UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[CumbrianLefty]

Actually, has Johnson said anything yet?

[TheTide]

Johnson has said eff all so far. He's not known to be backward at coming forward, so is this significant?

[TheTide]

Actually, has Johnson said anything yet?

Bear me to it.

[brucejoel99]

BoJo allies on TV are saying that his critics should now accept the result & support him as leader through the next election. Meanwhile, Sir Roger Chad Gale just said on Sky that he'll gladly keep opposing BoJo's position as Tory leader & PM. Based.

[Cassius]

The party should just disband itself. Frankly embarrassing.

[TheTide]

Johnson has been rumoured for a while to want to get out for health and financial reasons. Could he use this as an excuse?

[Angel of Death]

After all that has happened, does anyone seriously believe Boris Johnson will ever leave voluntarily?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Here in the United States, when an incumbent only gets 58% in their primary, that's a sign of huge danger for the general election.

Those Lichtman Keys start with 1860 because Buchanan winning in 1856 kind of destroys his model.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298?s=20&t=6m_Ni7...

[brucejoel99]

After all that has happened, does anyone seriously believe Boris Johnson will ever leave voluntarily?

I wonder, if Tiverton puts another nail in BoJo's coffin, will the 1922 move to just waive the 1-year waiting period? I mean, I just can't see them sitting on their hands for a year. Politically speaking, they're otherwise f**king insane if they think that letting him limp through forcing them to suffer catastrophic by-election defeats, an embarrassing Privileges Committee inquiry that makes the Sue Gray report look like a children's book, etc., is a good idea for their future electoral prospects.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is there any chance for Boris to turn the tide and improve his situation, going forward? Can things possibly go north for him, not south?

[Oryxslayer]

Is there any chance for Boris to turn the tide and improve his situation, going forward? Can things possibly go north for him, not south?

Theoretically, yes. Realistically, the things to do so are out of his hands and more likely to go against him. For example: cabinet dissent, and losing both by-elections.

[TheTide]

Boris on now. Bravado and general crap, probably not helping himself.

[LAB-LIB]

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298?s=20&t=6m_Ni7...

So who goes first?

[brucejoel99]

Is there any chance for Boris to turn the tide and improve his situation, going forward? Can things possibly go north for him, not south?

Theoretically, yes. Realistically, the things to do so are out of his hands and more likely to go against him. For example: cabinet dissent, and losing both by-elections.

There's also a not-insignificant downside to a reshuffle with MPs from the 2019 intake: the vast majority of them are idiots.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298

So who goes first?

I'll guess Truss just so that BoJo's leadership comes around full-circle with a Foreign Sec.'s resignation in protest of the PM.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298?s=20&t=6m_Ni70u4Ybt8a1UnxNU7Q

So who goes first?

We don’t know - that’s the fun part. If there was an obvious candidate they’d have denied it or publicly joined the rebels, and already resigned.

Some of today’s new rebels, including John Lamont (who resigned from the government this evening) had made cautious criticisms of the Government earlier this week - which often translates into louder actions, and resignations later. But a lot of people have done that, so we’d have to pour through websites and twitter feeds of dozens of MPs.I only know about Lamont’s earlier criticism because I have a personal link to his constituency, and so keep an eye out for news there.

The only thought I have, is that the Solicitor General, Alex Chalk, was repeatedly rumoured to be considering resigning during the early days of partygate, but decided against it after Ukraine got bad.

[Torrain]

The knives are out - Hague has just released a pre-written column calling for Johnson to go.
https://mobile.twitter.com/thetimes/status/1533920750473732096

It’s pretty harsh stuff:

The nature of their revolt has an important bearing on what happens next. They are not a faction that has been seen off, or an alternative policy direction that has been defeated. They represent instead a widespread feeling, a collapse of faith, that almost certainly cannot be repaired or reversed. For Johnson, continuing to lead the party after such a revolt will prove to be unsustainable.

[Joe Republic]

To put it yet another way, next time he stands up at PMQs, he'll know that slightly less than a third of the people in the room think he should be the Prime Minister.

[Blair]

Logic would suggest they go for 6 months- allows doe another vote after the privileges report comes out and after Conference.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298?s=20&t=6m_Ni7...

This somehow makes sense- the 12 month wait basically means that resignations are the only way you can try and remove the PM. It’s why Theresa May saw a number in the last 7 months of her terms- people will suddenly find things to resign over.

Labour has a long history of trying to trigger leadership elections outside of the actual rules…

Likely to be Freeman or Mordant if I has to guess…

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298

This somehow makes sense- the 12 month wait basically means that resignations are the only way you can try and remove the PM. It’s why Theresa May saw a number in the last 7 months of her terms- people will suddenly find things to resign over.

I'm just curious why these government resignations aren't expected 'til tomorrow. You'd think that it'd make more sense to resign immediately & make the morning shows in order to put even more pressure on BoJo than has already been applied.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298

This somehow makes sense- the 12 month wait basically means that resignations are the only way you can try and remove the PM. It’s why Theresa May saw a number in the last 7 months of her terms- people will suddenly find things to resign over.

I'm just curious why these government resignations aren't expected 'til tomorrow. You'd think that it'd make more sense to resign immediately & make the morning shows in order to put even more pressure on BoJo than has already been applied.

David Davis resigned at some ridiculous time (well after midnight) over the May deal.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1533909268860215298

This somehow makes sense- the 12 month wait basically means that resignations are the only way you can try and remove the PM. It’s why Theresa May saw a number in the last 7 months of her terms- people will suddenly find things to resign over.

I'm just curious why these government resignations aren't expected 'til tomorrow. You'd think that it'd make more sense to resign immediately & make the morning shows in order to put even more pressure on BoJo than has already been applied.

David Davis resigned at some ridiculous time (well after midnight) over the May deal.

Iirc he did that to outflank BoJo as they were playing a game of chicken over whether to stick with May or resign.

[Torrain]

Front pages of tomorrow’s papers are a real mix. The Telegraph declares a Tory civil war, the left-wing papers lament Johnson’s survival, and the Mail & Express live on an alternate planet where the PM is a noble man, fighting on against an unjust system. 
https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/

Not sure this bodes well for his chances:

[CumbrianLefty]

Likely to be Freeman or Mordant if I has to guess…

It says "government" rather than cabinet - that may (or may not) be deliberate.

[JimJamUK]

My unpopular take is that this isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the Conservatives. Boris can limp on but he is damaged. A few more months of cost of living, poor polling and by-election defeats can lead to 30 MPs switching sides and getting rid of him. If I was wanting to be the next Conservative leader I would want him to last a while longer so he absorbs a lot of the public hate and then the new leader can take over as the economy gets better (or stays bad, which at worst makes no difference from getting rid of him now). A new leader in 2023 would then give them a bit of time to define themselves and move on from Boris. The counter argument is that the longer Boris stays the more damage he does to the Conservative brand (just look at how long the damage from Blair, Brown, Miliband and Corbyn’s leadership lasted in some form or other), and his ability to make poor decisions will damage whoever succeeds him.