Irish general election, 26th Feb 2016

[ObserverIE]

As always, a great post, Jas. I have some questions. What is the depost threshold?

One quarter of the quota, i.e. 6.25% in a 3-seater, 5% in a 4-seater, 4.16% in a 5-seater. It's not a deposit as such, but a partial refund of election expenses.

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I'm not sure most people think that tactically. From tallying votes at the last local and European elections in 2014, transfers went all over the place. I'd expect it to be a bit more coherent at a Dáil election, but you will get:

• the party loyalists who will vote for their own candidates first, then any allies (FG/Lab), then largely stop (termed "plumpers"),
• local-minded voters who will transfer between local candidates of any party - this tends to be particularly the case in areas which feel peripheral or neglected within a constituency or the country at large,
• the conscientious/bloody-minded, who will go down through the entire ballot paper.

I'd say the median voter preferences half the names on the ballot paper.

SF voters had a reputation as plumpers, but I'd expect them to transfer well this time to "protest" independents and smaller parties - and vice versa. FF voters may go anywhere once they've done the duty by the local candidate or the party. FG voters will look after their own first and only then preference Labour.

[ObserverIE]

What is the background of this [REDACTED] stuff all the time?

[REDACTED] is Denis O'Brien, litigious Maltese-based would-be oligarch, who had his ascent to oligarchhood accelerated by the award of a mobile phone licence under the last FG/Lab coalition in the late 90s. A subsequent investigative tribunal found that O'Brien had made payments to the minister in charge of awarding the licence. O'Brien owns the largest daily/weekly newspaper group as well as two national and a number of local radio stations, ensuring that there are a large number of megaphones at his disposal, and has been able to take advantage of the detritus of the crash by buying up companies who owed large amounts of money to now state-owned banks. These companies have then in a number of cases been awarded lucrative government contracts (installing water meters, fuel supply, etc.).

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First option would be to look for Healy-Rae style independents (one complicating factor is that one of the likely independents is the former FG minister referred to above). Next option would be to look for support from the more amenable small parties - Social Democrats, Greens (if they win any seats), and Renua in order of preference. Next option might be a supply and confidence arrangement for a minority FG government by FF.

FF/SF is unlikely at least until after another election. SF would be open to FF/SF/Lab/SD/compatible independents provided that FF didn't have a majority within the coalition. FF are ruling it out for the moment. (The Alphabet Left are impossibilists and will not participate in or support any government other than a hypothetical Trotskyite majority.)

[ObserverIE]

We're probably now under or around 40 days out from the election.

So with 40 constituencies, maybe we can try and take a look at one a day until polling? Let's find out...

First up - Carlow-Kilkenny.

Candidates

Fine Gael	Pat Deering TD, Cllr. David Fitzgerald, John Paul Phelan TD
Labour	Ann Phelan TD
Fianna Fáil	Bobby Aylward TD, John McGuinness TD, Cllr. Jennifer Murnane-O’Connor
Sinn Féin	Cllr. Kathleen Funchion
AAA-PBP	Conor MacLiam, Adrienne Wallace
Renua	Cllr. Patrick McKee
SocDems	-
Green	Cllr. Malcolm Noonan
Indepenents	Noel Walsh, Paddy Manning

Carlow-Kilkenny is one of the few constituencies to see no boundary change, nor a loss of representation since the last election in 2011.

In 2011, it split 3 FG, 1 Lab, 1 FF - good vote management by FG maximised their returns, and too many candidates from FF helped squeeze them to but one. Their affected candidate, Bobby Aylward, won the by-election in the constituency last year caused by the movement of Phil Hogan from the cabinet to the European Commission.

This time, I doubt anyone believes FG could take 3 seats. Phelan should be the safest of the three - it seems to me a pretty close call between Deering and Fitzgerald for the other seat.

FF only need to do marginally better than 2011 to hold two seats - and the general polling indicates that they should manage just that. It will be interesting to see if their vote management improves this time.

Labour have historically done well in Carlow-Kilkenny - and despite losing seats, IIRC the party overperformed in the local elections compared with Labour in the rest of the country. To have any chance, Phelan will need to transfer very well from the minor left-ish candidates and from geographically nearby candidates. A tall order.

Kathleen Funchion (SF) is running for the Dáil for the fourth time - building her vote each time, getting to 16% in the by-election last year, pretty much exactly what will be needed this time. I doubt she'll match it in the general, but 10-12% looks perfectly plausible and probably good enough to suck in enough transfers to get through.

