Between Two Majorities | The Cordray Administration

[The_Doctor]

I hate to be picky but I think the traditional Senate gains that come with a realignment is the biggest hint of the timing. If the Senate Democrats gain seats in 2018, I would imagine the realignment is in 2020. If the senate GOP gains in 2018, 2024 is the realignment.

The Democrats gained 8 seats in 2008, and 30 House seats. Foreshadowing elections tend to be similar to the realigning elections in terms of seats gained.

[Former President tack50]

TD, could you see this scenario:

• The GOP starting now til the midterms focus on Tax reform, corporate inversions, and infrastructure.
• Democrats flip 25-30 seats (a slim majority).
• Pence becomes President early in 2019 as pressure builds on Trump to resign.
• Pence wins reelection (but loses the PV). The map is 2016 minus Michigan.
• Pence is gridlocked by the Democratic congress for the rest of his term.
• 2021-2025 follows as laid out in your timeline.

I think the Democrats at this rate are favored to take the House and after hearing McConnel's speech last night they seem to have finally given up on healthcare (we'll see). Moving onto other agenda items seems to be what they're planning to do and this should keep 2018 closer than otherwise expected. Trump's unpopularity will cost them either way in 2018; the question is to what extent.

Given that Trump is doing worse than your timeline expected, I don't think Pence wins the PV in 2020 but definitely has the potential to win the EC.


Where do you agree or disagree with this analysis? Is it likely?

If Pence won in 2020 wouldn't he take the House with him as well? Especially if the majority for democrats was slim?

[Virginiá]

@TD: I had a question - what if the crisis ends up being created by Trump himself sometime before Nov 2020? This isn't to say what you thought might happen in the early 2020s doesn't happen, only that the blowback against Republicans from the first crisis brings forth large Democratic majorities and a unified federal govt in 2020, which is then used to solve the 2nd crisis before it balloons out of control. The end result is that looking back, we come to see the Trump crisis as what set things in motion.

What do you think?

Wouldn't the GOP Senators just obstruct and force the Democrats to govern like a minority coalition in that scenario? That could be enough to prevent any major legislate accomplishment from going through and going into 2022 on favorable grounds.

They could, but it's not entirely clear if Democrats would allow Republicans to do that next time around. The filibuster has been abused beyond recognition by Senate Republicans as it is, and the idea of a procedural tool that can grind legislation to a halt has come under fire on both sides now. Democrats may feel (rightly, imo) that Republicans again attempting to obstruct their agenda is the final straw, and that either the GOP stops the abuse or the filibuster goes and they come to see a flood of progressive legislation that will be very difficult to roll back. If Senate Republican leadership believes the threat is credible, it is possible they back down, as they know from PPACA that once new social programs take effect, they are very hard to roll back.

Further, if there is no more filibuster, the crisis might then be solved before it inflicts permanent damage. It's even possible the crisis itself prompts Democrats to blow the filibuster up, particularly if they think Republicans are purposefully trying to increase the damage to the country just as a selfish partisan tactic.

[Virginiá]

For the filibuster - personally I don't hope for it to be gutted by any means. I just want it to be defanged to the point where if the minority wants to block a bill, it should take substantial effort and endurance to the point where it can only be done sparingly, and in all other cases only be able to slow a bill down to varying degrees. Simply put, it should be neutered just enough so it can't impose a de facto 60 vote requirement. If that was what was originally intended, then a simple majority wouldn't be the constitutional requirement, no?

I think if the filibuster ever were reformed, it would be in that way. After all, it's not like it hasn't been changed over the years. The only requirement to make the changes stick I think would be that Democrats either hold the Senate for a long time, or hold some other power when they don't have the Senate, such as the House or the White House. This way, there is never a single 2 year period of time for at least, say, 15 - 20 years, where Republicans control everything and thus may feel emboldened to fully gut the filibuster since Democrats changed it themselves. That is why this would best be done when the realignment happens, as it would help ensure it becomes tradition. Of course, Democrats will not know how the future will play out when/if they change it, so it's always going to be risky.

Either way, imo, the current situation is simply untenable.

