Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[BuckeyeNut]

Don't mean to be rude, but I hope this isn't overlooked in the flurry of activity and back-and-forth about Illinois tonight.

So BuckeyeNut gonna be a nut about the Buckeye state, especially since The God of the West is willing to go in deep down ticket. (And I can't find answers to these questions.)

1: Who was Cordray's Lt. Governor?
2: Did Cordray's Lt. Governor succeed at running for re-election in 2026? 2030? (Ohio hasn't had 3 or more terms of Democratic governance since the '30's.)
3: Did Sherrod Brown run for re-election in 2024, or did he step down? I think we know a Democrat won that election, but who?

I'm waiting to post further write-ups til' tomorrow, but all will be answered.

Take your time, I'll be looking forward to it!

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

YAS GOVERNOR RILEY!

[Mike Thick]

YAS GOVERNOR RILEY!

He was in IRC tonight, but I didn't mention it because volunteering that I made him Governor of West Virginia would have been awk

[Devout Centrist]

TD, I have to ask, why would you write a timeline that's so pessimistic for conservatism?

[The_Doctor]

TD, I have to ask, why would you write a timeline that's so pessimistic for conservatism?

I think I wrote the timeline because I'm long an advocate of knowing the truth as it may be rather than pretending something may not happen. And from what I know, conservatism is not hitting a high - it's hitting a low.

For instance, the ObamaCare repeal / Medicaid fight is more or less what happened and predicted six months ago based on what I knew of trends, entitlements, etc. I wasn't surprised because I had forecast the outcome based on trends, populations, and history.

EDIT: I don't want to be one of these Carter voters shocked by Reagan's victory type people.

[Mike Thick]

Here's Ohio.


2026 Ohio Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Lou Gentile/State Senator Nick Celebrezze
1,818,723 - 58.12%
Fmr. State Representative Dorothy Pelanda/Activist Dan Brown
1,158,137 - 37.01%
Other
152,395 - 4.87%

2030 Ohio Gubernatorial Election:
Governor Lou Gentile/Lieutenant Governor Nick Celebrezze
1,580,274 - 50.00%
Former Secretary of State Frank LaRose/State Senator Bill Maury
1,511,374 - 47.82%
Others
68,900 - 2.18%

Upon Richard Cordray's election to the White House, Lieutenant Governor Lou Gentile became Governor of Ohio. Cordray had picked the former State Senator as his running mate due to his reputation for winning tough races in the State's rural, poor South. Gentile had done his job, shoring up support for his boss and propelling him to two comfortable wins. Now, it was his time to shine.

2026 was, in summary, a cakewalk. Backed by Cordray's powerful national machine and boasting sky-high approval ratings, Governor Gentile scared off all major potential challengers, and won election to a full term 58%-37% over Dorothy Pelanda, a little-known State Representative who had failed in a bid for Secretary of State earlier that year, posting massive margins in his native Ohio Valley as well as Northern Ohio. Gentile, as well as Lieutenant Governor-elect Nick Celebrezze, were seen as rising stars of a national caliber.

However, come 2030, the landscape was much more grim. Gentile's approval ratings had sunk along with President Cordray's, and Republicans who smelled blood in the water eagerly jumped in to challenge him. State Attorney General Keith Faber jumped in the race, as did former Secretary of State Frank LaRose, Congressman Ryan Wilson, and State Senator/former State House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger. Despite its clear clown-car-iness, the primary was not ugly, and LaRose narrowly emerged as the winner over Wilson (not coincidentally, both prodigious fundraisers). He selected as his running mate State Senator Bill Maury, a rare African-American Republican from the Columbus suburbs, and they geared up for the biggest political showdown the state had seen in twenty years.

