The Hill: Van Hollen targeting N.J. seats, but state GOP officials unafraid

[Keystone Phil]

LoBo will win easily unless Van Drew is nominated. If Van Drew gets it, it'll be close but the GOP will keep the seat. Whenever NJ 2 opens up, expect Van Drew to be the candidate and a real tough fight.

[Keystone Phil]

LoBo will win easily unless Van Drew is nominated. If Van Drew gets it, it'll be close but the GOP will keep the seat. Whenever NJ 2 opens up, expect Van Drew to be the candidate and a real tough fight.

What? You once mocked me for saying that NJ-2 would be a tossup once LoBiondo retired.

I knew that this would be brought up.

You said that looking it would be a tossup with little to no knowledge of potential candidate and the area. Van Drew is one of very, very small number of prominent Dems in NJ 2. He's the one that would stand a chance. "Generic Dem" doesn't win this district. Van Drew could win but even then it would be tough for him to hold onto the seat.

[Keystone Phil]

If Van Drew won here it would likely be his for as long as he wanted it.  Do you remember Bill Hughes?  He was a Democrat and easily won this seat from 1974 to 1994,  and this was when this area was much more Republican. 

I think Van Drew would have to go through some tough races at first though. I'll conceed that he is very popular and well known but the GOP will put in everything they have to defend this seat.

[Keystone Phil]

If Van Drew won here it would likely be his for as long as he wanted it.  Do you remember Bill Hughes?  He was a Democrat and easily won this seat from 1974 to 1994,  and this was when this area was much more Republican. 

I think Van Drew would have to go through some tough races at first though. I'll conceed that he is very popular and well known but the GOP will put in everything they have to defend this seat.

Is Van Drew like Harry Mitchell? A venerable Dem who can win in an otherwise conservative suburban district.

I don't know who Mitchell is but your description fits very well. Let there be no doubt, though, that NJ 2 is changing. I'm not saying that the area is a model of conservativism or anything. However, the area still leans to the right.

[Keystone Phil]

If Van Drew won here it would likely be his for as long as he wanted it.  Do you remember Bill Hughes?  He was a Democrat and easily won this seat from 1974 to 1994,  and this was when this area was much more Republican. 

I think Van Drew would have to go through some tough races at first though. I'll conceed that he is very popular and well known but the GOP will put in everything they have to defend this seat.

Is Van Drew like Harry Mitchell? A venerable Dem who can win in an otherwise conservative suburban district.

I don't know who Mitchell is but your description fits very well. Let there be no doubt, though, that NJ 2 is changing. I'm not saying that the area is a model of conservativism or anything. However, the area still leans to the right.

Thanks. Harry Mitchell is the former Mayor of Tempe who beat J.D Hayworth.

NJ-02 went 55%-43% for Gore in 2000 and 50%-49% for Bush in 2004. Was that the 9-11 effect, or is this district getting more Republican?

Mostly 9/11 effect.  Both Corzine and Menendez carried the district comfortably in their 2005 and 2006 races.

As we both stated, the area is changing but we'll have to wait to see how a House race would go. Republicans greatly outnumber Dems in terms of local government which might, or might not, have an impact on how they'd vote in an open race.

Bottom line - You need Van Drew for this seat.

[Keystone Phil]

B

We have to wait until redistricting to pick up NJ seats, but we almost certainly will after that.

Why do you say that?

Because the Dems will likely control redistricting and undo the egregious GOP gerrymandering plan. If  NJ loses 1 seat, the new delegation could be 9-3 in favor of the Democrats.

I can't wait till the Democrats get greedy and squeeze out all those worthless NE Republicans.  The GOP plan in the South was to get rid of white Democrats in order to convince anglo voters that the Democrats are the "weird sex and minority party" to quote Grover Norquist. My plan is to get rid of ALL Northeast Republicans.

Chris Shays,  besa mi culo!

Haha...brush up on the law, my friend.



Here...take this...




...wipe the egg off your face.

