Meet the Swingers
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California Dreamer
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« on: March 04, 2004, 09:02:28 AM »

Pew Research has released interesting review of Swing voters

Highlights are:
- 29% of voters are uncommitted to Bush or Kerry
(remainder of voters are close to evenly split between the two with Kerry getting a few more but it is within the margin of error and Kerry has had lots of good press so lets just say 'even')

This group seems to have good news and bad news for both Bush and Kerry
- 75% have favorable view of Kerry
- 70% have favorable view of Bush
- 79% think Economy is fair or poor (only 20% good/excellent)
- 61% think war in Iraq was the 'right decision'
- 64% oppose gay marraige
- 58% oppose more restrictions on abortion

god is this group conflicted!....how annoying that they get to choose our next president

Click to read Pew Research Report on Swing Voters
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Mort from NewYawk
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« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2004, 09:48:01 AM »

Very interesting - sound like Nascar dads to me.

Really, opebo disagrees with me (in another thread), but these are the old Reagan Democrats that were never fully converted to the GOP.

They're not well off, they don't have lots of retirement and college savings (and therefore could care less about the stock market), they're socially conservative and patriotic.

And I'll bet they're over-represented in the most important MidWest states.

They actually have favorable views of both candidates! I don't think this kind of voter will respond well to negative campaigning.

However, opebo seems to be right in that they will respond to the social conservative message.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2004, 10:15:49 AM »

I reckon that about 60% are Reagan Democrats and 40% are Wallace Democrats.
Similer but ever so slightly different.
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opebo
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« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2004, 11:19:49 AM »

Why do you people think swing voters are some special brand of Democrat?  They're just in the middle, neither Democrat nor Republican.  They're unideological types - something I have to admit I find to be a telltale sign of ignorance.  But California Dreamer's information shows that as the economy improves, assuming it does, Kerry's only issue goes away.  As Mort says, the cultural issues, particularly gay marriage, win this group strongly for Bush over Kerry.
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2004, 11:29:54 AM »

On party affiliation they are (surprise surprise) evenly split:
39% Independent
27% Republican
25% Democrat

although I am sure some NASCAR dads are swing voters, there are also plenty of Soccer Moms too, in fact 55% are women.

Read the whole report, there is some interesting stuff in there

My read of it is that the cultural stuff is a wash for both and that the election will come down to the economy. In November if the economy seems to be on the right track, Bush wins, if on the wrong track Bush loses.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2004, 11:30:44 AM »

Most of the above swing voters will either be Democrats or Independents.
The Democratic Party is much more of a "broad church" than the Republican Party, and if everyone who was a registered Democrat always voted Democrat, you guys would be out of the White House permanantly.
Fortunately for you, this isn't the case.
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dunn
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« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2004, 11:31:35 AM »

...  They're unideological types - something I have to admit I find to be a telltale sign of ignorance.


maybe they understand better than a rep red-nack or a dem ultra-liberal,  those guys that will vote for a donkey or an elephant as long as it's the party colours.
and these people gave your guy Reagen the job

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California Dreamer
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« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2004, 11:37:38 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2004, 11:39:45 AM by California Dreamer »

Most of the above swing voters will either be Democrats or Independents.
The Democratic Party is much more of a "broad church" than the Republican Party, and if everyone who was a registered Democrat always voted Democrat, you guys would be out of the White House permanantly.
Fortunately for you, this isn't the case.

well if you read my post you would see that actually more are Republicans by a small margin (but this is mostly due to the fact that Kerry gets more confiirmed voters in the poll).

On political 'leanings' they cam in:
Conservative 34%
Moderate 48%
Liberal 14%

....but I think that the lables of liberal and conservative have been twisted around so much that they are no longer relevent.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2004, 11:45:21 AM »

Quote
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That would explain it then
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2004, 11:51:55 AM »

well half of the 'swing voters' are independents, the rest are pretty much evenly split...it is quite far from most of them being Dem (or Republicans)

...and regardless  if you are truly undecided at this point then it is likely that even if you are registered with one party of the other your are not one of the 'true believers'...so party wont matter that much. Everyone who gets elected president needs a good showing of crossovers.

One of the reasons Bush got elected is that he sold himself as a 'compassionate conservative', this sold well to many moderate Dems.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2004, 12:33:01 PM »

It's strange that such high percenateges are oppose gay marriage AND more restrictions on abortion. That sounds good for Kerry and the Dems, since abortion is an old issue, gay marriage is a new one. i can't see how you could accept killing that goes against your beliefs and not letting people confirm their love. I think that if Kerry and the Dem party can spin this the right way there's still hope for them on gay marriage.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2004, 12:44:06 PM »

There are a  number of interesting stats here...like the fact that 39% of swing voters are in the South! Smiley Maybe the South is more up for grabs than usually thought. Also, 66% of NBush-voters identify themselves as conservatives, only 31% of Kerry voters identify as liberals. It's also interesting that 20% of Bush-voters 'seldom or never' attend church, 81% of Kerry voters belong to non-union households and 20% of Kerry-voters are conservatives...

