The liberal Republic

[President Johnson]

February 24, 1976

ELECTION SPECIAL: Carter prevails in South Carolina; Muskie wins Nevada, Udall second



South Carolina Democratic Primary
✓ Jimmy Carter: 28.8%
Lloyd Bentsen: 24.7%
Edmund Muskie: 18.5%
Mo Udall: 10.9%
George McGovern: 9.8%
Frank Church: 7.1%


Nevada Democratic Caucus
✓ Edmund Muskie: 25.0%
Mo Udall: 20.7%
George McGovern: 20.5%
Frank Church: 16.6%
Lloyd Bentsen: 8.5%
Jimmy Carter: 8.3%

South Carolina gave Jimmy Carter the victory he badly needed. The most recent poll from the state saw a slight edge for Lloyd Bentsen, who ultimately came in second. His win gives former Governor Carter just little relief for his ongoing campaign, because he came in last in Nevada, where Edmund Muskie surprisingly edged out a victory over his rivals. George McGovern, who was expected to win the Silver State by a close margin fell to third place after Congressman Mo Udall heavily campaigned in the neighboring state of his native Arizona and finished second. More concern for McGovern should be his weak performance in South Carolina, where his support among Democrats is not very strong. But Senator Muskie has reason to worry in this region, too, since he couldn't get beyond the third place here either. "Both Mr. McGovern and Mr. Muskie must find ways to improve their standing in the South for the general election in November. Otherweise, a path towards 270 electoral votes looks like an uphill battle. Especially when Nelson Rockefeller is expected to overperform in the North Atlantic states", a commentator wrote for the Washington Post. He also suggested that Udall and Church are likely to drop out of the race soon, since they failed to win any state so far. "De facto, we have a four-way contest between Muskie, McGovern, Bentsen and Carter. Of course, Mr. Bentsen has yet a state to win as well, but he has overperformed early expectations and did very well in contests he wasn't supposed to. The looming Super Tuesday will clear the field and we will be able to see in which direction this primary battle will ultimately go", the report further states.


The Democratic map:

Edmund Muskie
George McGovern
Jimmy Carter
Lloyd Bentsen
Mo Udall
Frank Church


February 29, 1976: New Gallup polls

Good news for the president in the monthly Gallup polls: Rocky has gained popularity among the electorate as his approval rating climbed to 54%. The improving economy is mainly respsonsible for this developments, commentators say. The January jobs report showed job growth again and unemployment droping to 8.1%. Still a high number, but a signifcant improvement from the previous year. If job growth continues at the current rate, it will fall below 7% before election day in November. Rocky's robust approvals are also reflecting on general election polls: The president maintains healthy leads over any of the Democratic candidates. Among them, Muskie and McGovern are in a dead heat for the Democratic nomination, but Muskie does better in general election polls.

President Rockefeller job approval
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 40%


1976 Republican Party presidential nomination

President Nelson Rockefeller: 90%
Someone else/undecided: 10%


1976 Democratic Party presidential nomination

Senator George McGovern: 25%
Senator Edmund Muskie: 25%
Senator Lloyd Bentsen: 19%
Former Governor Jimmy Carter: 15%
Senator Frank Church: 6%
Representative Mo Udall: 5%
Someone else/undecided: 5%


1976 hypothetical general election match-ups

Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 55%
George McGovern (D): 38%

Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 52%
Edmund Muskie (D): 41%

Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 54%
Jimmy Carter (D): 40%

Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 54%
Lloyd Bentsen (D): 41%

Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 55%
Mo Udall (D): 39%

Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 55%
Frank Church (D): 39%

[OSR STANDS WITH PALESTINE]

Muskie’s head is shaped so weird

[President Johnson]

March 2, 1976

ELECTION SPECIAL: Super Tuesday produces wins for Muskie, McGovern, Carter and Bentsen; Udall and Church to drop out




Alabama Democratic Primary
✓ Jimmy Carter: 32.8%
Edmund Muskie: 25.2%
Lloyd Bentsen: 23.3%
George McGovern: 8.5%
Mo Udall: 4.3%
Frank Church: 3.9%

Arkansas Democratic Primary
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 38.0%
Jimmy Carter: 21.9%
Edmund Muskie: 19.4%
George McGovern: 11.5%
Mo Udall: 5.3%
Frank Church: 2.7%

Colorado Democratic Caucus
✓ George McGovern: 29.2%
Lloyd Bentsen: 22.5%
Edmund Muskie: 20.5%
Frank Church: 11.5%
Jimmy Carter: 8.4%
Mo Udall: 6.8%

Georgia Democratic Primary
✓ Jimmy Carter: 56.5%
Edmund Muskie: 19.0%
Lloyd Bentsen: 13.4%
George McGovern: 6.6%
Mo Udall: 2.3%
Frank Church: 1.1%

Massachusetts Democratic Primary
✓ Edmund Muskie: 37.2%
George McGovern: 31.0%
Lloyd Bentsen: 12.3%
Frank Church: 7.4%
Jimmy Carter: 7.4%
Mo Udall: 2.2%

Minnesota Democratic Caucus
✓ George McGovern: 34.5%
Edmund Muskie: 29.5%
Frank Church: 14.1%
Jimmy Carter: 9.2%
Lloyd Bentsen: 7.8%
Mo Udall: 3.8%

Oklahoma Democratic Primary
✓ Edmund Muskie: 29.1%
Lloyd Bentsen: 27.7%
George McGovern: 20.5%
Jimmy Carter: 13.4%
Mo Udall: 4.5%
Frank Church: 3.2%

Tennessee Democratic Primary
✓ Jimmy Carter: 28.5%
Lloyd Bentsen: 28.2%
George McGovern: 18.0%
Edmund Muskie: 15.8%
Frank Church: 6.5%
Mo Udall: 2.5%

Texas Democratic Primary
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 45.2%
Edmund Muskie: 22.2%
Jimmy Carter: 12.3%
George McGovern: 9.4%
Mo Udall: 7.7%
Frank Church: 1.2%

Virginia Democratic Primary
✓ Edmund Muskie: 25.7%
Lloyd Bentsen: 24.8%
Jimmy Carter: 21.4%
George McGovern: 18.4%
Frank Church: 3.3%
Mo Udall: 3.1%

Vermont Democratic Primary
✓ Edmund Muskie: 41.4%
George McGovern: 22.9%
Frank Church: 17.4%
Lloyd Bentsen: 10.1%
Jimmy Carter: 5.2%
Mo Udall: 2.2%


“Nomination far from settled, but Muskie is the frontrunner now”



Maine Senator Edmund Muskie has taken a small lead in the delegate count

As voters in several states cast their ballots for the Democratic primary, a clear winner has not determined. But Edmund Muskie clearly over performed expectations and polls by winning important contests or having a decent showing in races others decided in their favor. The Maine senator even won, unexpectedly, the state of Virginia, where Bentsen and Carter were splitting the southern votes from moderates and gave Muskie a small win. “While Super Tuesday didn’t settle the race for the Democratic nomination, it is fair to say that Senator Muskie has emerged as frontrunner”, an analyst wrote for the Washington Post. What became apparent, though, that long-time George McGovern has less support among voters than observers, and probably he himself, anticipated. Colorado and Minnesota were the only states he won on this March 2, and the senator’s performance in the many states of the south should be an alarming signal when it comes to the general election. Currently he is even trailing both Bentsen and Carter in the delegates count, with Muskie in the lead. But at this early state in the campaign, there is plently of time to overcome the deficit McGovern currently has.

