Canadian federal election - 2015

[jaichind]

No way the Liberals only get 152 seats with those numbers...

On the surface I would agree with you.  Really comes down to Ontario.  I guess 308.com took a view that the ND vote will be concentrated in a way in Ontario as to take away Liberals seats in Lib-Conservative marginals as well having a relative advantage in ND-Liberal marginals.  A comparison with 2004 election I think is helpful
               
                                  Lib vote    Lib seats    ND vote   ND seats   Cons vote  Cons seats
2004                            44.7            75             18.1            7               31.5           24
2015 (308.com)            41.6            61            21.7          17                32.6          43

A relative shift of the vote from Lib to ND from 2004 to a projected 2015 results in Lib going from getting 71% of the seats to 50% of the seats in Ontario.

[jaichind]

I could see an accord like Ontario 1985 - defeat the Conservatives on a confidence vote, then let the second place party govern as a minority without a formal coalition, although the third party would get some concessions.

Is there a tradition in Canada of letting the largest party rule, even as a minority rather than a "coalition of losers" especially when there is no pre-election alliance between the second and third place parties?