Gentile was no stranger to tough races, but this was going to be his most difficult yet -- due to national Democratic fatigue, his approval ratings had crashed in critical suburban areas, and LaRose was the best candidate Ohio had seen in decades. Top Democratic recruits for statewide office were staying away (wary of a bloodbath), donations to the Ohio Democratic Party had dried up, and the Governor was trailing by as much as sixteen points in some polls. As the Krazens of the world celebrated and LaRose held massive rallies with prominent national politicos in Akron and Cincinnati, Gentile got to work, crisscrossing dining halls and coffee shops across the state (especially his beloved, native, Ohio Valley). Gradually, the deficit was chipped away from the mid-teens to the mid-single digits. However, going into election day, LaRose still held a 5.4% lead in the RCP average.

What happened next shocked everyone.

As expected, Gentile crashed in essentially every suburban area in the state. His losses were particularly acute in the Northern areas of the state, which saw some areas experience swings of twenty points to LaRose. However, as returns from other areas rolled in, Gentile began to catch up, maintaining the Democrats' usual edge in big cities and keeping his losses in the Columbus and Cleveland Metro areas to a reasonable minimum. The biggest shock of the night came from -- you guessed it -- the Ohio Valley, where Gentile had not just held most of his monster margins from 2026, but actually improved in some of the areas that LaRose had neglected in favor of the North and the burbs. When all the votes were counted, Gentile had eked out a narrow (50-48) reelection victory, and was widely touted as a potential successor to Cordray in 2032 (before eventually declining to run, and accepting the role of Secretary of the Interior under President Castro).

[Gone to Carolina]

It's nice to see the Democrats make a comeback in Southeast Ohio / Southern West Virginia.

[GlobeSoc]

Weird question, but are there any races in 2018 that are particularly likely to show signs of during/post-realignment maps? I'm thinking OK-GOV, KS-GOV, MA-GOV, WV-SEN, AZ-SEN, NV-SEN are races with this characteristic.

Here's why:

In NV and AZ we might see what are for this alignment anomalously high democratic margins thanks to republican infighting, but would show the map post-realignment democrats would regularly get in those states.

WV might show what areas of the state will 'reactivate' for dems(I think TD mentioned this)

MA might show what areas of the state are open to the business republicans later on in the realignment, when the republicans moderate

OK and KS both have a small scale crisis caused by republicans, giving democrats an opening to these governorships. The maps in a close election in either would likely be similar to, if perhaps more democratic leaning than, the races the realigning dem would run in those states.

Are there any races that I missed?

[Gone to Carolina]

I could see the Tennessee gubernatorial race foreshadowing the realignment, depending on the margin and how Karl Dean does in the various areas of the state, reflecting a closer (Likely R) Tennessee in the future.

[_]

Can we get a rundown of John Delaney in this timeline?

Edit:  As in his career in it, please.

[The_Doctor]

If people want to write sub-plots, just PM me and give me a gist and you can post it yourself. Or PM Ted Bessell if he's covering things that relate to what you want.

[diptheriadan]

Tennessee gubernatorial 2026

[BuckeyeNut]

Huzzah! Beautiful write up, Ted Bessell. And frankly, pretty believable.

Still curious about who replaced Sherrod in the Senate (unless he becomes the 2nd 4 term Senator from Ohio, ever) when Cordray carries the State in 2024. But that's a subject that can definitely be deferred in favor of other's requests.

[Mike Thick]

Huzzah! Beautiful write up, Ted Bessell. And frankly, pretty believable.

Still curious about who replaced Sherrod in the Senate (unless he becomes the 2nd 4 term Senator from Ohio, ever) when Cordray carries the State in 2024. But that's a subject that can definitely be deferred in favor of other's requests.

I'm not going to do a huge write-up of that, but since Tim Ryan is Speaker of the House, we'll say that Dave Leland wins comfortably but loses reelection in the 2030 wave.

[BuckeyeNut]

Huzzah! Beautiful write up, Ted Bessell. And frankly, pretty believable.

Still curious about who replaced Sherrod in the Senate (unless he becomes the 2nd 4 term Senator from Ohio, ever) when Cordray carries the State in 2024. But that's a subject that can definitely be deferred in favor of other's requests.

