Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[izixs]

Sanders is ahead in Wayne county... with 2 of 999 precincts in so far. Still anyone's game.

[izixs]

One of the interesting things with Michigan so far is that Sanders is doing well across the state. If Wayne ends up tilting heavily for Clinton (which it isn't yet, but still too early to say), will it be enough to over come any advantage she could build there? I don't know enough about Michigan to have a good answer there.

[izixs]

Extrapolating from the CNN exit poll its looking like 52-47 Sanders. Still, those numbers are at best a guess at this point, but still looks good for Sanders.

[izixs]

I ran some numbers a bit ago that if the margin in the rest of the state remained constant, for Clinton to win, she'd need to get ~63% in the remaining Wayne county vote to pull out a win. It could happen, but I'm not fully convinced yet.

[izixs]

Clinton would need to win around 53% of the remaining vote I estimate to get a win. Yes driving up numbers in Wayne could help that, but I'm doubtful that will be enough to offset Sanders doing generally well in the rest of the state consistently.

[izixs]

In other news, even though comparing to 08 is a little problematic to compare to, the dems are up a couple hundred thousand votes in total.

[izixs]

Clinton would need to win the remaining vote by about 56% to get a lead at this point. Its pretty much over as that number keeps climbing.

[izixs]

New vote dump from Wayne so new estimates on needed Clinton support. I calculate she needs 55% to pull ahed. Better than earlier, but they are running out of terrain.

[izixs]

New numbers suggest that Clinton now needs 60%+ to pull out a win. So yes, the calls starting up make sense.

[izixs]

Hillary still nets more delegates from today, right? I still feel confident about Illinois and Florida to finish this off.

Yeah, they both get 63 from Michigan and she gets 31 in Mississippi and he got 2 in Mississippi.

Not quite, the math in Michigan is rather complicated due to the delegates being split both state wide (28+17 PLEOs) and by districts.