It appears that over-all the swing voters are closer to the Kerry-voters than to the Bush-voters, but that the Bush voters are more strongly for him than the Kerry-voters are for Kerry on issues.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2004, 01:10:15 PM »


Might have been at work here...

Romney celebrates Brown win; McQuilken won't concede yet
By Michael Kunzelman / News Staff Writer
Thursday, March 4, 2004

BOSTON -- Looking past a possible recount in Tuesday's state Senate election, Gov. Mitt Romney hailed state Rep. Scott Brown's apparent victory as proof that the Republican Party's campaign to reform state government is resonating with voters.
 
     Romney, flanked yesterday by Brown at a press conference in the corner office, said Brown's defeat of Millis Democrat Angus McQuilken ushers in "a new day in Massachusetts politics."
 
     "The Democratic machine up on Beacon Hill worked very hard for Angus, and they didn't win," Romney said. "Against all those odds, a candidate stepped forward, fought with a message of reform and was able to win."
 
     McQuilken has not conceded defeat, however, even though Brown's campaign has claimed a margin of victory of 350 votes.
 
     Yesterday morning, McQuilken said he was still deciding whether to seek a recount.
 
     "With an election this close, just a few hundred votes out of 40,000 ballots cast, that is by anybody's definition a close outcome," he said. "This decision is about what's best for voters. I feel I owe it to those voters to consider what options are available."
 
     If McQuilken decides to ask for a recount, he must notify Secretary of State William Galvin's office by Monday at 5 p.m.
 
     A recount would be automatically ordered by Galvin if the official tally has McQuilken losing by under one-half of 1 percent.
 
     If McQuilken lost by more than one-half of 1 percent, then he would be required to obtain at least 10 signatures from each of the 51 voting precincts in the Norfolk, Bristol and Middlesex District before he could file a petition for a recount.
 
     McQuilken would have to file those signatures with local town and city clerks within 10 days of Tuesday's special election.
 
     "If he gets those signatures, then there would be a recount," said Galvin spokesman Brian McNiff.
 
     Romney conceded that McQuilken has "every right" to challenge the outcome of the election, but Brown said a recount does not fit with the Democrats' rationale for scheduling the election on the same day as the presidential primary.
 
     Senate Democrats have claimed that piggy-backing the senatorial election on the presidential primary would save communities an estimated $200,000.
 
     "The whole point was to save cities and towns money. A recount doesn't do that," Brown said.
 
     Anticipating a recount, Brown's campaign has contacted town and city clerks across the district and requested copies of all records associated with the election.
 
     Sherborn Town Clerk Carole Marple said Brown campaign's request included a complete list of voters, records of any repairs to voting machines and the names of all of the police officers who transported voting machines.
 
     "It does seem extreme at this point because there's not even a recount yet," Marple said.
 
     Brown's campaign manager, Rob Cunningham, said the records requests are a necessary precaution.
 
     "We need to be prepared if Angus asks for a recount," he said. "We believe there was no significant irregularities to speak of and a great deal of integrity in the results."
 
     Brown said he wants to be sworn into office by Wednesday, when the Legislature resumes its debate on plans to approve a constitutional ban on gay marriage. But a recount would almost certainly delay his swearing-in for weeks.
 
     "I'm hoping Secretary Galvin will stick to his word and swear me in before the next constitutional convention so I can properly represent the people of the entire Senate district," Brown said.
 
     Either way, Brown will be able to vote in next week's constitutional convention. McQuilken's election, however, could have added a potentially critical pro-gay vote to the Legislature.
 
     Ron Crews, a prominent opponent of gay marriage who serves as head of the Newton-based Massachusetts Family Institute, said the divisive issue appeared to be the "defining factor" in the race, given that McQuilken is an outspoken supporter of gay rights while Brown already has voted to ban same-sex marriage.
 
     "This was a clear difference between the two candidates," said Crews, an Ashland resident. "The marriage issue was one of the major reasons why people crossed over party lines and voted for Scott Brown."
 
     Brown apparently earned more votes than McQuilken in five of the district's 12 communities: Attleboro, Norfolk, North Attleboro, Plainville and Wrentham.
 
     McQuilken carried Franklin, Millis, Natick, Needham, Sherborn, Wayland and Wellesley.
 
     Brown appeared to rely heavily on his hometown base of support, as he received at least 800 more votes than McQuilken in Wrentham. McQuilken, in contrast, only beat Brown by eight votes in his hometown of Millis, possibly reflecting the fact that Brown's House seat includes one precinct in that town.
 
