Fed plans to raise rates as soon as March to cool inflation

[Omega21]

Hopefully, now the Fed faces reality and put a 75 bp and in my view a 100 bp increase on the table for the next Fed meeting.  The market pricing clearly thinks this is the case (at least the 75 bp part)

So we should expect mid-term stagflation?

[Omega21]

Hopefully, now the Fed faces reality and put a 75 bp and in my view a 100 bp increase on the table for the next Fed meeting.  The market pricing clearly thinks this is the case (at least the 75 bp part)

So we should expect mid-term stagflation?

I would say that the equities markets are pricing in around a 50% chance of a recession next year.  I think if it falls another 5% or so then the chances of a recession next year is very high. 

About what I assumed, although we might get the official "recession" as soon as next quarter.

Anyway, I have already started buying the dip a bit, but not sure how much I should leave for later. Think we could lose more than 10% to ATL from this point?

[Omega21]

Fed fund swaps clearly pricing in 50 bp each for the next 3 Fed meetings.   For the Dec meeting the swaps indicate a 25 bp increase. I suspect when we get to Dec it will also be 50 bp.   This means by the end of 2022 Fed Funds rate will be 2% higher than today which would be 3%  A start but no aggressive enough in my view.  Fed Fund rate should be at least 4% if not 5% by the end of the year.   The Fed is taking a lot of risk by being so timid. 

While the FED is independent, we all know Powell's meeting with Biden is gonna go something like "um, could you please not do 75 bp until the midterms, pretty please?", so that's why I think we will only be at 3% by the end of 22. Not because they aren't aware of how royalty they screwed up with their "transitory inflation" and rabid money printing.

Anyway, thank god they didn't give out more "stimmies", we could have been over 10% by now.

Also, what's the word on American MSM, they still selling the "supply chains!!!!" story lol? 

[Omega21]

Fed raises rates 75 bp.  Hopefully this is the beginning and we can get to Fed rates of at least 4% over the next few cycles.  I suspect the Fed will still end up behind the curve.

What do you think are the chances of us getting Volcker'd in the next 2 years?

I am thankful for the buying opportunities over the coming months, but I wouldn't really like to see insane rates a la 80s.