I'm not going to do a huge write-up of that, but since Tim Ryan is Speaker of the House, we'll say that Dave Leland wins comfortably but loses reelection in the 2030 wave.

A name's just fine.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Would this fit as a good post-realignment map?

[The_Doctor]

Sorry, I've been busy.

1. Sanchez, not necessarily. If Democrats make gains after 2018, I may do a 2020 realignment timeline. That's about the only other timeline I'd think of at this point.

2. Jalawest2, not necessarily. Montana is not a long term Democratic state.

I don't see Massachusetts (with Boston) being an easily Republican state but Maine, Vermont not being so. It's more likely the inverse: Maine, New Hampshire, and Connecticut go Republican while Massachusetts remains lean Democratic with Rhode Island. Open question on Vermont because it's got a long history of gun rights, is pretty white, and rural. (By all measures, it should be a Republican state. But it's not). New England will trend Republican, post-realignment, if this realignment happens. But not like that.

New York is going to also trend Republican, but I suspect it will be lean Democratic, at worst (for the Democratic Party). At best, for the GOP, NY will be a battleground state. New York City just has too many votes. New Jersey, Pennsylvania, I can see. Maryland, no. Too many votes in the urban strongholds and minorities.

The Midwest trending Republican like that is viable. Illinois is the kind of state that might benefit from 2030s GOP governance - economic and fiscal technocratic GOP politics to restore the state's standing and to unravel all the mess. They're also whiter than the national average.

The South, no. Virginia might go back to being a swing state (?), could stay Democratic. North Carolina probably will lean Democratic. I doubt the Solid South is coming back (so, AL, TN, AR, SC could lean GOP in this scenario, GA, NC, VA, FL lean Democratic, MS, LA a battleground).

Oklahoma, no. The Rockies and Great Plains otherwise make sense. Texas and Colorado will not be GOP leaning post-realignment. In fact, they may join California as the base of the Democratic majority, stretching from Texas to California.

Pacific Northwest, yes.

3. the Walrus, I'd have to think about it. I think that some states are going to see working class voters become more Democratic in the 2020s, but it will take a while to see how they shake out in the end, especially as Republicans become northern and technocratic.

[The_Doctor]

Oh, and the North Korea arc seems to be intensifying right on schedule ... let's hope that it goes as it did in the timeline. Note the date: October 12, 2017.

That's interesting.

[GlobeSoc]

Are there any weird signals in the generic ballot polls right now? I remember reading a thing that said that in order of most republican to most democratic trend, nonwhites(~2 point shift D), white college educated men(~10 point shift D), white non college men(~15 point shift D), white college educated women(~25 point shift D), and white non college women(~30 point shift D) are all swinging democratic compared to the exit poll in November . Would seem to both narrow the education and race gaps while widening the gender gap.

[The_Doctor]

Are there any weird signals in the generic ballot polls right now? I remember reading a thing that said that in order of most republican to most democratic trend, nonwhites(~2 point shift D), white college educated men(~10 point shift D), white non college men(~15 point shift D), white college educated women(~25 point shift D), and white non college women(~30 point shift D) are all swinging democratic compared to the exit poll in November . Would seem to both narrow the education and race gaps while widening the gender gap.

I haven't really seen anything weird yet. That's a good idea, tbh, if there are breakdowns of the generic ballot that would tell us what the Democratic majority looks like. (in the future).

I remember seeing a recent poll showing that WWC had roughly the same opinion of the GOP & DNC (-30, -31) but don't quote me. I could be wrong (most likely am). 

[GlobeSoc]

Some international predictions:

The UK will shift to be very left wing.

Germany will stay where it is, thus making it very right wing on the new alignment's ideological axis.