I think if the Democrats are in office during the crisis then they'll be promptly booted out for somebody like Rubio in 2024 then 2028 is the realignment when supply side economics doesn't solve the crisis. This kind of crisis didn't boot Reagan or Roosevelt out of office since they came in during the crisis and could rightly blame it on their predecessors and Lincoln's GOP didn't receive backlash while in office because most Democrats were rebelling against him in the South (but as I noted above, they kept the political era from 1865-1896 very polarized before the GOP solidified it).

Would a recession count as a crisis? If so, what about the 1981 recession? It was bad, but things were able to clear up and Reagan was able to win reelection by a much greater margin than his first time around. Obviously any sort of crisis will be a black mark but if it is neutralized as a significant problem and the incumbent president has some charisma, they seem to be able to rebound in some instances.  I suppose in the question I proposed, it would depend on when that 2nd crisis hit in the Democrat's first term.

However, if history is the only issue here, I would note that there really haven't been enough realignments to be able to say that it is unlikely, as we may not fully understand the possibilities of how they can play out since there have not been that many of them yet.

Also, I think 2008 was obviously time when we should've restructured our economy as we did in 1980 and 1932 and for the life of me I cannot understand why our congress took the lazy path out and just bailed out the system. Maybe they were so frightened that they panicked and did whatever they could to stop the bleeding in the short term but yeah.

Well, under Bush I don't see how a new way of thinking would have been able to flourish, for obvious reasons. Even under Obama, I mean, aside from the big man himself, there were just too many Congressmen whose idea of how things worked followed the same dominating theme of the Reagan era. Simply put, there was not enough support for a new system even if they had the resolve to try a whole new approach.

[_]

TD I had one last request, you don't have to do a writeup but could you post the raw numbers from the 2030 IL-Gov race?  I want to know if waiting another 12 years and through 2 recessions in this state is worth it.

[Mike Thick]

Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

[GlobeSoc]

Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

Sorry If I'm asking for too much, but what's the dem county percentage map?

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

You have any other timelines in the pipeline? Your depth of historical knowledge is conducive to other projects. I'd love to see more TD timelines in the future!

[Mike Thick]

Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

Sorry If I'm asking for too much, but what's the dem county percentage map?

I was actually going to make this, but I got lazy. Pawar wins Cook by a lot, and St. Clair and Randolph narrowly. Collar counties go yuge for Barickman, as does the area in his Champaign-based CD, and he runs narrowly ahead in the rest of the state with variations of a few percentage points between the various different regions Downstate. Actual map soon.

[Mike Thick]

Here's a map that I just farted out by looking at:
 - Poverty rates by county
 - Black population by county
 - Partisanship in 2016, to a certain extent
 - Total population, to ensure that the margins roughly corroborated an eight-point Republican win.

Typical Atlas colors, darker shades are larger margins of victory, you know the drill. The big navy blue thing that kind of looks like a guy swimming is Barickman's CD (approximately).

I'll take requests for write-ups and maps of other downballot races, which I assume is okay with TD.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

West Virginia governor race 2032

[Mike Thick]

How close did TN-7 ever get to flipping in 2022/24/26?

Lots of poor white people, basically.

[ltomlinson31]

I'll take requests for write-ups and maps of other downballot races, which I assume is okay with TD.

I'd be interested in seeing one on the Texas Senate Race in 2024. I'd be curious to see how the map looks with a Democratic win, and would love to read a writeup on Ted Cruz being defeated.

[_]

Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

*single tear rolls down cheek*
Finally free from the machine.

I realize this might be a bit too much, but could you post the results of the state house and senate?  Something tells me IL might have flipped.

Thank you so much for this.

[Mike Thick]

West Virginia Gubernatorial Election, 2032:
State Senator Riley Keaton:
330,212 - 48.34%
U.S. Rep. Ryan White:
327,753 - 47.98%
Others:
25,138 - 3.68%

As Vice President Castro duked it out with his Republican opponent, both having sealed up their nominations long ago, a hotly contested gubernatorial race in West Virginia went under the radar.

The Democratic primary was dominated by the state's two Congressmen -- Ryan White, a younger millennial from the Northern district who had overseen fed-sponsored infrastructure programs in the Mid-Atlantic states, and Richard Ojeda, a decorated veteran with a record of winning tough State Senate races who had lost two campaigns for the southernmost seat before finally winning in the 2024 wave. Former State House Speaker Timothy Miley ran as well, but despite pulling decent fundraising numbers, he was unable to overcome his relative anonymity. Ojeda inspired tremendous enthusiasm among the formerly impoverished residents of his districts who had benefited from President Cordray's jobs programs, but White had deep-running ties to Democratic donors, and was able consistently outspend his opponent. Ultimately, White prevailed over Ojeda 46-41 with Miley far back at 14, in a fight marked by deep geographic division but little actual bitterness.