Of the others, Malcolm Noonan is one of the longest standing Green county councillors in the country - holding his since since 2004. Though the Greens took a seat here in 2007, Noonan would need some freakish luck to make it this time.

Patrick McKee defected to Renua from FF last year and won 9.5% of the vote in the by-election. I suspect he benefited from heightened attention for Renua at the time and would do well to hold that level of support. I doubt he can gather the necessary transfers to be truly competitive - but then there's not much data to go on here.

I would wonder whether a good single AAA-PBP candidate would have been able to outpoll the Greens and maybe push ahead of Phelan to give them a perfectly credible result. As it is they seem to have cemented their status as also-rans.

The constituency has never returned an independent TD - and it doesn't look like breaking that streak is at all likely this time either. Noel Walsh, running on an anti-cronyism platform, has a personal best of 0.36% from his previous two efforts to get elected. Paddy Manning, known for campaigning on pro-life and anti-marriage equality issues, is the other indie.


RTÉ prediction: 2 FG, 2 FF, 1 SF
Irish Times prediction: 2 FG, 2 FF, 1 Lab
Jas prediction: 2 FG (Phelan, Deering), 2 FF (McGuinness, Aylward), 1 SF (Funchion)

A constituency profile with a bit more detail on local party strengths from psephologist D.J. Moore
here: http://www.tallyrifficmaps.com/reports/Carlow%20Kilkenny%20Profile.pdf

[DavidB.]

Many thanks, ObserverIE!

[Јas]

What is the depost threshold?

Prospective candidates have 3 ways of getting onto the ballot:

• Being nominated by a suitably registered political party
• Being nominated by 30 constituents
• Paying a 500 euro deposit

IIRC, most independents pay the deposit. It is recoupable in full if, by the time of their elimination in the count, they accumulated more than a quarter of the quota for election.

The main reason the deposit threshold is relevant though is because it is the same threshold used for candidates to qualify to recoup some of their election expenses (up to a maximum of €8,700 depending on the constituency size).

Given the Green Party's decision to contest all constituencies (despite, in even the most optimistic scenarios, being only competitive in a very small number of seats) - this threshold will an important marker across the country as it will determine just how expensive the election will prove to be for them.

[Јas]

Another constituency poll...

The Irish Independent commissioned Millward Brown to poll Mayo (4-seater)...

%
24 Kenny (FG)
23 Ring (FG)
19 Calleary (FF)
11 Conway-Walsh (SF)
  9 Mulherin (FG)
  8 Chambers (FF)
  3 Cowley (i)


The poll involved face-to-face interviews with 502 adults at 46 sampling points in Mayo between February 9 and 11. The margin of error is 4.4pc.

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/paul-moran-electorate-loyal-to-fg-but-feels-unloved-by-kenny-34453359.html

[Kevinstat]

Given the Green Party's decision to contest all constituencies (despite, in even the most optimistic scenarios, being only competitive in a very small number of seats) - this threshold will an important marker across the country as it will determine just how expensive the election will prove to be for them.

Did any non-incumbent Green Dáil candidates reach the deposit threshold in 2011?  I know three of their six incumbents lost their deposits that year.  Do they have a decent shot of meeting the deposit threshold in more than three constituencies this year?

There's also some nationwide threshold for getting some public funding/reimbursement, isn't there.  That might be why their fielding candidates everywhere, perhaps with an eye toward meeting the national threshold in the next election.  (I've heard people say their recovery will probably take a couple elections, but the implication is that they're not "finished" and will probably have a sustained Dáil presence again at some point in the not-too distant future.)

[Kevinstat]

Either way as the commission created four county agglomerations like the new Sligo-Leitrim(-South Donegal-East Cavan) constituencies in Dublin old constituency boundaries crossing county council boundaries were eliminated.

Assuming that by "Dublin old constituency boundaries" you mean the traditional/ceremonial/whatever you call it County Dublin, there are actually the same number of boundary crossings as before.  The Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown--"South Dublin" breach is eliminated, but there is still a Dublin City-"South Dublin" crossing with Dublin South-West (which could technically be called two crossings, as the equivalent (in that area) old and new constituency boundaries touch the council boundary in Walkinstown).  And there will now be three constituencies which cross the Dublin City-Fingal boundary, with Dublin West joining Dublin North-West and Dublin North-East -> Dublin Bay North.  The Dublin City-Fingal boundary is coincident with a constituency boundary for a bit more of it's course though, as the new Dublin Bay North-Dublin North Fingal (odd name I'll agree) boundary follows the council boundary (apart from some traffic islands/medians) from the northeast corner of Dublin North West to where the council boundary dips to the south to include Howth Head and Sutton in Fingal.

