MS-Gov: Trent Lott for governor in 2019?

[smoltchanov]

the Mississippi good-old-boy network would allow him to win should he desire it, but I doubt he's really that interested.

He will be 78 by 2019. Isn't it slightly too old for freshman governor?

[smoltchanov]

I hope someone from the Barbour-Lott-Cochran wing of the MS GOP can seize back control of the state house from Phil Bryant's True Believers.

Well, if they will quarrel too much it may be Chris McDaniel wing of the GOP, which prevails. At least - temporarily..

[smoltchanov]

I really don't understand how MS Dems can't scrounge together a candidate who can squeak out a win more or less running as an old school Southern Democrat.  With such a large Black population, all he'd need to do is win like 30% of Whites, right?  There's no way a coalition of old Dixiecrats who are about to die plus some poor Whites can't get near 30%...

Vast majority of "old school Southern Democrats", who are still politically active in Mississippi, are now Republicans. The same with political officeholders of this type. I counted more then dozen Republican legislators who began their career as conservative Democrats. And remaining Democratic white officeholders are, usually, "not conservative enough" for these people (in addition: they have difficulties of winning frequently Black- and liberal- dominated Democratic primaries. To win primary you, usually, must be at least somewhat left-of-center on something, but that dooms you in general)

[smoltchanov]

I really don't understand how MS Dems can't scrounge together a candidate who can squeak out a win more or less running as an old school Southern Democrat.  With such a large Black population, all he'd need to do is win like 30% of Whites, right?  There's no way a coalition of old Dixiecrats who are about to die plus some poor Whites can't get near 30%...

Generally the only way to attract those extra 20% of whites to the Democratic Party again would be moving heavily to the right, which would in turn decrease black turnout. That wouldn't even be enough, because if you want a conservative governor, why not just vote Republican? It would require a Republican candidate that was bad enough that people want an alternative.

Right, but most non-biased people could agree that the old Dixiecrats were only really conservatives compared to the national Democratic Party; they certainly weren't as conservative, especially on fiscal issues, as the current crop of Southern Republicans are.  I question whether a socially conservative, fiscally moderate-to-populist Southern Democrat would decrease Black turnout that much, but I'd need someone more well-versed in local MS politics to correct me if I'm wrong.  It literally worked for decades.

I should have linked this article with my other comments. The guy discussed in the WaPo story below was the 2007 Democratic candidate for governor. He is very similar to the type of candidate that you are talking about.
 
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/27/AR2007042702044.html

Yes, but even him got only slightly above 42% against Barbour. That's better then DuPree's 39% against Bryant, but not by much..And, generally, since 1999 Democrats lose 3-4% in each next governor race..

[smoltchanov]

Huh, surprising that Lott never got his turn at the governor's mansion. He'd probably not be as bad as Bryant on healthcare issues, at least.

Probably. But it's a sort of irony: when Lott was first elected in 1972 no one considered him to be anything, but extreme conservative... Times change...