[Keystone Phil]

I feel like the press corps after Truman invited many of them to the White House to celebrate their ill-fated prognostications with a dinner of symbolic crow.

By the way, this is still up for some reason - www.house.gov/gerlach

[Keystone Phil]

I feel like the press corps after Truman invited many of them to the White House to celebrate their ill-fated prognostications with a dinner of symbolic crow.

By the way, this is still up for some reason - www.house.gov/gerlach

By the way, this is not up for some reason --

www.house.gov/hart

Touche

[Keystone Phil]

Someday, the Democrats will find a candidate from Chester County. That day will be the last time Jim Gerlach serves in Congress.

You won't break Gerlach's base. It can't just be "someone from Chester."

[Keystone Phil]

Someday, the Democrats will find a candidate from Chester County. That day will be the last time Jim Gerlach serves in Congress.

You won't break Gerlach's base. It can't just be "someone from Chester."

Congresswoman Barbara McIlvaine Smith

Ok so now you just proved to me that you are picking out names for the hell of it.

McIlvaine Smith is a freshman State Representative whose race was decided by about twenty votes in a Dem district. She would refuse to even consider a run and if, for whatever reason, she changed her mind, she is clearly not strong enough to beat Gerlach. Give me a break.

Here's the candidate who sends shivers down Jim Gerlach's rubber stamp spine: Andy Dinniman

He's extremely popular in Ches Co. and he'll win 60% in Mont Co.

With Ches. and Mont., Dinniman will beat Gerlach by 3-5 points.

Now there is someone realistic but I can tell that you still are just looking around for any Dems in the area. Dinniman is popular but I don't know where you are getting the idea that he is beloved. Also, how do you know he'd win 60% in Montco?

I love discussing these races but please brush up on the area, the candidates, etc. I remember how cocky you were about Gerlach going down in flames last year and now you're saying foolish things like Congresswoman McIlvaine Smith which anyone who follows this area's politics would know to be an absolute joke.

[Keystone Phil]

I feel like the press corps after Truman invited many of them to the White House to celebrate their ill-fated prognostications with a dinner of symbolic crow.

By the way, this is still up for some reason - www.house.gov/gerlach

By the way, this is not up for some reason --

www.house.gov/hart

or this:

http://santorum.senate.gov/

Odd...




I found that on the Governor's website. Hatch looks a lot different since the campaign.

Also, Wetterling must be the only freshman in Congress without a website yet...

[Keystone Phil]

Hmmm...this seems to be missing... http://www.house.gov/fitzpatrick

And Kean must be the only freshman Senator without a website...

That would be hilarious if it didn't take forever for you to think up and if I actually predicted or really, really wanted Kean to win.

[Keystone Phil]

Dinniman will win if he runs. Remember, this district is essentially a 51/49 seat with a slight GOP edge. If the Dem wins in Ches. Co, game over.

What do you know of Dinniman? Honestly, what do you know? Why would he definetley win Chester? You do realize that breaking Gerlach's hold on 51% will be tougher in 2008, right? People have now accepted him as the ultimate survivor.

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Is it pathetic? That's fine. He'll still beat you guys though even when you swear that he is finished. You say he had one of the best campaign teams in the country and make it sound like it was a strike against him or something. Sounds like you just want to whine about why you lost. It's fine that you want to be upset about a loss but that has nothing to do with how Gerlach will do next year. I honestly have no idea why you would argue about how great his fundraisers were as well as his general team in 2006 and then say he'll lose.

As for Murphy being an "ineffectual opponent," the woman had a lot of money and some big names come in for her and she still lost. She'd lose again, too. It's going to be very hard to break that 51% and if that is a pathetic margin of victory for Gerlach, so what? He's still winning and you're still losing.

1-I didn't predict Wetterling would win the weak before the election
2-Hatch wasn't down by double digits, had trailed in every single poll, and had the race written off by the DNC and every pundit. Nor did he lose by 18 points.

Yeah, but they still lost and that's just awesome.