The two southerners battling for the nomination, Jimmy Carter and Lloyd Bentsen, both had notable wins from this region. Both easily won their respective homestates, Georgia and Texas, as well as neighboring states that voted on this day (expect for Edmund Muskie's close win in Oklahoma, where Bentsen hoped to be victorious as well). Senator Bentsen keeps the edge over Governor Carter as he won the largest price this day, his native of Texas. Bentsen has also done better in most northern states than his rival, what helps his argument that he is the “most electable southerner”.


Frank Church and Mo Udall suspend their campaigns


Senator Frank Church (l) and Congressman Mo Udall dropped out of the race after poor showings on Super Tuesday, narrowing the field down to four candidates

For Senator Frank Church of Idaho and Congressman Mo Udall of Arizona, the 1976 presidential campaign ends on this Super Tuesday. At least when it comes to being a contender for the presidential nomination. Despite being able candidates with political skills, both missed to carry any state, thus making it impossible to catch up with their competitors. On election night, both gave a speech before supporters, thanking them and announcing their decision to leave the race. “I’ve done my best and will continue to do so that we elect a Democrat in the fall”, Udall said. “Our cause to fight for ordinary people and make government an honorable servant of the people goes on”, Church noted when he spoke to his friends and the public. The remaining four candidates thanked them for their “fair fought” campaigns and spoke well of the two former candidates. Media observers suggested both would be possible vice presidential candidates for whoever the nominee is. While Udall didn’t respond to such questions immediately, Senator Church said it was “premature” but of course “he’d pick up the phone”.


The Democratic map:

Edmund Muskie: ~ 9% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~6% of delegates
Jimmy Carter: ~ 4% of delegates
George McGovern: ~4% of delegates
Mo Udall: >1% of delegates
Frank Church: >1% of delegates
Scoop Jackson: 0% of delegates

[America Needs R'hllor]

This is exciting.

[Sir Mohamed]

Oh sad that Church is out, he was my preferred candidate.

I'd consider voting Rockefeller in the general, because he had a solid performance and I would hope for a RFK comeback (RFK/Church would be amazing). For the 1976 election, I predict a landslide Rockefeller victory. But go on, very well written!

[President Johnson]

Early March 1976: A contentious senate primary in New York takes shape



Senator James Buckley (Conservative-NY) is running for reelection as a Republican with President Nelson Rockefeller's blessing in exchange for some political favors

Amidst the Democratic presidential primaries, there are few down-ballot races worth following. One of them, and probably one of the closest watched senate elections, is the race in the Empire State. Incumbent senator James Buckley is running for reelection to a second term in office. Assigned with the regional New York Conservative Party, he is a member of the Republican Caucus in the senate and intends to run as a Republican in the upcoming election. In 1970, he defeated sitting Republican Charles Goodell, the current Labor Secretary, a Rockefeller appointee to fill the seat vacated by Robert Kennedy’s election to the vice presidency, as well as the Democrat. Recent reports with sources directly from the White House revealed that the president eyed to replace Buckley with a more moderate Republican from his former Albany circles. As sources confirm, Rocky ultimately backed off to avoid a party split and struck a deal with Buckley: The president would de facto support the senator’s reelection in exchange for Buckley rallying conservatives across the nation and being not too outspoken in his opposition to the administration’s détente policy. According to insider information, former California governor Ronald Reagan at a private White House reception earlier this year urged Nelson Rockefeller to back Senator Buckley and some other of his conservative allies at Capitol Hill. In return, Reagan promised to get conservatives to support the reelection campaign of President Rockefeller. Reagan, who wants to remain in the spotlight, already stumped the campaign trail for down-ballot GOP candidates across the nation, including members of the party’s moderate wing.


Bella Abzug and Pat Moynihan want to run against Buckley, but Governor Bobby Kennedy is not ready to back either of them for different reasons...

On the Democratic side, things are different and more interesting: The race for the opposing party’s nomination first seemed to be a head-to-head contest between Congresswoman and prominent feminist Bella Abzug and the more conservative public servant Pat Moynihan, who was ambassador to India under President Lyndon Johnson. For a while, New York Governor Robert Kennedy seemed to stay neutral in the race, but according to one of his aides, the former vice president became more and more unhappy with both of these candidates: “The governor thinks Abzug is too controversial to win the election and Moynihan is too conservative for his taste”, the New York Times wrote. “Bobby Kennedy, after his narrow 1972 loss to Nelson Rockefeller and his comeback two years later, still remains to most influential Democrat in the entire nation alongside Majority Leader Humphrey, and his voice should not be underestimated in this process.” Beginning in early February, RFK reportedly begun searching for an alternate candidate who could unseat Buckley in November and be a voice for his own policies on the senate floor. By early March, he apparently found his man: His own lieutenant governor Mario Cuomo was Bobby’s favorite to reclaim his old senate seat for the Democrats. Mr. Cuomo, whose selection as RFK’s running mate in the 1974 gubernatorial election was a surprise for almost anyone, is reportedly ready to jump into the senate race lately. He had to be talked out of a planned candidacy for mayor of New York City in the off-year elections in 1977. Mr. Cuomo is expected to announce his senate bid within the coming days and change the dynamic of a very closely watched senate contest.



... instead, RFK encourages his lieutenant governor Mario Cuomo to run

The New York primaries for president and the senate will take place on April 20. Just by the end of last year, Governor Bobby Kennedy signed a law to move the down-ballot primaries from September to April when the presidential primary also takes place.


March 6, 1976

ELECTION SPECIAL: McGovern wins Kansas and Nebraska, Bentsen takes Louisiana; bad night for Carter



Kansas Democratic Caucus
✓ George McGovern: 31.5%
Edmund Muskie: 28.1%
Lloyd Bentsen: 23.3%
Jimmy Carter: 17.0%

Louisiana Democratic Primary
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 39.2%
Edmund Muskie: 24.2%
Jimmy Carter: 23.5%
George McGovern: 12.8%

Nebraska Democratic Primary
✓ George McGovern: 36.0%
Edmund Muskie: 27.4%
Lloyd Bentsen: 22.0%
Jimmy Carter: 14.1%




For Jimmy Carter, it wasn't a good night

March 6, 1976 was a Saturday and saw three primaries in smaller states. Two in the Great Plains and one in the South. George McGovern, whose campaign successfully reached out to farmers, won contests in Kansas and Nebraska, each by decent, though not massive, margin. After underperforming on Super Tuesday earlier this week, the South Dakota senator has regained some momentum for his campaign. In Louisiana, Lloyd Bentsen scored an easy victory over his rivals, most notably fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter, who even finished slightly behind Edmund Muskie. Muskie came in second in all of these three caucuses and primaries following his success on Super Tuesday. For Senator Bentsen, this Saturday worked out pretty well while Jimmy Carter’s campaign is back in the crisis mode. The former Georgia governor and 1972 vice presidential nominee heavily underperformed in these March 6 races after Bentsen already took southern states away from him. States, Mr. Carter initially hoped to secure early on to gain enough momentum on his way to the nomination. Lloyd Bentsen is the actual surprise in this whole race. When he announced his candidacy in mid-1975, he was not expected to do this well and last that long; and even if he falls short in the end, he had a solid performance that keeps the door open for future presidential ambitions or even make him a leading contender for the vice presidential nomination this cycle.


