Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Kim up by a thread

Congressman Gil Cisneros.

Wow, and it was even OC that did that, not LA. Still a lot of votes waiting to be reported for CA-39 from LA. So this should be a very easy Cisneros win from here.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Anyone have any insight into TX-23? How many absentees are left? Ortiz-Jones attended new member orientation.

Provisional ballots are being counted, but a judge denied more time to count them and a deadline is coming up.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This guy from the Salt lake Tribune still thinks McAdams is on course to (maybe) win UT-04 (albeit very narrowly, and it is pretty much tied):

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1062867660445306882



Dave Wasserman thinks that is implausible, because turnout is then substantially higher in Salt Lake County than in Utah County:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1062883618937139200

The point that 100% of 2016 is different from 80% is true... And if we were comparing to an election that was a longer time ago, the population growth point would be a good point... but I don't think the population growth point is actually SUCH a great point here, because it has only been 2 years since 2016. The growth is not going to be THAT disproportionate in just a span of 2 years. And Salt Lake County is also growing (10.3% since 2010).

So could it just be that turnout in Utah County is in fact substantially lower than in Salt Lake County? That could (maybe) be the case if there are a lot of Mormons who normally vote R who are ... less... fired up than other base Republicans about voting in the era of Trump. Mormons are much more pro-immigration, so they may have been disgusted by Trump's caravan antics. While that may have driven up turnout among other GOP base voters, it may not have worked so well in turning out Mormons.

If so, then what are you left with in UT-04? A Dem base that is super-charged to vote, and an R base that is not so much. If that is the case, you would maybe expect substantially higher turnout in Salt Lake County.

I would think the guy from the Salt Lake Trib would have checked the #s he is posting with local election officials, so perhaps the turnout really is just that different.

The good news here would be that if that is so, then McAdams can still win (maybe).

The bad news is that means he will be more likely to lose in 2020, when the turnout may not be so uneven. On the other hand though, in 2020 Trump will be on the ballot and Romney will not, so that may help McAdams.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The guy from Salt Lake Trib says his #s are definitely actual #s reported by county clerks, so Wasserman is overstating Mia Love's chances.

https://twitter.com/RobertGehrke/status/1062914856289034240

Basically right now UT-04 depends on how the outstanding ballots break. If they break with the same proportions as the most recently counted votes, then Love will probably win narrowly. But if they break with the same proportions as all votes overall (including ones that were counted on election night), then McAdams wins narrowly.

This depends partly on if there is any difference between provisionals and late-arriving mail ballots. If the provisionals are more pro-Dem, then McAdams' chances should go up substantially.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Aha.

There were apparently problems with voting machines and long lines in Utah County, in particular in Eagle Mountain, which is part of Utah County that is in UT-04.

https://fox13now.com/2018/11/07/what-caused-the-long-lines-to-vote-in-utah-county/

So that may have discouraged some voters from voting and may also partly explain why there was apparently lower turnout in Utah County than Salt Lake County.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So with Poliguin down, that puts called dem seats at 229 - 34 flips by my count. Including leaning seats (CA39, CA45, NY22, NM02, UT04) dems now at 234 - 39 flips. Maybe its just me, but I really want to see another flip to make this 235 and 40.

It looks like there is a good chance that CA-21 might actually come through now.

UT-04 is a question mark though.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

As thrilled as I am that Golden won, the fact he only won by 1% against one of the weakest R incumbents makes me think this has “one-term rental” written all over it. Hence he should just go for Senate and hope to strike...gold

Golden should be fine for 2020 considering that no Dem House incumbents lost re-election.

No Dem House incumbents lost re-election in a D+8 or more environment that is. He would have just as high a chance at the Senate seat (which is infinitely more valuable) than he would at re-election, assuming the GOP runs a competent challenger. We're incredibly polarized now.

Yeah, I think you may be right.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

BOOM CISNEROS

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Meanwhile in CA-21, a small # of additional votes came in from Kings. These are at about 2016 Presidential levels, so that is not *bad* for Cox per se, but the previous batch from Kings was better. Cox just needs some of those juicy provisionals from Kern that Tintrlvr keeps telling us about... Hopefully they are coming.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So much for Titanium Unbeatable Young Kim.

Next up, unbeatable titan David Valadao.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

AP calls it for Porter!

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1063243908346535936

So you are saying that she won't be the NRCC chair?

Does the NRCC chair have to be an actual member of Congress? Maybe she can be NRCC chair anyway and she can give all the recruits advice about how to campaign in a competitive election.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Both Kims failed. Pearl Kim and Young Kim.

andy kim

Yeah, only Republican Kims fail. Democratic Kims succeed. let that be a lesson to all the Kims out there.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Imagine someone telling you 3 years ago that Elizabeth Warren's protege would defeat an incumbent Republican in Orange County, CA in a district Romney won by double digits.

Through Trump, all things are possible.

None of the professional pundits ever seem to talk about it, but it's interesting how a demographic can be pushed towards a political party for one reason (in this case, SoCal Republicans because Trump angst), but then pick up the rest of that political party's ideology in a flash.

