Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[Gass3268]

Surprised it was that close, so how many indies voted for Poliquin then?

Sounds like it was close to a 60-40 split.

Do we even know the first round results? It seems that they stopped at 95% of precincts.

Results summary, released by ME SOS:

[Nyvin]

So that exit poll of 90ish% of indies going to Golden was BS.

About 44% chose Golden,  20% chose Poliquin, the rest apparently didn't chose anyone...?

[Tintrlvr]

Katie Hobbs’ lead at 5918. Not sure what county updated but it doesn’t look like Pima or Maricopa

Apache

Also Cox added 180 votes in the Tulare County provisionals:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1063103638732591104

Yup. This doesn't make much a difference on its own as Tulare County is just a tiny portion of the district, but, as I predicted, provisionals are going to be really ugly for Valadao. Cox could hit 80% in the Kern County provisionals, e.g., and, especially given that Tulare result, should be ahead in the Kings County provisionals, too. Mostly comes down to whether Valadao can build up a bit of a buffer in the remaining Kings County VBMs; right now, if only provisionals were counted, I think Cox wins.

[Badger]

Katie Hobbs’ lead at 5918. Not sure what county updated but it doesn’t look like Pima or Maricopa

Apache

Also Cox added 180 votes in the Tulare County provisionals:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1063103638732591104

Yup. This doesn't make much a difference on its own as Tulare County is just a tiny portion of the district, but, as I predicted, provisionals are going to be really ugly for Valadao. Cox could hit 80% in the Kern County provisionals, e.g., and, especially given that Tulare result, should be ahead in the Kings County provisionals, too. Mostly comes down to whether Valadao can build up a bit of a buffer in the remaining Kings County VBMs; right now, if only provisionals were counted, I think Cox wins.

But have Kern's counties vbms been counted either?

Also, can I just save that I realize this is totally greedy of me, but with the utter decimation of the California Republican Congressional Delegation, is it wrong that it's still bugs me Devin Nunes is one of those survivors (for now)?

[Tintrlvr]

So that exit poll of 90ish% of indies going to Golden was BS.

About 44% chose Golden,  20% chose Poliquin, the rest apparently didn't chose anyone...?

Seems to be the case. About 0.5% were overvotes (ranked two choices the same, e.g.), about 1.5% were exhausted before reaching the top two (e.g., a first-preference Hoar voter who ranked Bond #2 and failed to rank either Golden or Poliquin) and the remaining 33% were undervotes (failed to indicate any second or later choice, only a first choice). Undervotes are always a problem when introducing IRV/RCV election systems, and I'm surely especially in a context like this one where this was the only IRV/RCV election on a ballot where all of the other elections were FPTP.

[Oryxslayer]

So with Poliguin down, that puts called dem seats at 229 - 34 flips by my count. Including leaning seats (CA39, CA45, NY22, NM02, UT04) dems now at 234 - 39 flips. Maybe its just me, but I really want to see another flip to make this 235 and 40.

[Badger]

As thrilled as I am that Golden won, the fact he only won by 1% against one of the weakest R incumbents makes me think this has “one-term rental” written all over it. Hence he should just go for Senate and hope to strike...gold

Nah. He beat an incumbent whom, IMHO, wasn't all that flawed. This is a district Obama won handily in 2008, and by a reasonable margin in 2012. Yes the district trended heavily for Trump, and was the reason LePage got reelected, let's call this a rental is way early and over-exaggerated.

I suspect boring a scandal or wave election, golden has a long career in this District, though I admittedly wouldn't bet the farm on it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Surprised it was that close, so how many indies voted for Poliquin then?

Based on that spreadsheet, it looks like:
- Golden: 44.46%
- Poliquin: 20.4%
- Exhausted: 35.14%

So yeah, the exit poll was off, but that's what you get with small subsamples.

Sad that Golden didn't win an absolute majority of votes cast, though.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Golden should run against Collins

[Tintrlvr]

Katie Hobbs’ lead at 5918. Not sure what county updated but it doesn’t look like Pima or Maricopa

Apache

Also Cox added 180 votes in the Tulare County provisionals:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1063103638732591104

Yup. This doesn't make much a difference on its own as Tulare County is just a tiny portion of the district, but, as I predicted, provisionals are going to be really ugly for Valadao. Cox could hit 80% in the Kern County provisionals, e.g., and, especially given that Tulare result, should be ahead in the Kings County provisionals, too. Mostly comes down to whether Valadao can build up a bit of a buffer in the remaining Kings County VBMs; right now, if only provisionals were counted, I think Cox wins.

But have Kern's counties vbms been counted either?

Also, can I just save that I realize this is totally greedy of me, but with the utter decimation of the California Republican Congressional Delegation, is it wrong that it's still bugs me Devin Nunes is one of those survivors (for now)?

Kern only has a few VBMs left (3,885 county-wide but only around 35% will be in CA-21) but a lot of provisionals (16,342 county-wide). Kings by contrast has significantly more VBMs (3,162, all in CA-21) than provisionals (1,354) left.

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2018-general/unprocessed-ballots-report.pdf?_ga=2.248679044.2001522264.1542155537-1293758651.1542155537

The difference for Nunes is that his district is still solidly a Trump district. I believe all of the Republicans who lost in California are in Clinton districts.