The Democratic map:

Edmund Muskie: ~ 9% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~7% of delegates
George McGovern: ~6% of delegates
Jimmy Carter: ~ 4% of delegates
Mo Udall: >1% of delegates
Frank Church: >1% of delegates
Scoop Jackson: 0% of delegates

[President Johnson]

March 9, 1976

ELECTION SPECIAL: McGovern wins Michigan, Muskie his native Maine, Bentsen upsets Carter in Mississippi



Maine Democratic Caucus
✓ Edmund Muskie: 66.2%
George McGovern: 18.3%
Lloyd Bentsen: 9.4%
Jimmy Carter: 5.8%

Michigan Democratic Primary
✓ George McGovern: 35.9%
Edmund Muskie: 30.3%
Lloyd Bentsen: 22.4%
Jimmy Carter: 11.1%

Mississippi Democratic Primary
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 32.8%
Jimmy Carter: 32.3%
Edmund Muskie: 24.6%
George McGovern: 9.9%

Lloyd Bentsen was the name most talked about on this election night. While George McGovern managed to decide the Michigan primary in his favor and Edmund Muskie, as expected, won his native of Maine decisively, Bentsen upset Carter in Mississippi. The latest polls saw a clear advantage for the former Georgia governor, but the Texas senator pulled out a close victory. ?A stunning upset that gives Mr. Bentsen momentum?, a CBS reporter in Mississippi told Walter Cronkite in his studio. Although Bentsen must start winning states outside the South if he wants to remain a factor in this race, he is now far ahead of Jimmy Carter in delegate count and the popular vote. Carter hoped to end his streak of defeats in Mississippi, and again he fell short. Political observers wrote that a Carter nomination is almost ?off the table? at this point. ?It is not just the raw delegate count, it is also the lost momentum?, the Washington Post wrote the next day.


The Democratic map:

Edmund Muskie: ~ 10% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~ 8% of delegates
George McGovern: ~ 8% of delegates
Jimmy Carter: ~ 4% of delegates
Mo Udall: >1% of delegates
Frank Church: >1% of delegates
Scoop Jackson: 0% of delegates


March 11, 1976

BREAKING: Jimmy Carter quits presidential campaign



Just the previous evening, rumors began to swirl that Jimmy Carter would suspend his campaign after he returned to Plains, Georgia. That night, his team announced an ?important announcement? the next morning. In the early hours of March 11, Jimmy Carter addressed supporters and the press in Georgia:

Jimmy Carter: Ladies and Gentlemen, my dear friends. When I started this campaign last September, I promised you to be open and honest. Now to say it doesn?t hurt would not be true. But I came to the conclusion that we lack the amount of support from our fellow Democrats we need to win the nomination. Therefore [No! No! shouts]? Therefore, I will suspend my campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination. It was an honor to represent all of you; Rosalyn and I are proud for the support you gave as and it will always remain in our hearts. Thank you, god bless you, and god bless the United States of America.

In the end, Mr. Carter?s drop-out was a logical consequence of a campaign ill organized that failed to gain traction on the ground and struggled with fundraising. After Carter?s exit from the race, some of his staffers spoke ill of Governor Robert Kennedy, blaming him for not endorsing his former running mate. Kennedy circles didn?t respond to the criticism.

Whether his political career would be over remains to be seen, but many observers wrote the 52 year old former governor off after his failed campaign and the defeat as RFK?s running mate in 1972.


March 13, 1976: President Rockefeller establishes anti-discrimination bureau within Armed Forces, reaches out to blacks



President Rockefeller meets with civil rights leaders before he announces a new civil rights policy within the armed forces

While the Democrats are engaged in their nomination battle, President Nelson Rockefeller just made few campaign stumps and rarely commented on the Democratic primary. But it is an open secret that he likes to run against George McGovern because he feels that he is the easiest to beat. Ronald Reagan commented he?d like McGovern to represent the Democrats in the election; McGovern himself accused the Rockefeller White House and its ?right-wing allies around Mr. Reagan? of ?arrogance?. Instead, the president continues to make policy from the Oval Office. But in recent months, especially since the November 1975 race riots in Detroit, he has increased his efforts to reach out to the black community through policy initiatives:

- Already in January, President Rockefeller instructed the Justice Department under Attorney General Brooke to review execution of civil rights laws and tighten up the process to make sure blacks in the South would vote in the upcoming election.

- On March 1, President Rockefeller approved a presidential memorandum for Defense Secretary Romney to work out a plan how more leading positions within the armed forces can be filled with blacks and other minorities. The president already appointed an unprecedented number of African Americans to high-ranking posts in all federal departments.

- On March 4, President Rockefeller granted executive clemency to over 400 non-violent drug offenders, mostly blacks, which were imprisoned under a 1973 law he approved and former Attorney General Agnew forcefully executed under the ongoing ?War on Drugs?.

On March 13, 1976, the president signed an Executive Order to establish an anti-discrimination bureau for the armed forces. Its purpose is simple: African Americans and other minorities serving in the armed forces can reach out to the bureau if they feel discriminated. The bureau then reviews the case and, if needed, provides legal assistance for victims of discrimination. The order also makes it easier for commanders who abuse their power to get fired. Defense Secretary George Romney announced he would immediately enforce the new policy. The civil rights community praised Rocky?s most recent actions and pointed out that he already was strong on the issue while serving as New York?s governor. Coretta Scott King, widow of late Martin Luther King, said that President Rockefeller was ?a true champion of civil rights?.



Coretta Scott King: "I appreciate the work President Nelson Rockefeller is doing for the African American community."

[President Johnson]

March 16, 1976

ELECTION SPECIAL: Important wins for Muskie on Super Tuesday II, McGovern still in striking distance, Bentsen wins only North Carolina



Florida Democratic primary
✓ Edmund Muskie: 42.3%
Lloyd Bentsen: 37.1%
George McGovern: 18.0%
Jimmy Carter: 2.1%

Illinois Democratic primary
✓ Edmund Muskie: 50.0%
George McGovern: 31.3%
Lloyd Bentsen: 17.6%

Missouri Democratic Primary
✓ George McGovern: 38.5%
Lloyd Bentsen: 30.4%
Edmund Muskie: 30.2%

North Carolina Democratic Primary
✓ Lloyd Bentsen: 48.1%
Edmund Muskie: 30.8%
George McGovern: 20.5%

Ohio Democratic Primary
✓ George McGovern: 43.6%
Edmund Muskie: 37.9%
Lloyd Bentsen: 17.7%

Also known as Super Tuesday II, March 16 saw wins for both major candidates, Ed Muskie and George McGovern, though the latter is still trailing the Maine senator in delegate count. However, there remains a pathway to the nomination for him after his impressing win in Ohio. Muskie surprisingly took Florida, a state that was expected to turn in Lloyd Bentsen’s favor. Bentsen was able to win a state on this day, though: He won the Democratic primary in North Carolina pretty easily. Muskie’s second place finish here as well as his upset victory in the Sunshine State, according to local Democratic officeholders, confirms his electability in the South, a region the party is even more worried now than in 1972. Nelson Rockefeller has built a strong campaign operation down there to drive cross-over African American support with the help of HUD Secretary Ivan Allen, who chairs “Democrats for Rockefeller”.