     Brown also fared better in Needham than some anticipated. McQuilken captured nearly 1,000 more votes than Brown in the town, but some observers expected Jacques' longtime chief of staff to win by a wider margin in her old hometown.
 
     "I think (McQuilken) probably expected to do better in Needham, given that he has got some roots here," said Needham businessman Richard Gatto, one of five Democratic primary opponents McQuilken defeated on Feb. 3.
 
     Republican Party leaders claim the election results indicate at least 1,500 Democrats in Needham alone crossed party lines to vote for Brown.
 
     "Democrats did cross over," Brown said. "In Needham alone, there were 4,700 Democratic ballots. I only lost by 1,000 in Needham. We were down 30 points two weeks ago. There was a major crossover there."
 
     McQuilken garnered strong support in the northern end of the district, but Brown compensated by posting wide margins of victory at the southern tip, in communities he has represented in the House.
 
     "Angus didn't stay close enough in the southern towns," said state Rep. David Linsky, D-Natick.
 
     The race to fill Jacques' Senate seat was widely viewed as a critical test of Romney's campaign to expand the ranks of Republican lawmakers on Beacon Hill. Accordingly, the Massachusetts Republican Party invested more than $100,000 in Brown's campaign.
 
     Although Jacques' seat was held by a Republican for decades before she was elected in 1992, GOP leaders insist Brown was the underdog heading into Tuesday's election.
 
     "Given the long odds that were overcome by Scott Brown's campaign, it's an indication that the people of Massachusetts want to see reform. They want to see change," Romney said.
 
     But the governor downplayed the notion that Brown's win is a harbinger of widespread success for other Republican challengers this fall.
 
     "I can't tell you that we're going to be able replace sitting incumbents," Romney said. "Maybe we'll pick up one or two or three new seats in each (chamber). Maybe we'll just be able to hold our own, given the fact that John Kerry is going to be the Democratic nominee, as well."
 
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2004, 03:15:19 PM »

well as a Buchanan fan I am sure you believe that cultural issues are pre eminent.

However history shows that at the presidential level, after all the hoopla over flag burning, guns or whatever else people want to yell about, the economy trumps.

I am certain that a swing voter who is opposed to gay marraige and is worried about his job, will focus on the job first and whether a couple guys in San Francisco are getting married somewhere lower on the list.

Neither of the candidates will make gay marraige the central theme or key distinction, nor will the swing voters. This issue only helps at the bases
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jmfcst
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« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2004, 03:26:18 PM »
« Edited: March 04, 2004, 03:32:34 PM by jmfcst »

This group seems to have good news and bad news for both Bush and Kerry
- 75% have favorable view of Kerry
- 70% have favorable view of Bush
Click to read Pew Research Report on Swing Voters

The negative spotlight was never on Kerry during the primaries, rather it was on Dean.  Now that Kerry as emerged as the nominee, his favorable ratings have nowhere to go but DOWN!

Expect Bush to define Kerry per his voting record, and that definition will be made early and often with $100M.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2004, 03:36:09 PM »

This group seems to have good news and bad news for both Bush and Kerry
- 75% have favorable view of Kerry
- 70% have favorable view of Bush
Click to read Pew Research Report on Swing Voters

The negative spotlight was never on Kerry during the primaries, rather it was on Dean.  Now that Kerry as emerged as the nominee, his favorable ratings have nowhere to go but DOWN!

Expect Bush to define Kerry per his voting record, and that definition will be made early and often with $100M.

Is Bush gonna campaign with only $100M? That's only a dollar per voter...
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opebo
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« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2004, 03:41:36 PM »

This group seems to have good news and bad news for both Bush and Kerry
- 75% have favorable view of Kerry
- 70% have favorable view of Bush
Click to read Pew Research Report on Swing Voters

The negative spotlight was never on Kerry during the primaries, rather it was on Dean.  Now that Kerry as emerged as the nominee, his favorable ratings have nowhere to go but DOWN!

Expect Bush to define Kerry per his voting record, and that definition will be made early and often with $100M.

Is Bush gonna campaign with only $100M? That's only a dollar per voter...

Yeah that figure seems frighteningly low - I think its just what he has in the bank now - about 104 million.  Surely he can raise another 100M or so along the way.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2004, 03:45:22 PM »

[quote author=jmfcst
Is Bush gonna campaign with only $100M? That's only a dollar per voter...

That's $100M (maybe more) in the next 5 months in 10-12 states to targeted groups.  That's a LOT.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2004, 04:08:11 PM »

Quote from: Restricted
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That still only makes it about $4 per voter, still not very impressive.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #19 on: March 04, 2004, 04:09:05 PM »

I thought America was the nation of MONEY in campaigns?
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