[Keystone Phil]

Look at it this way Phil. No one would be mocking you for predicting George Allen would win.

Look at it this way, BRTD - No one would be mocking you if you just got a life.

Seriously...think about that one for awhile. Think hard...

[Keystone Phil]

What do I know about Dinniman? I know he won 56-44 over some Republican you probably love.

Some Republican I probably love? I hardly know a thing about the lady that ran against him. I know we should have won but that's it.


 

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I have accepted the fact that there is no reason to worry for Gerlach especially after what I went through in 2006. I'm not afraid at all really. Let Dinniman run. It's going to be tough. Gerlach is more battle tested than Dinniman is.

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You made that assinine point with Lois Murphy, too.

 

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Being in the Majority party last year wasn't exactly a plus.

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Dinniman isn't as amazing as you'd like him to be. We don't even know if he is definetley running either.

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And you are a dope hack.

By the way, it's Gerlach, not Girlach.

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And Gerlach was done in 2006, too. You are such a waste of time, kid.

And it's Fitzpatrick, not Fitzgerald.

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We'll take both, thanks.

[Keystone Phil]

It looks like Jim's getting intimate with his boyfriend, W.

The people of the 6th are proud that Jim stands by our wonderful President.


I hope Gerlach will explain to the citizens of the 6th District we doesn't support the reforming the Alternative Minimum Tax. Must be because he's too cozy with his Big Oil buddies who don't care about middle class families.

Hilarious! Lois used one of those two pictures and the big oil and everything else with...well...everything in her campaign. I love how you use that as a point now as if it wasn't in 2006! And guess what...


Gerlach - 51%
Murphy - 49%



Get over it, kid.

[Keystone Phil]

First off, Melissa Hart isn't running in 2008.

Uh, first off, everyone here knows that she is. Secondly, if she isn't, why would you make the comment about winning back PA 4 with Hart in your last post? Stay consistent and brush up on PA politics. Making you look foolish is getting painful for me.

 

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She also had ads, lit, big shots come in and make the Gerlach-Bush connection all the time. They used the pictures, the issues...everything was thrown at Gerlach. For some reason, though, you think you are so smart in pointing these things out now like they'll have a bigger impact in 2008 than they did in 2006.

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Stop quoting "Fitzgerald." His name is Fitzpatrick. Also, I wasn't wrong on Sherwood or Weldon - please, again, take a look at the record and you'll note that I predicted that both of them would lose. I thought at first that Weldon wouldn't lose but that wasn't towards the final weeks when Sestak has the momentum and Weldon had the Feds raiding his offices. I said well before Election day that he would go down. Same with Sherwood. You still are ignorant since you jump to conclusions about my predictions.

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He's not all that popular. I admit that. However, he still has a pretty strong hold on 51% of the voters. He might go down a few tenths of a percentage point every election but, at this rate, you'll beat him in 2014 or somewhere around there.

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I never said he was really popular. Again, kid, you make things up and I win based on facts. Your Chester county argument is fine but your argument that Dinniman will win by huge margins is not.

Listen, you are clearly someone who follows this race from out of the area. That's fine. I do the same with other races. However, you are so blatantly ignorant when it comes to this topic.

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One of the most classic hack arguments in forum history. Keep dreaming up a 2008 landslide!

 

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And you want me to take your arguments seriously...?

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I am not a Brownback fan but...uh...thanks for totally veering off topic. Shows what a loser you are when you lose yet another argument. Away with you, hack. I'll hear from you after Gerlach's 2008 victory speech.


"You watch! We'll get him in 2010! Gerlach is FINISHED!"

[Keystone Phil]

Great example. BTW, his opponent was Kenny Hulshof. I think Gerlach is another Volkmer. Both Volkmer and Gerlach were out of touch with their districts.

Gerlach is a moderate to conservative member. He is fine for PA 6.

No doubt if Phil was Minnesotan he'd be saying in State Leg discussions "There's no way you'll beat Cox, forget it, he'll always get just over 50% but there is no way he can possibly ever lose."