The Democratic map:

Edmund Muskie: ~ 17% of delegates
George McGovern: ~ 15% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~ 11% of delegates
Jimmy Carter: ~ 4% of delegates
Mo Udall: >1% of delegates
Frank Church: >1% of delegates
Scoop Jackson: 0% of delegates
Unpledged delegates¹: 5%

¹ unpledged/released delegates from dropped out candidates


March 19, 1976: Mario Cuomo enters hotly contested senate race in New York


Governor Bobby Kennedy of New York persuaded his lieutenant governor Mario Cuomo to enter the race for senate; Cuomo now officially entered the contest to unseat James Buckley

Out of all senate races this year, the contest in New York has driven the highest attention so far. With incumbent James Buckley running unopposed for the Republican nomination (what President Rockefeller reluctantly accepted in exchange for political favors and support from the conservative wing), the focus is now on the Democratic primary, scheduled for April: Lieutenant Governor Mario Cuomo has now officially entered the face. He is backed by his current boss, Governor Bobby Kennedy, who encouraged him to step into the race to stop conservative Democrat Pat Moynihan and feminist Bella Abzug from representing the party in the November election. “I believe we must unseat James Buckley, who has not represented the values of the Empire State”, Governor Kennedy said at Cuomo’s announcement rally, “I don’t know a better man to beat him and be the senator New York state deserves than my dear friend Mario Cuomo.” In his remarks, Cuomo thanked RFK and said he would oppose the Rockefeller Administration where needed but work with the president to find common ground for the interest of the state and the nation.

A poll just released by the New York Times the day after shows a virtual tie between Cuomo, Abzug and Moynihan for the nomination, each at roughly 30% support. While Abzug trailed Buckley for the general election 41-45%, Moynihan was in a dead heat with the incumbent at 43-43%. Cuomo led Buckley in the same poll 47-44%. President Nelson Rockefeller’s approval rating in New York was at 59%, the poll found, while 62% of New Yorkers approved Governor Robert Kennedy’s performance in office.

[Sir Mohamed]

Great, go Cuomo!

[America Needs R'hllor]

I'm actually gonna break with RFK here- go Moynihan, one of the greatest FFs in American politics! Abzug would be my 2nd preference, since Cuomo used homophobic slurs in his campaign in our TL.

[Continential]

Cuomo or Abzug as they are great

[President Johnson]

March 23, 1976

ELECTION SPECIAL: Muskie wins Arizona, McGovern Idaho and Utah

Arizona Democratic primary
✓ Edmund Muskie: 39.9%
Lloyd Bentsen: 30.4%
George McGovern: 27.4%

Idaho Democratic Caucus
✓ George McGovern: 46.6%
Edmund Muskie: 37.1%
Lloyd Bentsen: 16.0%

Utah Democratic Caucus
✓ George McGovern: 44.2%
Edmund Muskie: 34.5%
Lloyd Bentsen: 20.9%

Hardly a game changer, Senator McGovern won two out of three contests, but Senator Muskie won the biggest individual prize of the day: He took Arizona following the important endorsement of former candidate and Congressman Mo Udall (D-AZ) two days before. Lloyd Bentsen hoped to edge out a win in Arizona, but came in a distant second. Political observers already write his chances nearly off and raised the theory that he intends to win the vice presidential spot.


March 24, 1976: Jimmy Carter and Carl Albert endorse Edmund Muskie


Former candidate Jimmy Carter and outgoing Speaker Carl Albert expressed their preference for Edmund Muskie in the Democratic primary

Good news for Edmund Muskie: He picked up two notable endorsements. One from his former rival, Jimmy Carter, who praised Muskie’s “pragmatism and honesty” and another one from retiring House Speaker Carl Albert (D-OK). Senate Majority Leader Hubert Humphrey was declined to give a formal endorsement before the nomination is settled, but tactically he has supported Muskie by allowing him to give more senate speeches and support bills that come out of the Maine senator’s office.


March 30, 1976

ELECTION SPECIAL: Alaska for McGovern; Hawaii and Washington for Muskie!

Alaska Democratic Caucus
✓ George McGovern: 49.4%
Edmund Muskie: 36.4%
Lloyd Bentsen: 13.3%

Hawaii Democratic Caucus
✓ Edmund Muskie: 42.7%
George McGovern: 35.3%
Lloyd Bentsen: 20.8%

Washington State Democratic Caucus
✓ Edmund Muskie: 41.9%
George McGovern: 41.3%
Lloyd Bentsen: 15.1%

On March 30, the eyes of the nation went on the west. A good night for Edmund Muskie: He won the contest in the state of Hawaii, where he just held one campaign rally back in February, and upset George McGovern in Washington State by a very slim margin. McGovern obviously made a mistake by assuming he had the state in his bag and shifting attention to Wisconsin and New York, where primaries would be held in April. Muskie’s lead in the delegate count has shrunk by the end of March, with McGovern just barely behind. Some journalists already said with confidence that either Muskie or McGovern would be the nominee. “The odds are 50% Muskie and 45% McGovern at this point, with 5% someone else as a result of a brokered convention”, Walter Cronkite told his viewers on CBS. Sources close to the White House told the press, President Rockefeller is confident that he can beat both handily, but a staffer to Vice President Ford admitted the incumbent Republican ticket prefers McGovern as opponent since this would give them a larger mandate in November.


BREAKING: Lloyd Bentsen gives up – suspends his campaign



Senator Lloyd Bentsen fell short in the end, but he exceeded expectations in his race, keeping the doors for higher office in the future open

For Lloyd Bentsen, the final March contests were not encouraging. Although he garnered more support than expected in Northern and Western states, he was unable to attract enough Democratic primary voters to win a state of his own outside the South. In the late evening hours, Senator Bentsen announced the end of his campaign. Surrounded by a cheering group of supporters in Dallas, Texas, he gave an emotional speech by thanking volunteers and voters for their trust. “We fought as hard as we could, and we did way better than everyone expected as to perform. I am really proud of the campaign we ran and I hope that one day, our visions will be fulfilled”, the senator said. Bentsen encouraged his people to continue as he was seeking reelection to the senate (his seat was also up for election in 1976). Although the Texan fell short this time, he surprised America with a strong performance and his probably – for Muskie and McGovern alike – a top contender for the vice presidential spot. “We may be back in the game sooner than we think”, Bentsen closed his remarks. For some, this was already an indication he considers himself a potential running mate for the nominee. And while George McGovern said it was way too early to talk about VPs, Edmund Muskie publically congratulated his former rival to a “remarkable strong campaign”. Asked whether Bentsen could join a Muskie ticket, he responded: “Anyone who ran such a campaign is obviously a viable choice, but it’s too early to talk about this.”


