If Hillary comes in third in Iowa, is she finished?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think so. Losing is bad enough, third is a death sentence. Basically what happened to Howard Dean.

[bullmoose88]

I think so. Losing is bad enough, third is a death sentence. Basically what happened to Howard Dean.

Yeah, but I don't think Hillary's a perceived favorite for the nomination that Dean might have been a while before Iowa.

Hillary finishing 3rd wouldnt be a shocker.

[Boris]

No, especially if the third place victory is expected and its clear that assets have been focused upon other states. And of course, whether or not she has the political skills of her husband.

[jokerman]

No; I could envision a scenario in which she came in third in Iowa (with Edwards winning), and then her comming in close second to Obama in NH and her winning South Carolina (I have a feeling that when it comes to it, those South Carolina african american voters are going to cast their ballots for a Clinton).  She would sustain enough momentum to make it to the big primary day and thus still manage to out spend everyone else and take the majority of the delegates.  Odds are she wouldn't end up with enough to win it outright, but at the convention I find it very unlikely that Obama or Edwards would capitulate to each other and release their delegates.  Someone like Richardson, a strong 4th, would be enticed with a VP spot to endorse her, and combined with a strong win of superdelegates via some concoction of Bill's political genius, she could win the nomination at the convention.

[MaC]

Tell me if this sounds right.

Either Edwards or Richardson pulls a surprize first, Obama comes in second.  (either Edwards or Richardson is third)

[Reignman]

She wouldn't be finished. If Iowa voted today, she might get third. It doesn't stop her from enjoying a ridiculous amount of national support across the board.

[Verily]

She wouldn't be finished. If Iowa voted today, she might get third. It doesn't stop her from enjoying a ridiculous amount of national support across the board.

Right now, certainly. In the future? It's unclear. In every state where the campaign has started revving up (IA, NV, NH and SC), Clinton is not doing as well as she is nationally; the only other states where she's doing so poorly are her major opponents' home states (IL, NC and NM). If she can't keep her voters once the campaign starts, her latent nationwide support is irrelevant.

[J. J.]

No, if she's not expected to.

Iowa is basically a test of grassroots organization within that state in the respective party. 

[Dr. Cynic]

Doubtful.

She would only be finished if she tanked Super Tuesday. I predict Edwards will take Iowa... Obama will likely grab NH as long as he doesn't crash and burn a'la Dean. Hillary isn't this season's Dean... Barack is.

[Eraserhead]

Hmm... I'm not sure. John Kerry narrowly won the thing in '04 and basically became the candidate over night (thanks to the 24 hour news network's non-stop, positive coverage of his victory). Clinton should be done if she comes in third but we can't forget that she has virtually unlimited resources and that MSM is clearly dying for her to secure the nomination.

Imagine if she comes in fourth though...even with Vilsack's support? Hmm...

[Padfoot]

Yes, she will be done.  I don't think she'll even be third at this point.  The recent memo leaked from her campaign about skipping Iowa isn't going to go over well there.  And with Richardson showing some serious life in Iowa and New Hampshire I doubt she'll be able to hold on to her current third much longer.  I think the real question is going to be, what will she do once she drops out of the top spot in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina?

[Jacobtm]

With Super Tuesday containing more than half of the country's voters, and many expensive markets like NYC, LA, Miami, etc., the person with the most money, or anyone with lots of money, will be able to stay in until at least then, where they can buy alot more ads in expensive markets.

[Keystone Phil]

Too much wishful thinking on your part, BRTD. I look forward to your support of a third party candidate.

[MODU]

No, she won't be finished, but she will have a long road ahead of her.

[Mr. Morden]

It depends on the margin of victory/loss and what the expectations are going into Iowa.  In 2004, Dean and Gephardt were leading every poll in Iowa right up until about two or three weeks before the vote.  Going into election day, there were still people who thought Dean or Gephardt might win it.  The fact that they then got 3rd and 4th place with such a huge margin between 2nd and 3rd place was seen as a sign that their campaigns were collapsing.  If there are similar expectations for HRC as there were for Dean, and she ends up 20 points behind the first place finisher in IA, it would destroy her campaign.  But if the expectations are set right, it wouldn't.

[AngelFromKansas]

Iowa will be a swing state come the presidential race. So she has to stay in the state. It wouldn't be good for morale for the people in Iowa who are really behind her. She wont get support from the far left that Edwards and Obama are playing too. But they will comeback once she is the nominee. If they dont come then their just idiots.

