UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[ag]

Sorry if I'm posting this in the wrong place, but it seems like the bottom might be falling out for Labour, at least for the 2020 election:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-mays-tories-open-up-18-point-lead-over-jeremy-corbyns-labour-a7370246.html

Labour's share of the vote is actually about the same as it got in 2015 - the large Tory lead is mostly due to many UKIP voters switching to the Tories (which would of course lead to seat losses for Labour anyway).  

Depends what polls you look at; today's Yougov has Labour at 26% which is a fair bit lower than the 30% they got in 2015: down near 1983 levels.  That's probably Labour's realistic floor though; and with UKIP falling apart the risk to losing northern seats might be diminishing a bit.  Not at all good though...

With UKIP "falling apart", in fact, the only thing that would separate Labour from humiliation with such results would be a LibDem resurgence.

[ag]

Great news!

LibDems will recover. Hopefully, they again hold the balance in the next Parliament.

I mean, can't a few Remain Tories just resign/switch to independent to deny her the majority? i know, she still has the Unionists, but, for god's sake, make her life uncomfortable!

[ag]

Good for LibDems. To the extent that Labour loses (small "l") liberal voters to them even in this, completely non-strategic enviromnemnt, we may also see some interesting action in seats where LD will be actually competing with Labour head-on.

[ag]

Ken Clarke should bolt to LibDems. He has no place left for him in his old party.

[ag]

Labor could become the new whigs with slavery, had 2 voter factions of considerable clout & couldn't take a decision with Libs n Green taking 1 part n Tories n UKIP taking the other.

This fence sitting is only gonna hurt them. Corbyn has to do a better job articulating it. The focus should be on young voters.

Well, if it is up to Corbyn doing a better job, I fully expect Mr. Farron to be the opposition leader after the next election.

[ag]

The sad part is that he's become very unpopular without being hated. I think people just see him as pathetic.

"Despised" is an uncomfortable place for a politician to be in. But, alas, despised, but not hated, leaders are not easy to get rid of - especially in the absence of a clear alternative.