The Democratic map:

Edmund Muskie: ~ 21% of delegates
George McGovern: ~ 20% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~ 11% of delegates
Jimmy Carter: ~ 4% of delegates
Mo Udall: >1% of delegates
Frank Church: >1% of delegates
Scoop Jackson: 0% of delegates
Unpledged delegates¹: 16%

¹ unpledged/released delegates from dropped out candidates


March 31, 1976: New Gallup polls

Little change in the president's approval rating in March as it dropped a little, but is still over 50%. For Nelson Rockefeller, there is not much to worry anway: He continues to hold a significant leader over both remaining Democratic contenders Edmund Muskie and George McGovern. For the Democrats, there is one more warning: The generic ballot poll, conducted for the first time in this cycle, has them up by just one point, which is a statistical tie. With these numbers, they would at least lose the seats they gained in the 1974 midterm elections and just keep a very slim majority in the House. They would also lose two or three seats in the senate, which is currently 55-45 Democratic.


President Rockefeller job approval
Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 41%


1976 Democratic Party presidential nomination

Senator Edmund Muskie: 45%
Senator George McGovern: 41%
Someone else/undecided: 14%


1976 hypothetical general election match-ups

Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 54%
George McGovern (D): 37%

Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 52%
Edmund Muskie (D): 40%


1976 generic congressional ballot

Democrats: 45%
Republicans: 44%

[President Johnson]

April 6, 1976

ELECTION SPECIAL: Double win for McGovern in Wisconsin and Wyoming. A turning point?



Wisconsin Democratic Caucus
✓ George McGovern: 52.9%
Edmund Muskie: 44.0%

Wyoming Democratic Primary
✓ George McGovern: 56.2%
Edmund Muskie: 41.3%

Are the two primaries of April 6 a turning point in the Democratic race or just a last hurrah of the McGovern campaign? George McGovern has managed to beat Edmund Muskie in both Wisconsin and Wyoming. These two victories, especially Wisconsin, pushes the South Dakota Senator ahead of his colleague from Maine in the delegate count, though he is still trailing in popular vote tallies overall. But the delegate count is what matters. The next primary is on April 20 in New York, where a large number of delegates are at stake. The outcome in the Empire State may become the real turning point here.


The Democratic map:

George McGovern: ~ 23% of delegates
Edmund Muskie: ~ 21% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~ 11% of delegates
Jimmy Carter: ~ 4% of delegates
Mo Udall: >1% of delegates
Frank Church: >1% of delegates
Scoop Jackson: 0% of delegates
Unpledged delegates¹: 16%

¹ unpledged/released delegates from dropped out candidates


ELECTION SPECIAL: Nelson Rockefeller is the presumptive Republican nominee



President Nelson Rockefeller has now officially secured more than enough safe delegates to capture the Republican presidential election again. He is de facto running unopposed for his party’s top spot, after all notable Republicans declined to challenge the sitting president. So far, he received at least 90% in each state contest, with some percentage points going to minor local candidates. Since the beginning of the month, President Rockefeller increased his campaign activities: He gave 15 speeches, traveled a dozen of states and frequently appeared on several local radio shows. His surrogates, mostly from within the administration, have conducted a series of rallies and attended fundraisers all over the country since the beginning of the year. Most notably, Vice President Gerald Ford made several speeches on his bosses’ behalf, especially at his base in the Midwest. Neither the president nor his surrogates commented much on the nomination battle on the Democratic side so far. Even direct attacks from the McGovern camp did not entice Nelson Rockefeller to respond.


April 9, 1976: “Hubert, you gotta do something”; Leaks reveal many Democratic leaders fear McGovern nomination



Senate Majority Leader Hubert Humphrey gets urged to do something to stop McGovern

Three days after the primaries in Wisconsin and Wyoming, the New York Times first reported on a leak within the Democratic leadership, both the National Committee (DNC) and congressional leaders. According to these sources, Democratic leaders are concerned that George McGovern may win the nomination for president. They fear that the controversial and very liberal senator is headed for a landslide loss to Nelson Rockefeller in November and even threaten Democratic majorities in the congress and give Republicans complete control of Washington for the first time since 1954. From one leaker, the Times received a protocol from a telephone call between Senate Majority Leader Hubert Humphrey and California Senator Alan Cranston, who urged Humphrey to reconsider his official neutrality in the primary. Especially because Humphrey is very popular in the Midwest, among progressives and unions members, which are also strong backers of McGovern.


Here is an excerpt of the call, dated April 7:

Senator Cranston: Hubert, you gotta do something about this guy, McGovern. I tell you, if he wins the nomination, we’re done. We might lose the House or even the senate. God forbid. This can’t happen. We can’t allow this. I talked to lots of folks over from the the House, they all tell me the story. It's goddamn serious.

Leader Humphrey: I know, Alan. George is a good man, but the points you’re making are accurate. So, what do we do?

Senator Cranston: You gotta endorse Muskie...

Leader Humphrey: And break my word? Does my endorsement in the remaining states even matter? Maybe. Maybe not.

Senator Cranston: You gotta do something, Hubert. My goodness, we can’t lose congress. The GOP right-wingers gonna hold Rocky hostage and prepare Raygun to get in. You want this? We have to send Ed up against Rocky. He might lose, too, but we keep congress and make more gains in ’78.

Leader Humphrey: That’s correct.

Senator Cranston: Man, if just Bobby would endorse Ed before the New York primary. He wants us to lose that he can try again in ’80. He always puts himself and his family ahead of the party. I hate it. I truly hate it.

Leader Humphrey: Yea, Bobby ain't do anything. He wants Cuomo in the senate and look forward to '80.

Both Majority Leader Hubert Humphrey and Senator Alan Cranston denied to comment on the New York Times story, but Humphrey’s office confirmed he intends to remain neutral. Edmund Muskie had not much to say other than his campaign was about winning the “hearts and minds of voters, not politicians”.  His rival, George McGovern, accused the Republicans of spreading such “dirty stories” in order to portray Democrats as divided. Republican circles deny any involvement, a spokesman to the Rockefeller campaign called the accusation by McGovern “complete nonsense”. Other Republicans used the report to smear McGovern. Ronald Reagan responded on his weekly television show: “It is well known that Mr. McGovern is a left-wing radical. Now we witness that even the old guard of the Democratic Party is running away from him as fast as they can.”


April 17, 1976: Polling special edition for New York

Some polls from the state of New York, released three days before the primaries, show a neck-in-neck race both the presidential as well as the senate level.

New York Democratic presidential primary
George McGovern: 45%
Edmund Muskie: 44%
Undecided: 11%

New York general election match-ups
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 55%
Edmund Muskie: (D): 40%

Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 57%
George McGovern (D): 39%


New York Senate Democratic Primary
Pat Moynihan: 29%
Mario Cuomo:  27%
Bella Abzug: 24%
Undecided: 20%

New York Senate election match-ups
Pat Moynihan (D): 48%
James Buckley (R, inc.): 43%

Mario Cuomo (D): 47%
James Buckley (R, inc.): 43%

James Buckley (R, inc.): 45%
Bella Abzug (D): 42%

[President Johnson]

April 20, 1976

ELECTION SPECIAL: New York for Muskie! Cuomo wins hotly contested senate primary!