A breach of the Donegal-Leitrim boundary was practically unavoidable (County Donegal with 5 TDs would have been at +7.47% in a 153-seat Dáil, while County Donegal with 6 TDs would have been at -6.35% in a 160-seat Dáil), and a breach of the external boundary of Cavan-Monaghan even more so (within the largest deviation accepted by past commissions (7.89%, from 1980 on probably) only for a 5-seater with 159 and 160 TDs overall, but still +6.78% in a 160-seat Dáil, the "best case scenario").  Counties Donegal and Cavan are both in Ulster, but not sharing a border I know so I think a "Leitrim bridge" made sense as long as County Leitrim wasn't divided (people there have been through enough).  What might have been better is to make Donegal North-East (possibly renamed Donegal North) a four-seater, put the rest of Donegal in a 3-seat (South )Donegal-Leitrim(-West Cavan) (covering all of Leitrim this time, unlike Cormac Breslin's old constituency, which was a functional 2-seater in 1969 and 1973), pair Sligo with (north)East Mayo for 3 seats, with the rest of Mayo being a 4-seater, and pair Roscommon with Galway for 11 seats, like in the actual plan but without any of Mayo thrown in.  That would have resulted in a 29th seat for Connagcht-Ulster (it had 28.8348/158 or 29.0173/159 of the ROI's population as of the 2011 census), which would have either had to come from somewhere else (Munster plus Leinster outside Dublin had 85.3261/158 of the country's population as of the 2011 census but will have 86 seats in the next Dáil (both the new Offaly constituency and the outgoing Tipperary North constituency breach the Offaly-Tipperary and thus the Leinster-Munster boundary)) or be a 159th seat.  The largest population per TD ratio in constituencies not affected by my suggestion was in Dublin North-West, which would have goon gone from +3.92% to +4.58% with the addition of a 159th seat overall.  I don't know if having an even number of TDs once the Ceann Comhairle was elected would be a serious drawback though.

The north-south extent of my Donegal-Leitrim would be even greater than the actual new Sligo-Leitrim, which I know some here have complained about.  It would only contain all or part of three counties though.  The average population per TD (as of 2011) in Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim and Donegal would be 29,691, while the population of the incoming Cavan-Monaghan constituency is 30,121 (the average for Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim, Donegal and Sligo under the actual plan is 30,153).  Not the direction you'd want to go in if you're concerned about Cavan being split too deeply, but maybe the population of Cavan-Monaghan being allowed to be smaller could have allowed Belturbet to go with West Cavan in exchange for some geographically smaller but less populous territory that would have made more sense remaining in Cavan-Monaghan.

Any thoughts on my alternative "might have been" constituency boundaries for Connacht-Ulster?  To keep the Dáil at 158 TDs, County Kildare + Countil Laois + County Kilkenny + County Carlow + County Wicklow + North Tipperary riding + Sounty Tipperary riding (the two ridings still existed as of the time of the last Dáil boundary review, although legislation to merge them might have been passed by that time) + County Limerick + County Clare (with 38.6365/158 of the ROI's population) could have been given 38 seats instead of 39, with County Kildare remaining (from the existing and now outgoing boundaries) coterminous with a 4-seater and a 3-seater, Laois-Offlay remaining a 5-seater but with all of County Offlay in it and with part of County Laois going to Carlow-Kilkenny (with perhaps a dite more of County Carlow going to the Wicklow constituency), Ballyglass in County Clare coming home to the (still 4-seat) Clare constituency and the two Tipperary ridings and County Limerick combining for 12 seats.  This last could have been accomplished with part of South Tipperary going to Limerick County and adjusting the line between Limerick City and Limerick County as needed (and shifting a seat from the city constituency to the county constituency if it made for a better boundary), or by keeping two 3-seat Tipperary based constituencies (Tipperary South could correspond precisely with the then-South Tipperary riding, which would be a recognized boundary even after the two councils merged) and moving some territory in northeastern County Limerick (from the then-existing Limerick and/or Limerick City constituencies) into Tipperary North, with Limerick City becoming a 3 seater and losing territory to Limerick -> Limerick County rather than gaining territory as ended up happening.  The Waterford constituency would still have gained the portion of County Waterford that had been in Tipperary South, and County Kerry would have still been made a 5-seater with none of County Limerick, so counties Kerry and Waterford wouldn't be included in my already huge "conglomerate of change" from the actual plan that resulted.

