Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Zinneke]

Almost as farcical as Belgian federalism. Almost. But hey, Rutte gets to say he stood up to Brussels.

Anyway, new polls out, English language source. http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2016/11/vvd-increases-lead-in-latest-poll-of-polls-50plus-marches-on/

It looks like VVD have definitively overtaken PVV.

11 seats for 50+. Like equal with PvdA. Wtf.

[Dutch Conservative]

The CDA senators will support the Association Agreement, so with VVD/PvdA (minus Monasch)/D66 in parliament and VVD/PvdA/D66/CDA in the Senate, the government has a majority and will not introduce a law to retract Dutch support for the Agreement. However, Rutte will still negotiate an additional, legally binding declaration on the Dutch interpretation of the treaty: it is not a pathway to EU membership, there will be no military aid (which contradicts parts of the very same agreement, which is rather strange), and Ukraine will not receive more EU money because of the Agreement (which, I think, contradicts the agreement as well). The Netherlands also wants to make sure there will be no freedom of goods, persons and service with Ukraine. Other EU member states and Ukraine weirdly seem to be okay with all this, which probably means the Dutch declaration isn't worth the paper it's written on.

In turn, the government would have accepted a D66 initiative (LOL) to exclude international agreements from citizens' initiatives leading to referendums. The VVD oppose referendums in the first place and have made it very clear that this referendum does not have any meaning for them, so it is mainly the PvdA that needed to be convinced to change the referendum law. So not only will the Dutch referendum be ignored, the possibility to organize any referendum related to the EU will also be buried. Gotta love Dutch democracy.

Lol, and then they wonder why there is so much distrust in government. Beautiful how D'66 has transformed from a anti-establishment to an establishment party, in 50 years.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The compromise could be just to establish a quorum so 50% of voters are required for a referendum that would change foreign  relations.

[DC Al Fine]

In turn, the government would have accepted a D66 initiative (LOL) to exclude international agreements from citizens' initiatives leading to referendums.

Bahaha. Yeah I did a double take there.

Lol, and then they wonder why there is so much distrust in government. Beautiful how D'66 has transformed from a anti-establishment to an establishment party, in 50 years.

They've long since completed the transition to bland social liberal party I guess.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Remember how the initial dream of D66 was to bring in an American style executive President and FPTP?

[Zinneke]

Remember how the initial dream of D66 was to bring in an American style executive President and FPTP?

Remember when Alexander Pechtold won the leadership election after D66 got trounced in 2002? That's when that movement died.

[mvd10]

Excluding international agreements from the referendum law probably saves us from a TTIP referendum (if the EU and the US ever reach an agreement).

[DavidB.]

Excluding international agreements from the referendum law probably saves us from a TTIP referendum (if the EU and the US ever reach an agreement).

True, that is the upside of this. Such a referendum would really be unbearable. Still, we should have mandatory, binding referendums when powers are transferred from the government to the EU level, like Denmark has (an association agreement or trade agreement would not qualify for a referendum). It has enabled them to strike much better deals and have important opt-outs.

Almost as farcical as Belgian federalism. Almost. But hey, Rutte gets to say he stood up to Brussels.

He doesn't, though. If he did, now that would be farcical.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

the trouble with the Danish system is you get ridiculous grandstanding (on both sides) over random stuff like the EU PATENT COURT (or whatever).

[DavidB.]

the trouble with the Danish system is you get ridiculous grandstanding (on both sides) over random stuff like the EU PATENT COURT (or whatever).

They voted for that. I don't see the issue. The year after, they voted against doing away with one of their opt-outs related to Interpol. No biggie.

[DavidB.]

Remember how the initial dream of D66 was to bring in an American style executive President and FPTP?

Baudet's Forum voor Democratie made an admittedly hilarious campaign video as a parody of that.

D66's original campaign ad in 1967 (which was considered really fancy at the time), in which Hans van Mierlo talks about the waning influence of voters, the immutability of the rules of the political system, leading him to launch D66 in order to change all that.

FvD's campaign ad this time, with the same video of Van Mierlo and Baudet talking about the exact same things (with a similar wording), which are still so true today, proving in a very striking manner how nothing has changed and how D66 failed to deliver what it had promised.

[DavidB.]

Monasch left the PvdA parliamentary group and cancelled his party membership. This means that VVD and PvdA do not have a majority in parliament anymore: they now have 75/150 seats. It won't matter because D66 will support the government whenever necessary.

From the start of the leadership campaign onward, Jacques Monasch had complained about the fact that the PvdA manifesto is launched on the same day as the declaration of the winner of the leadership election. This means that the new PvdA leader has to defend an already existing party manifesto instead of being able to make one themselves, which is why Monasch continued to insist that the election was "rigged": candidates Asscher and Samsom both exerted a considerable amount of influence over the manifesto that will soon be published, so this is fine for them, but Monasch supports an entirely different line on various issues. Now, some say Monasch retracted his candidacy himself while others say the PvdA did not accept him as a candidate. Anyway, as a consequence of this Monasch left the party. This means I will officially not be Comrade David. SAD!