New York Democratic primary
✓ Edmund Muskie: 52.1%
George McGovern: 46.6%

A huge victory for Edmund Muskie! Polls predicted a close race against George McGovern, but in the end, the Maine senator emerged victorious in the Empire State. This again puts Muskie in the lead in the total delegate count over his only remaining competitor and is a major step towards the nomination. While Muskie celebrated his success, McGovern said it was defeat, but he would fight on. “The battle may be lost, but our fight towards a better and more just America continues. I am a fighter and will remain one, no matter what happens”, he told supporters in New York City. McGovern did considerably better within New York and even won Brooklyn and the Bronx by double digits, but underperformed in Upstate New York, what cost him the election.


The Democratic map:

Edmund Muskie: ~ 28% of delegates
George McGovern: ~ 23% of delegates
Lloyd Bentsen: ~ 11% of delegates
Jimmy Carter: ~ 4% of delegates
Mo Udall: >1% of delegates
Frank Church: >1% of delegates
Scoop Jackson: 0% of delegates
Unpledged delegates¹: 16%

¹ unpledged/released delegates from dropped out candidates


New York Senate Democratic primary
✓ Mario Cuomo: 40.8%
Pat Moynihan: 34.7%
Bella Abzug: 23.9%



Mario Cuomo has won the Democratic nomination for the senate in New York

In the end, it was easier that he himself thought: Lieutenant Governor Mario Cuomo seized a clear victory in the Democratic primary for senate. The RFK backed candidate, who is considered a standard liberal Democrat, defeated the more conservative diplomat Pat Moynihan and feminist congresswoman Bella Abzug by considerable margin. Cuomo served as Governor Kennedy’s second-in-command since January 1975 and will now face off against Republican senator James Buckley in November in a race that drew national attention. Cuomo also won the support of the minor Liberal Party.


April 22, 1976: George McGovern gets into heated exchange with Richard Nixon during senate hearing



After Senator George McGovern criticized the administration's foreign policy, Secretary of State Richard Nixon fought back at a Republican fundraiser

For George McGovern and Edmund Muskie, it was a difficult balance between campaigning and the senate. Both tried to make a busy impression since Republican circles repeatedly criticized them for not showing up to work. Just before the New York primary, Secretary of State Richard Nixon, who largely remained silent on the presidential campaign so far, attacked McGovern at a Republican fundraiser: “There is Senator McGovern, who accuses the president of arrogance because he [President Rockefeller] is busy with governing instead of being 24/7 on the [campaign] trail. Is this the same man who has a poor attendance record in the senate? So, he rarely shows up for work in the senate but thinks he himself was qualified to run the entire country? Draw your own conclusions what kind of a leader this would be.” Before Nixon’s remarks, McGovern attacked the administration’s foreign policy as “inconsistent”, described Nixon as an “insider hack and possibly corrupt” and accused President Nelson Rockefeller of “arrogance”, because he just made few campaign speeches so far. “Senator McGovern can say whatever he wants”, Nixon told the audience, “as a matter of fact, the American people greatly support this administration’s foreign policy because it is right. The other side has nothing substantial to offer.”



Then Senator McGovern got into a heated exchange with Nixon during a routine senate hearing

On April 22, 1976, Secretary Nixon appeared before the senate for a routine hearing, mainly to report on the progress of the SALT II treaty that was, according the Nixon, ready for signing later this year. After George McGovern took over the role as interviewer, he asked just one question on policy before his attention shifted towards the previous feud with Nixon:

Senator McGovern: Mr. Secretary, do you find it appropriate to comment on the ongoing presidential campaign as you have done recently in an effort to discredit certain candidates critical of the administration? And do you think this is helpful for America’s standing in the world?

Secretary Nixon: Senator, I assume you refer to my speech at a Republican fundraiser on April 19 in Hartford, Connecticut. What I can say is that even though I am serving as secretary of state, and am honored to do so, I have expressed my personal thoughts on the campaign. I have done so on American soil and I find none of the points I made are particular offensive or inaccurate. I deeply regret if you, Senator, feel otherwise. The points I made have only stated facts, of whom which I drew some of my own conclusions.

Senator McGovern: So, you think this was appropriate, Mr. Secretary?

Secretary Nixon: Senator, I have nothing more to add. If you feel my answer has been incomplete, you may specify or rephrase the question.

Senator McGovern: I am happy to do this for you, Secretary Nixon. Do you think it is appropriate if the Secretary of State, the chief diplomat of this nation who represents the President of the United States, is engaged in this kind of campaigning?

Secretary Nixon: Excuse me, Senator. I have made some political comments at a party fundraiser. I stated facts rather than getting engaged in corruption accusions against sitting officeholders that are false and misleading the American people. Facts, concerning attendance records of senators that happened to be candidates, and drew conclusion. If you want to argue this is inappropriate in general, you basically argue the secretary of state is not in title of an own opinion and not in title to defend the policies of this administration, that he is a key member of. I have an obligation…

Senator McGovern: Mr. Secretary, with all due respect, I couldn’t…

Secretary Nixon: Excuse me, Sir, I have not finished… I have an obligation to defend the foreign policy agenda that President Rockefeller has set and entrusted me to exercise. I believe I have the right to defend them.

Senator McGovern: So, Mr. Secretary, you do not regret your remarks and you find it appropriate to even speak on such events?

Secretary Nixon: With all due respect, I have already answered that question and nothing more to say.

Senator McGovern: Because you, Mr. Secretary, have nothing more to defend on your partisan, and in my judgement inappropriate, conduct?

Secretary Nixon: With all due respect, Senator, I reject and disagree on the remarks you just made. Neither do I have an explanation why you seem to be obsessed with this speech that I gave and why you are willing to devote so much of your time in this hearing to this subject that has hardly anything to do with actual policies.

Senator McGovern: As I told then-Attorney General Agnew a couple of years ago: I determine the questions.

Secretary Nixon: This is right, but you may let people determine the quality of these questions. The fact that you devoted almost all your time to this topic unrelated to foreign policy leads me the conclusion that you misuse this hearing for political purposes. Possibly in light of most recent election outcomes, but this conclusion is not mine to make. The American people will make fair judgement on this.

Senator McGovern: Thank you very, very much for your cooperation, Secretary Nixon, I have no further questions.

The clash between Senator McGovern and Secretary Nixon made top headlines the next day. However, while all Republicans as well as the White House came out in defense of Nixon, just a limited number of Democrats defended McGovern. Edmund Muskie refused to comment and Senator Albert Brewer (D-AL) said McGovern “shot himself in the foot”, when asked by a reporter. Most media observers, even Democratic friendly ones, were critical of McGovern’s questioning. Walter Cronkite on CBS said that the South Dakota Senator made ill judgement if he thought that would help him after the bitter defeat in the New York primary.

[Cold War Liberal]

McGovern could have hit Nixon on what could be a violation of the Hatch Act, but instead he came off as petty. SAD!

Muskie 76!

(One of my favorite timelines BTW)

[President Johnson]

McGovern could have hit Nixon on what could be a violation of the Hatch Act, but instead he came off as petty. SAD!

