Leary didn't fully catch on either.

He wasn't really a proper Trumpist either. Much too libertarian. If you could mix Leitch's views with O'Leary's bombast, you would have had a solid populist candidate.

I liked O’Leary’s views...

[136or142]

An interesting enough year end interview between hack Post Media Columnist John Ivison and Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer.  

Andrew Scheer, in my opinion, continues to show his Scheer Stupidity by largely answering questions with vague references:  "I believe the problem with Liberals is that they don't care about the results of their policies, they just care about the intentions that they show.  They wrap themselves up in emotion about sending a signal about what they care about. The effects of their policies are usually terrible but they try to gloss over that."

No doubt this answer is partly inspired by the growing view that the Justin Trudeau Liberal government addresses a good number of issues through symbolism, but my guess is if Scheer had been asked which of these policies resulted in terrible effects he would have looked like a deer caught in the headlights.

Or, Andrew Scheer answers with right wing platitudes: "Here's what the Conservative Party stands for.  It's based on greater individual freedom of belief and a trust in free people making free decisions in a free market, not government control and government deciding things."

Interestingly, Ivison did test Scheer on this with a question about a specific government policy: does Scheer support the new law to ban (or limit) advertising to those under 13?

Scheer "I'll be voting against that bill.  I don't believe the government needs to help me the parent.  I can do that."

I wonder what outgoing Premier Brad Wall would say to Scheer about that:

Brad Wall:
“We’re a free-enterprise party. We believe in markets. But we also have to respect that Saskatchewan people aren’t really interested in ideology … they’re interested in results and they’re also interested in a government reflecting their priorities.”

I could be wrong, but I think most parents will be glad to see the result of having these sorts of advertisements banned, recognizing, unlike Andrew Scheer, that companies that heavily market to young children aren't dealing with adults capable of providing informed consent, which is actually an important principle for the proper workings of free markets.  Edit to add: this legislation is actually the work of Conservative Senator Nancy Greene Raine.

Of course, both Scheer and Wall are in opposition to the carbon tax.  

Finally, and I thought most interesting is Scheer's view of what Trump and the Republican Party are doing in the United States:  'At the same time, our biggest trading partner is trying to make its economy more competitive."

Recognizing that, of course, both Conservatives and blue Liberals would likely be in support of the lowering corporate tax rate especially those as (nominally) high as 35%, it certainly is interesting that Scheer regards the U.S adding an additional $100-150 billion a year to its deficit as well as gutting environmental and consumer regulations as making 'its economy more competitive.'

I think there is no question that Andrew Scheer Stupidity is completely in over his head. Nice smile though.

[136or142]

As an addendum:  what strikes me as the most clear in that interview and from seeing Scheer's leadership in the Commons during the last session, is Scheer has a clear philosophical direction when it comes to economics despite his reliance on vague generalities and right wing platitudes:  he is essentially a 'small government' U.S Republican.

A hack like Ivison is clearly mostly impressed with Scheer's platitudes of 'fighting for the average person and not being an elitist'  (refreshingly, at least in the published interview, Scheer, to his credit did not use the words 'elite' or 'elitist' even once)  but it is clear that Scheer's platitudes of being 'an average person' (unlike Prime Minister Justin Trudeau)  and fighting for 'freedom' are straight from the U.S Republican Party buzz word playbook.

Scheer's economic policies are clearly 'freedom for corporations.'  This is most evident in his party's opposition to the small business tax changes that took away benefits from the wealthiest small business owners and professionals, his opposition to the carbon tax, his opposition to banning advertising aimed at those under 13, and his apparent belief that gutting environmental and consumer regulations make "an economy more competitive."

[DC Al Fine]

It's a bit late, but CRA's quarterly Atlantic Canada poll was released in December:

Nova Scotia
Liberal: 38% (-7)
Tory: 29% (nc)
NDP: 27% (+5)

New Brunswick
Liberal: 47% (nc)
Tory: 28% (-4)
NDP: 11% (-1)
Green: 9% (+2)

Newfoundland
Liberal: 44% (+4)
Tory: 33% (nc)
NDP: 19% (-5)

Prince Edward Island
Liberal: 37% (-8)
Tory: 28% (+4)
Green: 25% (+7)
NDP: 11% (-1)

Obviously the PEI result is most interesting but who knows how that translates into seats. PEI is a crapshoot. Otherwise nothing too crazy.

[136or142]

It's a bit late, but CRA's quarterly Atlantic Canada poll was released in December:

Nova Scotia
Liberal: 38% (-7)
Tory: 29% (nc)
NDP: 27% (+5)

New Brunswick
Liberal: 47% (nc)
Tory: 28% (-4)
NDP: 11% (-1)
Green: 9% (+2)

Newfoundland
Liberal: 44% (+4)
Tory: 33% (nc)
NDP: 19% (-5)

Prince Edward Island
Liberal: 37% (-8)
Tory: 28% (+4)
Green: 25% (+7)
NDP: 11% (-1)

Obviously the PEI result is most interesting but who knows how that translates into seats. PEI is a crapshoot. Otherwise nothing too crazy.

I guess nothing came of the 2 Nova Scotia NDP executives resigning their positions.