Meanwhile, the Republican primary was an equally contested affair. Attorney General John McCuskey started as the odds-on frontrunner, having cruised to victory in four statewide elections while Democratic Governors and even Presidential nominees won the state. His only opposition came from the 34-year-old Riley Keaton, a well-connected conservative who had won a seat in the State House of Delegates before he graduated college, and moved up to the State Senate just four years later. McCuskey made the fatal mistake of ignoring his primary opposition, training his fire on the Democrats and incumbent Governor Doug Reynolds as Keaton politicked up and down the state. On primary day, Keaton came out on top 50-48 in a stunner, as his well-structured data operation and ground game outperformed polls by nearly twenty points.

The general election was bitterly close, all the way through. Keaton ran on a strong record of accomplishment, having assisted the successful coordination between the infrastructure programs and private organizations, as well as operating a large microloan bank that serviced economically unstable coal country. White, meanwhile, wrapped himself around President Cordray and Vice President Castro, proposing the construction of a line connecting Charleston to the high-speed rail system servicing the East Coast. On election day, Keaton pulled out an extremely narrow 2,500-vote victory, close to the Presidential margin in the very competitive state, making him the youngest chief executive in the nation and the first Republican to win a gubernatorial election in 36 years.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

NY-SEN 2028 and NC-GOV 2032?

[BuckeyeNut]

So BuckeyeNut gonna be a nut about the Buckeye state, especially since The God of the West is willing to go in deep down ticket. (And I can't find answers to these questions.)

1: Who was Cordray's Lt. Governor?
2: Did Cordray's Lt. Governor succeed at running for re-election in 2026? 2030? (Ohio hasn't had 3 or more terms of Democratic governance since the '30's.)
3: Did Sherrod Brown run for re-election in 2024, or did he step down? I think we know a Democrat won that election, but who?

[Mike Thick]

Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

*single tear rolls down cheek*
Finally free from the machine.

I realize this might be a bit too much, but could you post the results of the state house and senate?  Something tells me IL might have flipped.

Thank you so much for this.

Republicans make pretty significant gains, but there's no way that it's enough to overcome the majorities that Democrats have built up through nearly a decade of Democratic waves that deeply entrenched a lot of incumbents. Once Barickman has to sign off on district maps, though, things might improve a bit for Republicans.

[_]

Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

*single tear rolls down cheek*
Finally free from the machine.

I realize this might be a bit too much, but could you post the results of the state house and senate?  Something tells me IL might have flipped.

Thank you so much for this.

Republicans make pretty significant gains, but there's no way that it's enough to overcome the majorities that Democrats have built up through nearly a decade of Democratic waves that deeply entrenched a lot of incumbents. Once Barickman has to sign off on district maps, though, things might improve a bit for Republicans.

The maps are exactly why I'm so happy this happens in the TL, once those get put in IL would have a good chance of flipping, especially with 2032 being an R wave iirc.

[Mike Thick]

Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

*single tear rolls down cheek*
Finally free from the machine.

I realize this might be a bit too much, but could you post the results of the state house and senate?  Something tells me IL might have flipped.

Thank you so much for this.

Republicans make pretty significant gains, but there's no way that it's enough to overcome the majorities that Democrats have built up through nearly a decade of Democratic waves that deeply entrenched a lot of incumbents. Once Barickman has to sign off on district maps, though, things might improve a bit for Republicans.

The maps are exactly why I'm so happy this happens in the TL, once those get put in IL would have a good chance of flipping, especially with 2032 being an R wave iirc.

2032 was a 52-46 Democratic win. Republicans don't take back the Presidency until 2036.

[Mike Thick]

Tedbessell, 2036 electoral map prediction? PV margin? Thank you!

New York (I assume Governor?) Elise Stefanik is the Republican nominee.

TD has posted the electoral map somewhere already -- I'll try and find it when I do the rest of the write-ups tomorrow.