I look forward to proving you wrong in 2008.

[Keystone Phil]

So what do you think about Ray Cox? Would've you been convinced he was unbeatable after 2004?

2004 was also a very bad year for Minnesota Republicans.

Don't know, don't care. Not everything is in terms of Minnesota, BRTD.

[Keystone Phil]

And on what issues is Gerlach moderate?

Gerlach has consistently held moderate views on taxes, stem cell research, the environment to name a few.

[Keystone Phil]

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Just one? Ok...

ANWR - http://gerlach.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=44399

[Keystone Phil]

I never made that post.

Sorry, I was trying to reduce all the quotes and accidentally deleted MarkWarner08 from the quote. One of your quotes must have been in there somewhere and I made the mistake of attributing it to you.

[Keystone Phil]

Mike Fitzpatrick received a 92% rating from the LCV and earned their endosrsement; Jim Gerlach didn't. Gerlach voted for more oil drilling in the form of the Refinery Permit Process Schedule Act; Fitzpatrick voted no.

Gerlach cast a meaningless vote on a resolution that was bound to fail. The House Leadership set up the vote to help Gerlach win reelection.  Unlike Gerlach, Fitzpatrick stood with the conservationists 92% of the time.

Ok so when I give you evidence, you start going on about Fitz and how he got an endorsement but Gerlach didn't. What a baby. I love how this debate on the environment had nothing to do with Fitz but you brought it in so you thought you'd have a winning point.

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Good. Fitz is one of my favorite politicians of all time.

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So now you have to agree with other moderates all the time? Kid, you're really reaching for material here and you're failing in the worst sense.

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That's wonderful especially since no one even cares if English gets opposition.

[Keystone Phil]

English won less than 54% of the vote last time. His district is also moving towards Democrats, as is Dent's district. PA-03, PA-06 and PA-15 are all targets for the DCCC.

PA 3 is a target? Amazing! I love when you guys waste money!

 

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You have a weird obsession with Jim Gerlach of all people. Very odd.

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Yawn...and he'll win again.

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Uh, you're reaching with the Iraq vote when the issue was the environment. 

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You're right that that's the reason why Fitz went down but please notice that just because someone in neighboring district went down doesn't mean that you are going to go down, too. If Gerlach didn't get beaten over Iraq in 2006, why would he go down in 2008 because of that issue?

 

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Dan Wofford was a weak candidate so please, please, please get him to run again.

[Keystone Phil]

49% when Democrats were losing seats in both cahmbers asnd Bush had a 60=% approavla is a great showing. You're scared of his canidacay.

One thing I hate is when people insist that I am "scared" of someone's candidacy. Listen, here is the truth: You are frustrated that you can't beat Gerlach. My guy constantly wins the tough ones. Let Dan Wofford run so everyone can let a collective "Dan Who?"

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I certainly don't obsess over him. In fact, the only time I talk about him is when people like yourself start foaming at the mouth over beating him. I would have had no other reason to talk about Gerlach if you guys just gave up.

Mark my words - You will not beat Jim Gerlach in 2008.

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I don't care about his Iraq war vote. I agreed with him. Let it weaken him for the time being. No one will care that much in 2008.

Phil English is not vulnerable. The guy only got 54% because it was a bad year. Watch him come back and destroy whoever the joke is that you guys put up.

As for Gerlach not being endorsed by the LCV, who cares? I provided you with the one Pro Environment vote that you asked for and now you want to whine that that was a "fake" showing of support. Man, you are pathetic!

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I know they'll target him. Taking money away from Pat Murphy and Jason Altmire will be music to my ears.

And do me a favor - don't get so cocky about your candidates for President in 2008. You had a good year in 2006. Don't let it get to your head (kind of like how we let 2004 get to our head on the GOP side).

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If he was so out of touch, he would have been gone by now. Sorry, pal, but your obsession with PA 6 is going to bring another disappointment in two years.

By the way, where do you live? I find it hard to believe that someone can be so engrossed in all things related to this district if they don't live in PA.