Muskie 76!

(One of my favorite timelines BTW)

Thanks! I have this for later on

[Sir Mohamed]

Great, I liked the Nixon/McGovern clash and the Humphrey leak. Hope Muskie wins the nomination, though I expect him to lose big league in Nov.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I am rooting for McGovern so Rockefeller Can Win Re-election.

[Politician]

Here's my Rockefeller vs McGovern prediction:

[President Johnson]

April 27, 1976

ELECTION SPECIAL: Muskie sweeps Mid-Atlantic and New England primaries!



Connecticut Democratic primary
✓ Edmund Muskie: 58.6%
George McGovern: 39.8%

Delaware Democratic primary
✓ Edmund Muskie: 54.4%
George McGovern: 44.2%

Maryland Democratic primary
✓ Edmund Muskie: 55.1%
George McGovern: 42.9%

Pennsylvania Democratic primary
✓ Edmund Muskie: 51.0%
George McGovern: 48.8%

Rhode Island Democratic primary
✓ Edmund Muskie: 60.2%
George McGovern: 38.5%

What a night for Edmund Muskie! As five states in the Mid-Atlantic as well as New England were holding their primaries on this April 27, the senator from Maine swept all five of them. George McGovern failed to win any contest, although he came pretty close in Pennsylvania, the largest state that held a primary this day. For the South Dakota senator, it was a bitter defeat. For Muskie, it was the biggest night as he took a giant step towards the Democratic nomination. ?I don?t see a scenario how he does not become the standard bearer for the Democratic Party?, CBS Anchor Walter Cronkite commented in the late night news. A deeply moved Edmund Muskie thanked his supporters late in the night when Pennsylvania became the last state called his favor. ?Let?s move on to Denver!?, he told supporters, referring to the city that will host the Democratic National Convention in summer.


April 28, 1976

BREAKING: McGovern quits presidential race ? MUSKIE IS THE PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE!



George McGovern, who just returned to his South Dakota headquarters the night he lost five important primaries, didn?t speak to supporters that evening anymore, instead returned to his hotel suite. The next morning, his team announced a statement by the senator scheduled for some time in the noon. At 12.30 p.m., McGovern entered a room of about 100 cheering and clapping supporters. It seemed as if he had just won the nomination. Yet, everybody anticipated something else. After the massive applause calmed down, he begun to talk:

Senator McGovern: Thank you all very much. Thank you. I appreciate your support and, frankly, your love. Thank you very much? Now, today, I want to thank all of you for your incredible support. The millions who entrusted me with their vote and all the thousands who worked their heart out for this campaign and our cause. All those brave men and women who organized, persuaded and did everything they could to move this campaign forward. Your support fills me with gratitude and humility. But today, it is time to acknowledge, that, despite our efforts, our support his not enough to win the nomination of the Democratic Party for president. An hour ago, I called Senator Edmund Muskie on a remarkable campaign and congratulated him on his most recent victories. I told him that I will suspend my campaign, release my delegates and encourage everyone to support him as our presidential nominee to oust the Rockefeller/Ford Administration. He has thanked me and pledged to work as hard as he can to earn your support. I have known Ed for a while now and he has been a fine colleague in the senate and he will make a great president. From this day forward, let us unite as one party to reclaim the White House in an effort to make America a better place. Thank you all again, may god bless you and may god bless America.

As McGovern left the stage, many supporters in the room and across the country couldn?t hold back their sadness and disappointment. They hoped McGovern, who was never afraid of a fight, would fight towards the end. Even in the Muskie camp seemed surprised in the first moment. Muskie himself gave a statement and thanked his opponent for a "tough but overall fair race" and pledged to work with the South Dakota Senator to unite the party. The Republicans, for their part, hoped this battle within the Democratic Party would last longer to benefit their own ticket. Nevertheless, McGovern may have done a great service to his party by leaving the race: Muskie has now roughly six months to close the gap in the polls, in which he is trailing President Rockefeller by double digits. The president himself, however, shouldn?t take the challenge too easy despite the fact that he is favored to win reelection.


On April 29, the Rockefeller White House released a brief statement:


OFFICIAL STATEMENT BY PRESIDENT NELSON A. ROCKEFELLER

President Nelson A. Rockefeller congretulates Senator Edmund S. Muskie of Maine for his victory in the Democratic presidential primaries and his pending selection as the opposing party's nominee for the highest office in the land. The president looks forward to debate the issues confronting the United States with Senator Muskie in the months to come so that the American public can make a fair judgement whether it wants to continue the current direction under the Rockefeller/Ford Administration or whether the voters determine there needs to be a change. The president and the vice president look forward to open and honest discussions on these critical matters in the time ahead.


April 30, 1976: A whole bunch of new Gallup polls

Edmund Muskie gets a bump in polling numbers after de facto securing the Democratic nomination. He still trails the president, who has a stable approval rating, but has begun the close the map. However, as election day is still six months away, a lot can change in either direction.


President Rockefeller job approval
Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 39%


1976 general election match-up

Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 51%
Edmund Muskie (D): 45%


1976 generic congressional ballot

Democrats: 46%
Republicans: 43%


Questions

Q: Do you approve or disapprove President Rockefeller's foreign policy in general?
Approve: 68%
Disapprove: 24%
Undecided: 8%

Q: Do you approve or disapprove President Rockefeller's economic policy?
Approve: 48%
Disapprove: 42%
Undecided: 10%

Q: Do you approve or disapprove Vice President Ford's performance in office?
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 34%
Undecided: 12%

Q: Do you approve or disapprove Secretary of State Nixon's performance in office?
Approve: 60%
Disapprove: 27%
Undecided: 13%

Q: Do you approve or disapprove Secretary of Defense Romney's performance in office?
Approve: 63%
Disapprove: 25%
Undecided: 12%

Q: Do you approve or disapprove Attorney General Brooke's performance in office?
Approve: 44%
Disapprove: 21%
Undecided: 35%

Q: Do you approve or disapprove the work of congress?
Approve: 42%
Disapprove: 43%
Undecided: 15%

Starting in May, we're going to have state by state polls for the general election.

[President Johnson]

Here's my Rockefeller vs McGovern prediction:

It turned out differently now But I think Rocky would carry the state of Massachusetts, since he is a very good fit for New England. Even Reagan won the state in 1984 (and 1980, but only because of John Anderson).

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here's my Rockefeller vs McGovern prediction:

It turned out differently now But I think Rocky would carry the state of Massachusetts, since he is a very good fit for New England. Even Reagan won the state in 1984 (and 1980, but only because of John Anderson).