The random nobodies, Oosting and Bosman, have also not been accepted, which means that the leadership election is now officially solely between Samsom and Asscher, politicians who are for 100% in agreement with each other (this is even worded like this by some media, lol).

Monasch will also introduce a motion of no confidence against Rutte/the government for not respecting the referendum result.

[Zinneke]

Do you think Monasch will do like Mélenchon in France or Wesphaël here (before he got arrested for the murder his wife) and set up a personality based party that tries to squeeze itself in between the traditional centre-left party, the greens and the traditional communist party?

I hope so, as this election is virtually lost for progressives. What we need is a rigorous example of how factionalism and lack of leadership (post-Samsom|Hollande 2012) is just a major issue across Europe. Makes me happy that we at least have someone with balls and vision like Magnette in Belgium, even if he chose the wrong party. Monasch will either bring this factionalism to the forefront or turn out to be a strong leader of the Dutch left.

[mvd10]

Dutch prosecutors have demanded that Geert Wilders be fined 5000 euros for his fewer Moroccans speech. In 2014 after the local elections Wilders asked his voters whether they want more or fewer Moroccans. His supports chanted fewer and he said that he would take care of that.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_YEpoG5N8k

[SunSt0rm]

50+ has overtaken PVDA, there is no sign of positive effect yet of the PVDA leadership election in the polls

[Zinneke]

wrong thread

EDIT : Hijacking my sh**tpost to laugh at Wilders wanting to ban Sylvana Simons - this is the man, as Jesse Klaver has pointed out, that says he is being silenced in the media.

[DavidB.]

wrong thread

EDIT : Hijacking my sh**tpost to laugh at Wilders wanting to ban Sylvana Simons - this is the man, as Jesse Klaver has pointed out, that says he is being silenced in the media.

The irony is just stunning.

[DavidB.]

Today a partial burqa ban was passed in parliament. Burqas and niqabs (as well as balaclavas and motor helmets, in order to avoid making it look like anti-Islamic legislation) will be banned in "education and healthcare institutions, government buildings and on public transport", Interior Minister Plasterk (PvdA) said. The burqa ban was a VVD election promise in 2012. It still has to pass the senate. The fine would be 405 euros. All parties except GroenLinks, D66 and DENK voted for it.

[DavidB.]

Tomorrow, a referendum will take place in Rotterdam on the municipality's construction plans. The municipality government (Livable Rotterdam-D66-CDA) wants to replace 20,000 cheap housing units by more expensive houses. There are currently 168,000 houses in the cheapest category, whereas only 125,600 households have a right to one. This means Rotterdam will continue to attract lower incomes, whereas the municipal government seeks to keep young professionals in the city. As a consequence of the plan, some people would have to move (sometimes to some of the poorer Rotterdam suburbs). The city government says the plan will improve the quality of living in poor neighborhoods because of gentrification.

The Woonreferendum committee, founded by the SP, initiated the referendum through an official petition because it opposes the plans. The main opposition against the plan comes from the SP and trade unions. Turnout has to be over 30% for the referendum to be valid. This threshold is unlikely to be reached given that Rotterdam has notoriously low turnout in every election (24.4% in the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement referendum earlier this year). However, alderman Schneider (Livable Rotterdam, by far the largest party in the city and a "PVV light") says he would not ignore a "no" and will look for potential ways to amend the plan if voters reject it.

[Angel of Death]

The latest peilingwijzer:

And here is an online tool to find the theoretical majority coalitions for a given distribution of seats. The (ideological) coherence of these will also be scored closer to the election.

The polls are indeed not looking good in terms of governability.

[DavidB.]

Yes, it now definitely appears that the PVV spike is due to the attention for Wilders' trial, which, according to polls, most people dislike and view as an attempt to silence him. Interestingly, this seems to have hurt the CDA more than the VVD, though both have gone down.

[DavidB.]

Turnout in the Rotterdam referendum was 12.2% at 5:15 PM, lmao.

[Zinneke]

I think CDA will gradually go down as the election comes nearer. In this case its probably due to 50PLUS

[Mike88]

I think CDA will gradually go down as the election comes nearer. In this case its probably due to 50PLUS

Could there be tactical voting to VVD from CDA, D66 and 50 plus to prevent a PVV victory?

[SunSt0rm]

Could be, but nobody is expecting that the PVV will ever form a government let alone Wilders be PM.
Next, the voters of 50plus are closer to the PVV than to the VVD. 50Plus and PVV wants to lower the retirement age and ease the rules for Pension Funds, while VVD wants to increase the retirement age and dont want to ease the rules as it would harm the younger generation