[wbrocks67]

If Cox wins CA-21, that'd just be the icing on the cake

[Badger]

As thrilled as I am that Golden won, the fact he only won by 1% against one of the weakest R incumbents makes me think this has “one-term rental” written all over it. Hence he should just go for Senate and hope to strike...gold

Nah. He beat an incumbent whom, IMHO, wasn't all that flawed. This is a district Obama won handily in 2008, and by a reasonable margin in 2012. Yes the district trended heavily for Trump, and was the reason LePage got reelected, let's call this a rental is way early and over-exaggerated.

I suspect boring a scandal or wave election, golden has a long career in this District, though I admittedly wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Poliquin’s favorables were disastrous

Are trumps any better in the district? Serious question because I'm not sure. If not, one can readily argue that similar to most of the Midwest, outside of Ohio, damn it, these working-class areas are reverting to their natural Democratic lean after flirting with trumpism. If so, golden will probably be fine until the next Republican wave election.

[henster]

Golden was an aide to Collins I think it's highly unlikely he runs against her.

[Torrain]

As thrilled as I am that Golden won, the fact he only won by 1% against one of the weakest R incumbents makes me think this has “one-term rental” written all over it. Hence he should just go for Senate and hope to strike...gold

Nah. He beat an incumbent whom, IMHO, wasn't all that flawed. This is a district Obama won handily in 2008, and by a reasonable margin in 2012. Yes the district trended heavily for Trump, and was the reason LePage got reelected, let's call this a rental is way early and over-exaggerated.

I suspect boring a scandal or wave election, golden has a long career in this District, though I admittedly wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Poliquin’s favorables were disastrous

Let’s not forget that Poliquin was the first Representative to lose re-election in this seat since 1916, so there’s a serious trend being bucked here.

[OneJ]

As thrilled as I am that Golden won, the fact he only won by 1% against one of the weakest R incumbents makes me think this has “one-term rental” written all over it. Hence he should just go for Senate and hope to strike...gold

Golden should be fine for 2020 considering that no Dem House incumbents lost re-election.

[Landslide Lyndon]

As thrilled as I am that Golden won, the fact he only won by 1% against one of the weakest R incumbents makes me think this has “one-term rental” written all over it. Hence he should just go for Senate and hope to strike...gold

Golden should be fine for 2020 considering that no Dem House incumbents lost re-election.

No Dem House incumbents lost re-election in a D+8 or more environment that is. He would have just as high a chance at the Senate seat (which is infinitely more valuable) than he would at re-election, assuming the GOP runs a competent challenger. We're incredibly polarized now.

Trump in the White House is the best thing going for all these newly elected Democrats in swing districts, just like W. was ten years ago for the class of 2006.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So with Poliguin down, that puts called dem seats at 229 - 34 flips by my count. Including leaning seats (CA39, CA45, NY22, NM02, UT04) dems now at 234 - 39 flips. Maybe its just me, but I really want to see another flip to make this 235 and 40.

It looks like there is a good chance that CA-21 might actually come through now.

UT-04 is a question mark though.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

As thrilled as I am that Golden won, the fact he only won by 1% against one of the weakest R incumbents makes me think this has “one-term rental” written all over it. Hence he should just go for Senate and hope to strike...gold

Golden should be fine for 2020 considering that no Dem House incumbents lost re-election.

No Dem House incumbents lost re-election in a D+8 or more environment that is. He would have just as high a chance at the Senate seat (which is infinitely more valuable) than he would at re-election, assuming the GOP runs a competent challenger. We're incredibly polarized now.

Yeah, I think you may be right.

[Orser67]

So with Poliguin down, that puts called dem seats at 229 - 34 flips by my count. Including leaning seats (CA39, CA45, NY22, NM02, UT04) dems now at 234 - 39 flips. Maybe its just me, but I really want to see another flip to make this 235 and 40.

Same! I'm irrationally fixated on those round numbers. Since I don't have much hope for the big senate/gubernatorial races in FL and GA, the House is keeping the post-election period interesting.

[wbrocks67]

Is NY-22 gonna be called in this century or...

[2016]

Democrats apparently will STEAL yet another House Race

https://apnews.com/637295ca889947e0bb0a0560ff1437a8

Because that Decision by the Judge will most like benefit the Democrat in GA-7. Abrams would need 17.7K Votes to force a Runoff in the Gov Race. She will not get there BUT she likely will help the Democrat Carolyn B. in GA-7 to defeat Incumbent Republican Rob Woddall.

[Virginiá]

Democrats apparently will STEAL yet another House Race

https://apnews.com/637295ca889947e0bb0a0560ff1437a8

Because that Decision by the Judge will most like benefit the Democrat in GA-7. Abrams would need 17.7K Votes to force a Runoff in the Gov Race. She will not get there BUT she likely will help the Democrat Carolyn B. in GA-7 to defeat Incumbent Republican Rob Woddall.

For the last time, counting votes is not stealing. Really people like you should be ashamed of yourselves for constantly blowing this horn when there is no actual """stealing""" going on. This helps ruin faith in our institutions and process, all over procedures we knew were either going to happen or likely to happen. It also means that if someone actually does legitimately try and steal an election in the future, the right's endless cries of non-existent fraud and theft will have less impact on the rest of the population.

If you don't like counting ballots with small errors:

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Maybe you should just make a case for that instead of bloviating about "stealing."

[Virginiá]

About Kathy Hoffman (New SPOI) - not entirely germane to the topic but still:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-31-year-old-had-had-enough-so-she-ran-and-won/2018/11/14/cd6a7046-e6c2-11e8-bbdb-72fdbf9d4fed_story.html

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>Arizona

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1063149504982065157

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1063142166883696641