There would have been no constituencies crossing any provincial lines except the two Connacht-Ulster lines within the ROI.  Munster at 42.9100/158 of the Republic's population would have had 43 TDs (and not having another partial TD or 3 (depending on how you view it) from Offlay), while Leinster outside County Dublin at 42.4161/158 of the ROI's population would have had 42 TDs rather than (most of) 43.  County Dublin with 43.8391/158 of the Republic's population would have still been allotted 44 TDs, while Connact-Ulster at 28.8348/158 of the country's population would have been allotted 29 TDs rather than 28.

[ObserverIE]

Given the Green Party's decision to contest all constituencies (despite, in even the most optimistic scenarios, being only competitive in a very small number of seats) - this threshold will an important marker across the country as it will determine just how expensive the election will prove to be for them.

Did any non-incumbent Green Dáil candidates reach the deposit threshold in 2011?  I know three of their six incumbents lost their deposits that year.  Do they have a decent shot of meeting the deposit threshold in more than three constituencies this year?

Mark Dearey in Louth, who had been one of only three candidates to get elected in the city/county council elections in 2009, and had been appointed a Senator in the interim.

At a guess, the three "South Dublin" constituencies, along with Louth, Carlow-Kilkenny, Dublin Fingal and Dublin Bay North (outside chance in Waterford). The last four are all five-seaters (lowering the deposit level) and have enough of a metropolitan or alternative middle class to give them some sort of a base.

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I think it's 2% of the vote nationally (they were on 1.8% last time, so they should clear it this time with a - very modest - recovery).

I suspect, however, that they'll struggle to make a serious recovery beyond their niche because they acquired a reputation for obsessing with ideological trivia as the house went up in flames around them. I think Labour will struggle to revive after February 26th for much the same sort of reason and because SF and the Alphabet Left will have eaten their working-class base just as the Social Democrats pose a threat to the middle-class "conscience" vote.

[Kevinstat]

Given the Green Party's decision to contest all constituencies (despite, in even the most optimistic scenarios, being only competitive in a very small number of seats) - this threshold will an important marker across the country as it will determine just how expensive the election will prove to be for them.

Did any non-incumbent Green Dáil candidates reach the deposit threshold in 2011?  I know three of their six incumbents lost their deposits that year.  Do they have a decent shot of meeting the deposit threshold in more than three constituencies this year?

Mark Dearey in Louth, who had been one of only three candidates to get elected in the city/county council elections in 2009, and had been appointed a Senator in the interim.

At a guess, the three "South Dublin" constituencies, along with Louth, Carlow-Kilkenny, Dublin Fingal and Dublin Bay North (outside chance in Waterford). The last four are all five-seaters (lowering the deposit level) and have enough of a metropolitan or alternative middle class to give them some sort of a base.

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I think it's 2% of the vote nationally (they were on 1.8% last time, so they should clear it this time with a - very modest - recovery).

I suspect, however, that they'll struggle to make a serious recovery beyond their niche because they acquired a reputation for obsessing with ideological trivia as the house went up in flames around them. I think Labour will struggle to revive after February 26th for much the same sort of reason and because SF and the Alphabet Left will have eaten their working-class base just as the Social Democrats pose a threat to the middle-class "conscience" vote.

Yeah, that all makes sense.  Thanks.

[Јas]

There's also some nationwide threshold for getting some public funding/reimbursement, isn't there.  That might be why their fielding candidates everywhere, perhaps with an eye toward meeting the national threshold in the next election. 

Under the Electoral Acts, parties that garner over 2% of the first preference vote nationally at the last general election are entitled to funding.

All qualifying parties receive a basic set rate of €126,574 per annum. In addition, there is a pot of annual funding (approximately €4.8 million last year) which is distributed amongst the qualifying parties according to the share of the FPV they have received. This funding limited to electoral activities.


There are two other state supports for parties.

The Parliamentary Activities Allowance is funding direct to party leaders and independent TDs. It is awarded based on the number of TDs elected to the Dáil, rather than the share of the vote. It’s worth:

• €64,368 per TD for the first 10 TDs
• €51,493 per TD for the next 20 TDs
• €25,754 per TD for the remainder of TDs in a parliamentary party

In addition, Independent TDs receive €37,037 per annum.