[DC Al Fine]

It's a bit late, but CRA's quarterly Atlantic Canada poll was released in December:

Nova Scotia
Liberal: 38% (-7)
Tory: 29% (nc)
NDP: 27% (+5)

New Brunswick
Liberal: 47% (nc)
Tory: 28% (-4)
NDP: 11% (-1)
Green: 9% (+2)

Newfoundland
Liberal: 44% (+4)
Tory: 33% (nc)
NDP: 19% (-5)

Prince Edward Island
Liberal: 37% (-8)
Tory: 28% (+4)
Green: 25% (+7)
NDP: 11% (-1)

Obviously the PEI result is most interesting but who knows how that translates into seats. PEI is a crapshoot. Otherwise nothing too crazy.

I guess nothing came of the 2 Nova Scotia NDP executives resigning their positions.

Yeah. No one outside of political junkies cared.... Progressive wing of the NDP is more firmly in control there now with centrists on the outside looking in.

[RogueBeaver]

CP talks about sexual harassment on the Hill, a lot of harassers were fellow MPs.

[Hatman 🍁]

CP talks about sexual harassment on the Hill, a lot of harassers were fellow MPs.

To the surprise of no one in Ottawa. There are a lot of things that go down in this town that go unreported. The media feels much safer reporting on an MP using tax dollars to pay for a $10 glass of orange juice rather than any kind of sex scandal.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Conservatives kick Senator Lynn Beyak out of their caucus

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/ottawa/lynn-beyak-kicked-out-conservative-caucus-1.4474130

[Njall]

Conservatives kick Senator Lynn Beyak out of their caucus

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/ottawa/lynn-beyak-kicked-out-conservative-caucus-1.4474130

Good. But it’s still disappointing that Scheer didn’t do this much earlier. Beyak’s views on residential schools have been well-known for a while.

[Hatman 🍁]

There are so many Tory senators who should also get the boot. Next should be Nicole Eaton.

[DC Al Fine]

CP talks about sexual harassment on the Hill, a lot of harassers were fellow MPs.

To the surprise of no one in Ottawa. There are a lot of things that go down in this town that go unreported. The media feels much safer reporting on an MP using tax dollars to pay for a $10 glass of orange juice rather than any kind of sex scandal.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I can kind of understand taking one for the team, but reporting pervy messages from an opposing MP should be a slam dunk. There's no Tory/Lib/NDP news source that wants to make their opponents look bad?

[Hatman 🍁]

CP talks about sexual harassment on the Hill, a lot of harassers were fellow MPs.

To the surprise of no one in Ottawa. There are a lot of things that go down in this town that go unreported. The media feels much safer reporting on an MP using tax dollars to pay for a $10 glass of orange juice rather than any kind of sex scandal.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I can kind of understand taking one for the team, but reporting pervy messages from an opposing MP should be a slam dunk. There's no Tory/Lib/NDP news source that wants to make their opponents look bad?

Well, I was thinking more of things along the lines of infidelity and the like. There are so many rumours out there, but nothing in the news.

[mileslunn]

CP talks about sexual harassment on the Hill, a lot of harassers were fellow MPs.

To the surprise of no one in Ottawa. There are a lot of things that go down in this town that go unreported. The media feels much safer reporting on an MP using tax dollars to pay for a $10 glass of orange juice rather than any kind of sex scandal.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I can kind of understand taking one for the team, but reporting pervy messages from an opposing MP should be a slam dunk. There's no Tory/Lib/NDP news source that wants to make their opponents look bad?

Well, I was thinking more of things along the lines of infidelity and the like. There are so many rumours out there, but nothing in the news.

I am sure with the lifestyle politicians lead and the time away from work, this probably happens quite a bit.  Mind you infidelity as long as consensual shouldn't be an issue for the general public, yes maybe enough for their spouse creating a divorce, but doesn't matter to the public at large.  On the other hand sexual harassment that is serious.  It might though be smaller numbers in Canada than say US or UK simply due to turnover of MPs as only a handful of the current MPs were there a decade ago and I think a lot of it happened more in the past when there was less awareness of it.  In many ways the whole Clarence Thomas scandal was when sexual harassment actually got discussed and in some ways the turning point although much still happens since, but before that it was sadly widely accepted.

I think where it could be more newsworthy is in places where the margins are razor thin.  In the UK, if enough Tory or DUP MPs get nailed, they could lose their majority triggering another election.  In BC after the Kelowna West by-election is held (which the BC Liberals will almost certainly hold), you only need two NDP/Greens caught in this to bring the government down and same in Nova Scotia with their Liberals, whereas federally there is a big enough cushion that while embarrassing and looking bad no chance of the government falling.  In the US also big in the senate due to how close and the fact any seats the Democrats pick up before midterms there increases their chances of gaining control of the senate.  Won't change the house where GOP has a solid majority (which they can and likely will lose in midterms).

[DC Al Fine]

Kings North MLA John Lohr is running for the Nova Scotia PC leadership.

No news stories yet, but his website says he's running.

The only other candidate is Pictou East MLA Tim Houston, who has received the endorsement of five MLAs