MA though moved hard right(Relatively for the state not compared to the Nation Overall) in the 1980s


Here is a good thread about the state's shift: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=298173.0

[President Johnson]

The road towards the nominating conventions



Senator Edmund Muskie loses no time on the campaign trail

After George McGovern’s exit of the presidential campaign left Ed Muskie was the sole contender for the Democratic nomination, the remaining primaries to be held were pretty uneventful. Muskie won all contests with at least 80% of the vote and already shifted his attention towards the general election. The presumptive nominee hired new staffers, opened campaign offices and begun touring battleground states such as Ohio and Texas. A decent number of campaign staffers and operators from the Bentsen and McGovern campaigns accepted Muskie’s offer to work for him. “Until the nominating convention opens, we’re focused on closing the ranks so that Democrats can go into the fall as a united force for progress at home and peace abroad”, a spokeswoman for the Muskie campaign told journalists. Throughout the month of May, all major Democratic leaders formally endorsed Edmund Muskie for president, including Governor Bobby Kennedy of New York, who had been the party’s nominee in 1972. Kennedy had been remarkably quiet on the race since he moved into the Governor’s Mansion, what was not well received in some Democratic circles. He only campaigned for some down-ballot candidates and his lieutenant governor Mario Cuomo, who won the nomination for senate.

When it comes to vice presidential choices, the Muskie campaign remained cautious. “The matter will be addressed at the appropriate time”, Muskie said in a television interview. Several names were floated, including all former contenders. Senator Albert Brewer (D-AL) emphasized the need for a southerner on the ticket but ruled out to be a candidate himself. He recommended Florida Governor Reubin Askew or Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX) as “strong choices”.


Richard Nixon in hot water for campaign related speech



Did Secretary of State Richard Nixon go too far?

Although George McGovern’s criticism of Secretary of State Richard Nixon during a senate hearing for attacking him at a Republican fundraiser went nowhere in public, some Democrats saw this as an opportunity for political gain against the Rockefeller Administration. Although Nixon, whose nomination for the job was extremely controversial given his past political activities including two failed White House bids, he earned credentials nationally and internationally as America’s chief diplomat in the past three years. Even more liberal commentators in the press praised his performance in office. Democratic senators, including Majority Whip Robert Byrd (D-WV) and Ted Kennedy (D-MA), demanded a senate investigation whether the secretary violated the Hatch Act; a federal law that prohibits federal employees of the executive branch from partisan activities. Only the president and the vice president are excluded from this rule. Other members of the Democratic Caucus such Fritz Hollings (D-SC) were more cautious and warned such a maneuver might be seen as a campaign stunt and backfire. Senate Majority Leader Hubert Humphrey (D-MN), who had the power to start such an investigation process, said he wanted to take a closer look at the issue. If Humphrey decided to investigate the matter and demanded Nixon to testify before the senate in public, it may produce bad headlines for the Rockefeller Administration over the summer and potentially even the fall. A spokesman for the State Department issued a statement on May 23: “Secretary Nixon has not violated any federal law. He defended the administration’s foreign policy, in which he plays a key role, and mentioned the poor attendance record of a senator who was critical of the administration.” Nixon himself, mostly absent from Washington throughout May, declined to comment in public, but an aide of his told the press he sees the allegations as a “witch hunt” and a “campaign stunt by a failed candidate”. Meanwhile, the White House publicly supported the State Department’s interpretation and made it known that President Rockefeller has “full confidence” in Secretary Nixon.


May 31, 1976: New Gallup polls

Since the beginning of the year, President Rockefeller's approval rating has been remarkably stable over 50%. Due to good economic numbers in May, his lead over Edmund Muskie in the general election widened to an eleven points advantage. And anyone who is down by this much, is headed for a massive defeat. The state by state polls, that were undertaken for almost all states, show an uphill battle for Muskie to climb, as he trails in almost all key battlegrounds. Five months before the voters are going to the polls, Nelson Rockefeller has a commanding lead in the electoral count. The good news for Muskie is that he has still almost a half year to convince the American public he is the better leader than the incumbent. What is concering for him, though, is that his leads in the states he is currently ahead are mostly small. In a worst case scenario for Muskie, Rocky could win in such a blowout that exceeds the current map.

The generic ballot for congress shows a tie at this point. In this scenario, the Republicans would at least undo their losses in the 1974 midterm elections.

President Rockefeller job approval
Approve: 54%
Disapprove: 40%


1976 general election match-up
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 53%
Edmund Muskie (D): 42%


1976 generic congressional ballot
Democrats: 44%
Republicans: 44%

1976 general election by state

Alabama
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 47%
Edmund Muskie (D): 44%

Alaska
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 54%
Edmund Muskie (D): 41%

Arizona
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 55%
Edmund Muskie (D): 39%

Arkansas
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 48%
Edmund Muskie (D): 42%

California
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 52%
Edmund Muskie (D): 43%

Colorado
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 57%
Edmund Muskie (D): 35%

Connecticut
Edmund Muskie (D): 45%
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 44%

Delaware
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 45%
Edmund Muskie (D): 45%

Florida
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 54%
Edmund Muskie (D): 41%

Georgia
Edmund Muskie (D): 45%
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 40%

Hwaii
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 49%
Edmund Muskie (D): 45%

Illinois
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 49%
Edmund Muskie (D): 43%

Indiana
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 50%
Edmund Muskie (D): 41%

Iowa
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 46%
Edmund Muskie (D): 46%

Kentucky
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 48%
Edmund Muskie (D): 44%

Louisiana
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 46%
Edmund Muskie (D): 39%

Maine
Edmund Muskie (D): 49%
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 44%

Maryland
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 49%
Edmund Muskie (D): 43%

Massachusetts
Edmund Muskie (D): 47%
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 44%

Michigan
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 53%
Edmund Muskie (D): 44%

Minnesota
Edmund Muskie (D): 51%
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 42%

Missisippi
Edmund Muskie (D): 43%
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 42%

Missouri
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 51%
Edmund Muskie (D): 43%

Nevada
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 55%
Edmund Muskie (D): 38%

New Hampshire
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 58%
Edmund Muskie (D): 34%

New Jersey
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 52%
Edmund Muskie (D): 43%

New Mexico
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 50%
Edmund Muskie (D): 42%

New York
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 51%
Edmund Muskie (D): 43%

North Carolina
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 46%
Edmund Muskie (D): 44%

Ohio
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 54%
Edmund Muskie (D): 41%

Oklahoma
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 52%
Edmund Muskie (D): 43%

Oregon
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 50%
Edmund Muskie (D): 41%

Pennsylvania
Edmund Muskie (D): 48%
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 47%

Rhode Island
Edmund Muskie (D): 49%
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 44%

South Carolina
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 48%
Edmund Muskie (D): 40%

Tennessee
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 49%
Edmund Muskie (D): 42%

Texas
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 48%
Edmund Muskie (D): 43%

Vermont
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 54%
Edmund Muskie (D): 39%

Virginia
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 50%
Edmund Muskie (D): 42%

Washington
Edmund Muskie (D): 47%
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 45%

West Virginia
Edmund Muskie (D): 50%
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 45%

Wisconsin
Edmund Muskie (D): 46%
Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 45%


The current state-by-state polling map:

(✓) Nelson Rockefeller (R, inc.): 412 EV.
Edmund Muskie (D): 115 EV.
Tied: 11 EV.

Light blue/red = lead less than 5%
Standard blue/red = lead between 5% and 10%
Dark blue/red = Lead over 10%
Gray = Tied

[Cold War Liberal]

MUSKIE/ASKEW '76

[President Johnson]

MUSKIE/ASKEW '76

The next update will consist a detailed shortlist of Muskie's running mates Similar to the one on page 6.