Yeah, the lack of Missouri surprises me.
Recent polls have clearly shown the state competitive against Romney.
Maybe the have some internal polling that suggests MO, IN and GA are not really competitive.
If the Obama campaign tries to reach extreme southwest Michigan it has to buy ad time in the South Bend market. For extreme northwestern Ohio the Obama campaign has to buy in the Fort Wayne market. Cincinnati and Dayton broadcast areas include sizable chunks of Indiana.
In 2008 the Obama campaign found Indiana very close as Michigan became uncompetitive... and it reallocated advertising from places like Michigan elsewhere... like Indiana. Ohio remained close, so the ads stayed on the air in Fort Wayne, and ads in South Bend were kept on the air for Indiana voters The Obama campaign started buying ad time in Indianapolis, Terre Haute, and Evansville.
Very simply: Indiana is more R than Ohio, and President Obama can't win Indiana without also winning Ohio, a fairly-similar state in demographics. The state stays D as roughly the difference between 350 and 360 electoral votes. Ohio, in contrast, is perhaps the difference between 265 and 285 electoral votes in some scenarios.
