Election models megathread

[Sir Mohamed]

They're providing chances for majorties, right? What I expect:

- Chance for GOP majority in the House: 93%

- Chance for GOP majority in the Senate: 64%

[Sir Mohamed]

They're providing chances for majorties, right? What I expect:

- Chance for GOP majority in the House: 93%

- Chance for GOP majority in the Senate: 64%

No, have you seen the polls Barnes and Fetterman, CCM, Hassan, Warnock and Bennett are tied or leading and Kellyits a 40 percent chance of Rs winning S the Hits 60/40

Its 150 days to election, Rs can still win most tossup races due to fact Prez Biden is at 40s approvals.

[Sir Mohamed]

GOP chances to take the senate are down to 32 in 100 at 538's website. House is also down to 76 in 100, coming from 78. So Dems have a nearly 70% shot at holding the senate now.

[Sir Mohamed]

I find it hilarious that 538 writes Dems are "slighty favored" to take the senate with a 68 in 100 chance while the GOP is "favored" to take the House with a 75 in 100 chance. Come on, 68 and 75 isn't that far apart. Poor framing.

[Sir Mohamed]

538 has Dems now at a 70 in 100 chance to keep the senate. House is down 74 in 100 for the GOP.

I find it hilarious that 538 writes Dems are "slighty favored" to take the senate with a 68 in 100 chance while the GOP is "favored" to take the House with a 75 in 100 chance. Come on, 68 and 75 isn't that far apart. Poor framing.

I believe they use 70% as the dividing line between those two categories.

They're still saying "slightly favored" now, with 70-30. The GOP is still "favored" at 74-26. LOL.

[Sir Mohamed]

Also, why the hell does the RCP model have the GOP winning Wisconsin and Pennsylvania when their polling averages have Fetterman and Barnes ~5 points up in each?

Because RCP is not a neutral site. It had an R-bias for quite some time, especially with the duration of including certain pollsters in polling averages.

[Sir Mohamed]

According to 538' deluxe model, GOP chances to take to House dropped to 70 in 100. Lowest recorded so far. Same in the classic model. Lite is even just 57 in 100.

[Sir Mohamed]

Dem House chances now 1 point ahead of Republican Senate chances on 538 default

That was also briefly the case yesterday, before GOP chance in the House jumped back to 72 in 100. Now 70 in 100 again, via deluxe model.