[_]

Illinois Gubernatorial Election, 2030:
U.S. Rep. Jason Barickman / State Senator Cheryl Grothman
1,879,662 - 52.55%
Fmr. Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar / Decatur Mayor Rex Collins
1,602,810 - 44.81%
Others
94,430 - 2.64%

Elected in 2020, Jason Barickman is one of the few House Republicans to survive the brutal losses of the 2020s, and finds himself in pole position to run for Governor. Facing only token opposition in the primary, he selects as his running mate the 36-year-old Cheryl Grothman, who represents the impoverished areas of down-downstate Illinois that Cordray made massive inroads into during his two campaigns.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, incumbent Governor Napoleon Harris grows increasingly unpopular, largely due to scandals pertaining to misappropriation of federal infrastructure money, and the simple fact that Illinois continues to lag behind the rest of the country even in a time of economic recovery Former Lieutenant Governor Ameya Pawar seeks a rematch with his 2026 primary rival, and they engage in a brutal primary fight where Pawar accuses Harris of single-mindedly gunning for a 2032 Presidential bid, and Harris attempts to tie Pawar to J.B. Pritzker's controversial tenure as Governor. Ultimately, Harris's attacks don't stick, and Pawar wins the primary comfortably by cleaning up with the Cordray coalition downstate while roughly breaking even in Cook County. He selects Decatur Mayor Rex Collins, whose city was a success story of the recovery, in a bid to retain Cordray's inroads downstate.

In the general, Barickman runs as a competent technocrat, in clear contrast to the Harris years, and proposes an expansion of business partnerships to improve integration of Medicare-For-All and the infrastructure investments. Pawar, in contrast, presents himself as a bold progressive who will expand on President Cordray's policies and expand state jobs programs. However, Pawar's fundraising and organizational abilities prove lackluster, and as the President's popularity wanes through the fall, what was a close race grows less and less so. Barickman's natural appeal to the moderate suburbanites in the Collar Counties and geographic pull with populist downstaters leads him to a comfortable eight-point win, carrying all but three counties and catapulting him into the top tier of Republican rising stars.

*single tear rolls down cheek*
Finally free from the machine.

I realize this might be a bit too much, but could you post the results of the state house and senate?  Something tells me IL might have flipped.

Thank you so much for this.

Republicans make pretty significant gains, but there's no way that it's enough to overcome the majorities that Democrats have built up through nearly a decade of Democratic waves that deeply entrenched a lot of incumbents. Once Barickman has to sign off on district maps, though, things might improve a bit for Republicans.

The maps are exactly why I'm so happy this happens in the TL, once those get put in IL would have a good chance of flipping, especially with 2032 being an R wave iirc.

2032 was a 52-46 Democratic win. Republicans don't take back the Presidency until 2036.

There is no memory here then.

[BuckeyeNut]

Don't mean to be rude, but I hope this isn't overlooked in the flurry of activity and back-and-forth about Illinois tonight.

So BuckeyeNut gonna be a nut about the Buckeye state, especially since The God of the West is willing to go in deep down ticket. (And I can't find answers to these questions.)

1: Who was Cordray's Lt. Governor?
2: Did Cordray's Lt. Governor succeed at running for re-election in 2026? 2030? (Ohio hasn't had 3 or more terms of Democratic governance since the '30's.)
3: Did Sherrod Brown run for re-election in 2024, or did he step down? I think we know a Democrat won that election, but who?

[Mike Thick]

Don't mean to be rude, but I hope this isn't overlooked in the flurry of activity and back-and-forth about Illinois tonight.

So BuckeyeNut gonna be a nut about the Buckeye state, especially since The God of the West is willing to go in deep down ticket. (And I can't find answers to these questions.)

1: Who was Cordray's Lt. Governor?
2: Did Cordray's Lt. Governor succeed at running for re-election in 2026? 2030? (Ohio hasn't had 3 or more terms of Democratic governance since the '30's.)
3: Did Sherrod Brown run for re-election in 2024, or did he step down? I think we know a Democrat won that election, but who?

I'm waiting to post further write-ups til' tomorrow, but all will be answered.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Could I know what Florida gov races looked like from 2018 to 2030? No need for super detailed numbers or maps, just general results will do. Great work on these down ballot races!