VA-GOV 2017: It's a Wave (GE: Nov 7th - Thread #2)

[Crumpets]

Leaked results from Caroline County:

Northam - 1,167
Gillespie - 1,284
Hyra - 193
Jeb! (Write-in) - 28,364

[Crumpets]

Democrats really need to improve their efforts on the whole Chad pre-election declaration of victory instead of the virgin election prognostication. Observe:

Northam will win by 20. Anything less would be because the NRA bussed in voters from West Virginia and Tennessee. Let's hope it didn't come to that.

[Crumpets]

EXITS

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/local/virginia-politics/governor-exit-polls/?utm_term=.20b245224bad

Just skimming, it looks pretty much in line with the polling averages so far - 1 to 5 point win for Northam.

[Crumpets]

Fun fact: 10 Republican-held House of Delegates seats went uncontested this year. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Crumpets]

I was misreading the New York Times results page and in the last minute went from "How the heck do people see the Democrats winning the HoD?" to "Holy schlamoli! The Democrats might actually be on track to win the HoD!"

[Crumpets]

Are the next set of district lines going to be enacted before the next gubernatorial election in 2021, or will the next governor get to oversee that?

[Crumpets]

DAVID WASSERMAN 11:33 PM
One final note: It’s hard not to conclude the August events in Charlottesville had a galvanizing effect on Democrats in that area. Across the state, raw votes cast were up 16 percent over 2013. But in the city of Charlottesville, raw votes cast were up 31 percent. Northam took 84 percent of the vote there.

The only thing that stops a bad guy with a car is millions of good guys with a ballot.

[Crumpets]

One map I'd certainly be curious to see is the 2014-2017 swing map, since Gillespie is a constant factor. Maybe if I have some time tomorrow, I'll make it.