UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

General Election Forecast (Week Three)

Taking the advice of members from last week, I am now doing England and Wales and Scotland as separate forecasts (and combining them after the forecasts)

Conservatives 268 (leading in 15)
Labour 243 (leading in 18)
Liberal Democrats 35 (leading in 3)
Scottish National Party 40 (leading in 4)
Plaid Cymru 3 (leading in 0)
Green Party 1 (leading in 0)
Others 20 (leading in 0)



Coalition Builder
Con + Lib Dem = 321 (with DUP / UUP supply and confidence) = 330

The Lib Dems would bite your hand off to get those 35 seats!

tbh, that seems quite unlikely that they'll reach a total that high in my opinion. I'd love to know where they are actually getting the last 5-10 or so. They'd be seriously lucky to be in a position to decide the majority.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

That's an awesome study, Vega. I'm actually surprised to see Labour picking up so many of the LD voters as I thought those were flocking more evenly to the Conservatives (and some to UKIP as a new protest vote). I know it doesn't make intuitive sense (especially given that they should be upset about the current coalition), but that's what I've been seeing touted for so long.

Hopefully the large number of outstanding Conservatives and Lib Dems come home to their parties. The right-leaners in particularly should notice that a vote for UKIP is effectively wasted even if they are unhappy with the EU stance.

I also love looking at that UKIP rainbow of hate. Un-be-lievable.