Similarly, I doubt a majority of West Virginians looked kindly on tax cuts for billionaires before Rove/Trump won them over with culture war issues.

It is because most voters don't really have firm positions on issues. The idea that issues matter to voters or that voters vote based upon policy matters is one of the greatest common misconceptions in politics.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

lol:

I love the emoji for Crenshaw.

Someone has to provide the diversity for the GOP.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Wow, Bordeaux apparently won a precinct in Forsyth County. That is Forsyth County, Georgia (GA-07).

https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1063491967957590017

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Harris county is Houston. Democrats really need to make an effort to take the Texas House in 2020 (another reason to contest the state). Without gerrymandering they would have a lot more seats. If you ask me O'Rourke should moderate his stance on an AR-15 ban, and other hot-button issues, and challenge Cornyn.

Yep, there are enough TX state house seats within reach from the Beto numbers that if Dems can repeat Beto's performance in 2020 (much less improve on it), the TX State House could flip.

And if it does, that means a lot of additional Congressional seats from a court drawn redistricting map, as opposed to another Republican gerrymander. And if Dems do take the State House and get neutral State House maps, they stand a good chance of keeping control of the TX State House over the course of the 2020s, because of the increasing "self-packing" of Rs in rural areas and smaller towns/cities and the increasing diversification of the suburbs.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Another (smallish) Fresno dump for Cox. But it seems like a good result, overperforming Clinton a bit. We still need more Kern to see if he can get over the top...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I know two people from Forsyth County, and they were absolute delights. I've never understood how the county has such a backwards history.

Yep, my opinion of Forsyth County has gone up knowing that Georgia Moderate lives there. That means there must be something not all bad there.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Love leads by only 400 with 18 SL precincts out to only 3 in Utah? Will probably be close then, right?

It depends on which SL precincts (and do we really know that it is precincts? I would think if it were provisionals and maybe a few late mail ballots they would gather them together from all over, not keep them separated by precinct this late).

NOVA Green did say earlier that a good chunk of the precincts left were from South Jordan, which is one of the more GOP parts of the district in Salt Lake County. If so then what is left probably will go to Love, unfortunately.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

CA-25 is turning into a real ass-kicking for Knight. This seat will probably stay in Dem hands for a long time.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

A small # of additional votes from Kings County in CA-21:



This one is closer to the Hillary numbers, with Valadao over-performing them only very slightly.

We have not gotten any updates from Kern in a long time (the most Dem part of CA-21), so when they do report we might get a big dump. If the next Kern dump is big, Cox needs it to be good, and for it to either put him outright in the lead or at least close to it.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

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incorrect



R+12

But even if you do that, the other district that does contain SLC will presumably go north into Davis County and will end up about R+5 or so. That will be the case unless SLC is split into even more pieces, which any nonpartisan map wouldn't really do...

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

nope. then you put actually SLC in with UBER republican rurals and end up with a R+19 district or so.

You would it if were an R gerrymander, but I don't see how a commission would do that. To get to the R rural areas you would have to either cross Salt Lake or cross mountains to the east to get to the rurals. That is not a very natural way for the district to go. If you do have that district you drew in south SL County, then it is much more natural to combine SL City with Davis County, which is not rural and is just to the north (and is also less R than the rurals). And with population growth, it would probably end up going substantially less far north than here, which makes it less R.

I would say that something like this with the blue district R+6 is the worst case realistic scenario for Dems from a non-partisan commission, and if someone like McAdams could win the red district it could even be a dummymander from the R perspective:

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

nope. then you put actually SLC in with UBER republican rurals and end up with a R+19 district or so.

You would it if were an R gerrymander, but I don't see how a commission would do that. To get to the R rural areas you would have to either cross Salt Lake or cross mountains to the east to get to the rurals. That is not a very natural way for the district to go. If you do have that district you drew in south SL County, then it is much more natural to combine SL City with Davis County, which is not rural and is just to the north (and is also less R than the rurals). And with population growth, it would probably end up going substantially less far north than here, which makes it less R.

I would say that something like this with the blue district R+6 is the worst case realistic scenario for Dems from a non-partisan commission, and if someone like McAdams could win the red district it could even be a dummymander from the R perspective:

I was under the impression that this was a very loose redistricting bill, and just set up loose rules

https://ballotpedia.org/Utah_Proposition_4,_Independent_Redistricting_Commission_Initiative_(2018)

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I would think this should mean that Salt Lake City is not split and there should be 1 district within Salt Lake County. It should make it hard to have a SLC + rural district because that would not be particularly compact, would not allow for ease of transport (you either have to cross mountains or the Great Salt Lake), and it wouldn't follow natural and geographic boundaries/barriers. The only way to really follow natural boundaries from Salt Lake City is either to north into Davis County or South into the rest of Salt Lake County.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

are you sure they can't just pull a Florida... I am sure courts would side them?

A difference is that in FL it is the legislature that draws the districts, and they (supposedly) comply with the standards.

Whereas in this case it is not the legislature drawing the districts.