KS-Civiqs/Daily Kos: Trump +10
Co-Chair Bagel23:
Quote from: EastOfEden on September 30, 2020, 09:12:46 PM
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 30, 2020, 05:54:33 PM
I never really got the idea that bollier would outrun Biden bigly. Maybe a little bit, but not really that much.
No, she will. The only question is if it will be by enough to win. I'm still estimating ~10 points, so it all depends on Biden's margin. Probably ranges from Bollier +2 to Marshall +5.
Hard disagree. This +10 Trump +7 Marshall thing makes perfect sense to me. Almost all the polls that had Bollier doing better margin wise than Trump had her doing similarly to Biden % wise, but Marshall lagging Trump. Undecideds are breaking to Marshall.
Co-Chair Bagel23:
Quote from: EastOfEden on September 30, 2020, 09:12:46 PM
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 30, 2020, 05:54:33 PM
I never really got the idea that bollier would outrun Biden bigly. Maybe a little bit, but not really that much.
No, she will. The only question is if it will be by enough to win. I'm still estimating ~10 points, so it all depends on Biden's margin. Probably ranges from Bollier +2 to Marshall +5.
Roses are red, violets are blue, I may not be good, but I'm better than you
Hope For A New Era:
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on December 13, 2020, 05:45:40 PM
Quote from: EastOfEden on September 30, 2020, 09:12:46 PM
Quote from: Co-Chair Bagel23 on September 30, 2020, 05:54:33 PM
I never really got the idea that bollier would outrun Biden bigly. Maybe a little bit, but not really that much.
No, she will. The only question is if it will be by enough to win. I'm still estimating ~10 points, so it all depends on Biden's margin. Probably ranges from Bollier +2 to Marshall +5.
Roses are red, violets are blue, I may not be good, but I'm better than you
Accolades granted!
I was right about what the winning coalition for her would be, though. That's some impressive margin-cutting in the rurals. Not many Democrats managed that this year. It's clear she was a very strong candidate. It was polarization that killed her in the end.
I have to wonder if she could have won in 2018, if there had been a Senate race in KS that year. No Trump on the ballot + Kelly coattails. It would have been very close.
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