Parties in Government have their allocation reduced by one third to recognise the supports offered them from the Civil Service.

If a TD leaves or is expelled from his or her party, that party keeps receiving the money awarded based on the fact that the TD in question was elected as a party TD.

The Parliamentary Activities Allowance cannot be used for electoral activities.


The third element of State support is additional staff allocated to Parties. These party secretariats assist in the running of the legislative activities of the Parliamentary Party.

[ObserverIE]

More political broadcasts:

Freemen On The LandDirect Democracy Ireland
Fianna Fáil as Gaeilge

[ObserverIE]

MRBI poll in Kerry giving Michael Healy-Rae two quotas by himself.

Healy-Rae The Cap 33
Deenihan (FG) 13
Griffin (FG) 13
Brassil (FF) 11
Spring (Lab) 8
Ferris (SF) 7
Moriarty (FF) 6
Healy-Rae The Beard 4
Green 2
O'Donnell (FG) 1
Renua 1
Others 1



(Tacaíocht do pháirtithe - support for parties,
Vótaí céadrogha - first preference votes,
LO - Lucht Oibre/Labour,
NS - Neamhspleách/Independent.
EL - Eile/Others)

Next generation of Caps out early lowering expectations.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

That's pretty out there even for a constituency poll.

[ObserverIE]

RedC again, this time for the Irish Sun:

FG 26 (-2)
FF 19 (+1)
Ind/Oth 18 (+2)
SF 17 (-3)
Lab 9 (+1)
GP 4 (+2)
SD 3 (-1)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
Renua 2 (+1)

I'm sceptical that the Greens are at that level, and I'm also doubtful that FG are that low, no matter how awful their campaign has been. (On the other hand, FG being asked if they'd be willing to enter a FF/FG coalition as the junior partner would provide endless amusement.)

One of the two SF figures - from this poll or last - is also likely to be wrong.

[Oakvale]

That poll really highlights how terrible the Irish media is at analysing these things - almost any poster on this forum would do a better job. There's literally no reason for SF to have surged three points and immediately dropped back down, but that doesn't stop headlines about the, er, Green Party's momentum.

[tpfkaw]

What would be the result of a FG-FF or FF-FG coalition? I'd imagine the junior partner would get PASOK/Lib Dem/FDP-ified and thereafter Irish politics would be polarized on the more traditional left vs. right lines.

[YL]

That's pretty out there even for a constituency poll.

The nomination of DH-R did suggest that there was the possibility that there might be enough votes out there for Healy-Raes to elect two of them.

What I have no feeling for is how many of those 1 Michael Healy-Rae votes are then going to go 2 Danny Healy-Rae.

[YL]

What would be the result of a FG-FF or FF-FG coalition? I'd imagine the junior partner would get PASOK/Lib Dem/FDP-ified and thereafter Irish politics would be polarized on the more traditional left vs. right lines.

Isn't an actual coalition between FG and FF hell freezing over territory?

[DavidB.]

By the way, why are Irish elections on Fridays?

[Vosem]

What would be the result of a FG-FF or FF-FG coalition? I'd imagine the junior partner would get PASOK/Lib Dem/FDP-ified and thereafter Irish politics would be polarized on the more traditional left vs. right lines.

So long as FF doesn't fall apart utterly and get replaced by someone else, this coalition is impossible. (Indeed, of the Big Three parties currently in Ireland, FG, FF, and SF, all three of them hate each other enough that any coalition among them is impossible). To be reelected, FG+Labour+palatable independents or small non-Trot left-wing parties need to be a majority, and if they're not then there will probably simply be a second election, which has not happened recently in Ireland but for which there is precedent in living memory.

If FF and SF were willing to form a coalition, then there would be some risk of FG being thrown out of office, but it seems like this is not the case.

[ObserverIE]

By the way, why are Irish elections on Fridays?

They haven't always been; the 2007 election was on a Thursday, and other elections have taken place on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. The polling day has always followed the UK midweek convention rather than the continental tradition of Sunday elections.

[DavidB.]

They haven't always been; the 2007 election was on a Thursday, and other elections have taken place on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. The polling day has always followed the UK midweek convention rather than the continental tradition of Sunday elections.

Hmm, okay. Thought there might be a specific reason We always have elections on Wednesdays.

[ObserverIE]

Friday is considered to make it easier for students or people working in Dublin or other cities but whose permanent residence is elsewhere to travel down to vote if they don't then have to return to work the following morning.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

After a certain point these things always become 'this is how we've always done things, what of it?'