Its good that she doesnt play to the far left of the party. Hillary should just focus on building up supporters across the state. Bill always believed to win a state, you dont focus on the people voting in the primary but you aim to turn areas that you would expect to lose 1:5 to a republican but come the election you only lose 1:4. By that stage, you should have won the state.

Hillary will be the democratic nominee for president. Bill Richardson will be her vice president.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Too much wishful thinking on your part, BRTD. I look forward to your support of a third party candidate.

I will never ever vote for a third party candidate in a swing state you idiot. I remember once you honestly thinking there was a possibility of me supporting Nader (I would support Santorum for any office before Nader)

I still wonder why you think Hillary is inevitable with her campaign tanking.

[Keystone Phil]

Too much wishful thinking on your part, BRTD. I look forward to your support of a third party candidate.

I will never ever vote for a third party candidate in a swing state you idiot. I remember once you honestly thinking there was a possibility of me supporting Nader (I would support Santorum for any office before Nader)

Don't get all snippy because you'll have to vote for Hillary. And, yes, I know you'd support Santorum over Nader because you've told us before when you went on one of your nutty Nader rants.

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How is her campaign tanking and if it is, which campaign is surging?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Too much wishful thinking on your part, BRTD. I look forward to your support of a third party candidate.

I will never ever vote for a third party candidate in a swing state you idiot. I remember once you honestly thinking there was a possibility of me supporting Nader (I would support Santorum for any office before Nader)

Don't get all snippy because you'll have to vote for Hillary. And, yes, I know you'd support Santorum over Nader because you've told us before when you went on one of your nutty Nader rants.

You said I'd vote for a third party just above. So now why does that change now? You also once said "I can't wait till you have to support Mr. Nader." I WOULD CUT OFF MY HAND BEFORE USING IT TO FILL IN THE BOX NEXT TO THAT VILE DISGUSTING PIECE OF HUMAN GARBAGE WHO NEEDS TO DO THE WORLD A FAVOR AND BLOW HIS F**KING BRAINS OUT.

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How is her campaign tanking and if it is, which campaign is surging?

Um, that she's in third in Iowa and quite a bit behind in NH? No one is really surging, the gains at her expense are split, although Edwards is gaining the most momentum and Richardson appears to be cutting into her support quite a bit.

[Mr. Morden]

Um, that she's in third in Iowa and quite a bit behind in NH?

Clinton is behind in NH?

[Trilobyte]

The only thing will hurt is performing much worse than expected, and Clinton has never been the favorite in Iowa. Edwards, who is the leader there, and Obama who is from a neighboring state, have much more to lose from a bad performance. Besides, being the establishment candidate means Clinton can recover from a couple of bad performances (like Bush in 2000), and New York is conveniently scheduled on Super Tuesday for her comeback.

It's funny seeing all these "Is Hillary tanking?" and "Is Hillary finished?" popping up. Being the early frontrunner, she is not expected to maintain an overwhelming lead as the campaign progresses, but that doesn't mean she is tanking.

[Eraserhead]

Hillary will be the democratic nominee for president. Bill Richardson will be her vice president.

Wow. You have the power to see into the future?

[Mr. Morden]

She would sustain enough momentum to make it to the big primary day and thus still manage to out spend everyone else and take the majority of the delegates.

What makes you think she'll be able to outspend everyone else?  The only reason she has more $ than Obama currently is because of the $10 million she was able to transfer from her Senate campaign, but that's a one time deal.  Obama is raising $ faster than she is, and could overtake her in cash on hand within a few months.

[Keystone Phil]

I WOULD CUT OFF MY HAND BEFORE USING IT TO FILL IN THE BOX NEXT TO THAT VILE DISGUSTING PIECE OF HUMAN GARBAGE WHO NEEDS TO DO THE WORLD A FAVOR AND BLOW HIS F**KING BRAINS OUT.

K

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Uh, being third in Iowa doesn't end your campaign and everything I have seen shows her leading in New Hampshire.

Um, that she's in third in Iowa and quite a bit behind in NH?

Clinton is behind in NH?

No, he's just dumb.

[Joe Republic]

I WOULD CUT OFF MY HAND BEFORE USING IT TO FILL IN THE BOX NEXT TO THAT VILE DISGUSTING PIECE OF HUMAN GARBAGE WHO NEEDS TO DO THE WORLD A FAVOR AND BLOW HIS F**KING BRAINS OUT.

This makes no sense.  I always had you pegged as Ralph Nader's #1 fan.  Please correct your post accordingly.