France will shift left, but only by enough to be considered centrist by the new alignment

The Scandinavian countries will stay where they are and thus be considered center-left

Canada will shift left slightly, and be firmly in the center-left

Japan will shift right and become far-right wing. Affluence, homogeneity, and age will cause this.

The rest of democratic east asia will become right-wing, but not to the extent of Japan.

BOLD PREDICTION: Most of MENA will be considered socially centrist or center-right. This is because the terrorist attacks and civil wars will forge an association of fundamentalist=death. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, most of the MENA will liberalize. If Iran has not been invaded by the US, the same applies there, except the shift would be bigger and place them firmly center-left and democratic.

I will post more as I think of them.

[Former President tack50]

Some international predictions:

The UK will shift to be very left wing.

Germany will stay where it is, thus making it very right wing on the new alignment's ideological axis.

France will shift left, but only by enough to be considered centrist by the new alignment

The Scandinavian countries will stay where they are and thus be considered center-left

Canada will shift left slightly, and be firmly in the center-left

Japan will shift right and become far-right wing. Affluence, homogeneity, and age will cause this.

The rest of democratic east asia will become right-wing, but not to the extent of Japan.

BOLD PREDICTION: Most of MENA will be considered socially centrist or center-right. This is because the terrorist attacks and civil wars will forge an association of fundamentalist=death. With the exception of Saudi Arabia, most of the MENA will liberalize. If Iran has not been invaded by the US, the same applies there, except the shift would be bigger and place them firmly center-left and democratic.

I will post more as I think of them.

To be fair, do American realignments affect the rest of the world in the slightest? While you could make a Reagan-Thatcher comparison for the UK (later followed by 2 centrists: Blair and Clinton) and maybe even for West Germany (who elected right wing Kohl and later centrist Schroeder), at the same time that the UK and US elected those leaders France elected Miterrand and Spain elected González, both left wing leaders.

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

Who are all the possible people who can preside over a realignment? I remember you (or maybe TD) saying that you have three people in mind, including Sherrod Brown, who fit your necessary qualities (experience, ability to build coalitions, etc.). Because I don't think Cordray is going to be that President (as he's not even running for Governor anytime soon) so who else could take that mantle?

[Unapologetic Chinaperson]

Who are all the possible people who can preside over a realignment? I remember you (or maybe TD) saying that you have three people in mind, including Sherrod Brown, who fit your necessary qualities (experience, ability to build coalitions, etc.). Because I don't think Cordray is going to be that President (as he's not even running for Governor anytime soon) so who else could take that mantle?

If they're not from the Midwest then look to Texas. The Castro brothers along with Beto O'Rourke should be to watch for - though they'd likely have to run in 2024 since 2020 would be too soon for any of them.

Also Russ Feingold running in 2020 is another option as is Minesotta Governor Mark Dayton.

Isn't Feingold largely considered a washout though? Of course, it would fit with the "realigning presidents must experience failures" idea, but it seems like their failures largely occur early in their careers, not close to their presidential victory (with the exception of Thomas Jefferson). As for Dayton, he's 70, so unless he builds up popularity Sanders-style he'll probably be too old to do anything.

EDIT: Now that I think of it, if we're sticking to Midwesterners Tim Ryan could also be a potential realigning president, given his experience in the House. Though preferably he should win the Speakership first.

[_]

Who are all the possible people who can preside over a realignment? I remember you (or maybe TD) saying that you have three people in mind, including Sherrod Brown, who fit your necessary qualities (experience, ability to build coalitions, etc.). Because I don't think Cordray is going to be that President (as he's not even running for Governor anytime soon) so who else could take that mantle?

If they're not from the Midwest then look to Texas. The Castro brothers along with Beto O'Rourke should be to watch for - though they'd likely have to run in 2024 since 2020 would be too soon for any of them.

Also Russ Feingold running in 2020 is another option as is Minesotts Governor Mark Dayton.

Who would be an option for Cordray(or the person Presiding over the realignment)'s VP?  Heitkamp? Tim Ryan?