Mississippi....strange place

[Alcon]

Mississippi is a very simple state politically. For all elections before the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and after Reconstruction, only whites are voting. Before 1948 Mississippi is solidly Democratic because the Republicans had freed the slaves and blocked their treason during the Civil War. Truman pressed hard for Civil Rights during the '48 campaign, causing a rift between the South and the Democrats. Alienated from both parties, the Deep South voted for segregationist candidates (Thurmond, Byrd, Goldwater, Wallace) through 1968. Whites in the South finally realized the futility of throwing away their voice by voting for a third party and instead took over the Republican Party. Jimmy Carter pulled off Mississippi (barely) by getting all of the black vote and just enough white vote (he was a Southerner running against a moderate Republican just after Watergate) to capture the state.    Since 1980, if you are white in Mississippi you vote for the Republican presidential candidate and if you are black you vote for the Democrat. Interestingly, this pattern does not always apply in local elections.

you basically hit it on the head.

BUT!  Kerry won MS in the 18-29 category, so there is hope for our future!

CNN said by 63%...I don't buy that, nor most any exit poll statistic.  Sorry.

[Alcon]

Mississippi is a very simple state politically. For all elections before the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and after Reconstruction, only whites are voting. Before 1948 Mississippi is solidly Democratic because the Republicans had freed the slaves and blocked their treason during the Civil War. Truman pressed hard for Civil Rights during the '48 campaign, causing a rift between the South and the Democrats. Alienated from both parties, the Deep South voted for segregationist candidates (Thurmond, Byrd, Goldwater, Wallace) through 1968. Whites in the South finally realized the futility of throwing away their voice by voting for a third party and instead took over the Republican Party. Jimmy Carter pulled off Mississippi (barely) by getting all of the black vote and just enough white vote (he was a Southerner running against a moderate Republican just after Watergate) to capture the state.    Since 1980, if you are white in Mississippi you vote for the Republican presidential candidate and if you are black you vote for the Democrat. Interestingly, this pattern does not always apply in local elections.

you basically hit it on the head.

BUT!  Kerry won MS in the 18-29 category, so there is hope for our future!

CNN said by 63%...I don't buy that, nor most any exit poll statistic.  Sorry.

I know the stat that you are referencing and I believe that somebody at CNN entered it backwards on the website.  That is the only logical explaination for it.

Good theory, but the numbers add up with those 18-29 numbers, I believe.  They just messed up, it seems.

[Alcon]

You don't find this suspicious?

(snip)

considering the demographics of Mississippi, I would say it's unexpected, but not suspicious.

Remember (well actually there's no way you would) the Channel 1 poll that polled high school students across the country?  Bush did better in it than he did in the actual election, but in MS it was really close.

I believe Channel One even less.



Montana >70% Bush?  South Carolina and Mississippi more Democratic than Washington?  Mississippi as Democratic as California?  Uh-huh.