2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[VAR]

LOL @ FL-26 at tilt D. Even with Gillum crashing with Cubans he still won this district. If Biden is winning FL, he likely carries this by double digits. Game over

I think it's a similar phenomenon to why PA-08 was rated as 'Lean D Could be a surprise flip' in 2018 when it very blatantly was not - in the middle of a wave election environment, the pundits are singling out a race or two that they want to use to show that they're not hacks.

PA-08 is still rated Lean D.

[Gracile]

The Congressional Leadership Fund (R) has announced an additional $45 million in ad spending for the fall. Here is the market breakdown:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/10/house-gop-super-pac-adds-45m-to-fall-advertising-393071

— $3.5 million across Iowa
— $3.4 million in Upstate New York, including Syracuse, Binghamton and Utica, with $2.7 million for NY-22 and $700,000 for NY-24
— $3.4 million in New York City, including $1 million for NY-11, $500,000 for NJ-07 and $1.9 million for NY-02
— $3.2 million in Dallas
— $3.2 million in Houston
— $2.9 million in Albuquerque, N.M., and El Paso, Texas
— $2.7 million in Miami
— $2.5 million in Minnesota
— $2.3 million in Los Angeles, including $1.8 million for CA-25 and $600,000 for CA-48
— $2.3 million in Salt Lake City
— $2.1 million in Charleston, S.C., and Savannah, Ga.
— $2.1 million in Oklahoma City
— $2.1 million in Philadelphia
— $1.8 million in Norfolk, Va.
— $1.7 million in Atlanta
— $1.2 million in Champaign, Ill., and St. Louis
— $1 million in Las Vegas
— $775,000 in Cincinnati
— $650,000 in Richmond, Va.
— $650,000 in Omaha, Neb.
— $500,000 in Montana
— $500,000 in Detroit
— $400,000 in Bakersfield, Calif., and Fresno, Calif.
— $400,000 in Harrisburg, Pa.
— $250,000 in Maine

[Tekken_Guy]

Iowa -- IA-01, IA-02, IA-03
Upstate NY -- NY-22, NY-24
NYC -- NJ-07, NY-02, NY-11
Dallas -- TX-24, TX-32
Houston -- TX-07, TX-22
Albuquerque/El Paso -- NM-02, TX-23
Miami -- FL-26, FL-27
Minnesota -- MN-01, MN-07
LA -- CA-25, CA-48
Salt Lake City -- UT-04
Charleston/Savannah -- SC-01
Oklahoma City -- OK-05
Philadelphia -- NJ-02, NJ-03, PA-01)
Hampton Roads -- VA-02
Atlanta -- GA-06, GA-07
Champaign/St. Louis -- IL-13, MO-02
Las Vegas -- NV-03
Cincinnati -- OH-01
Richmond-- VA-07
Omaha -- NE-02
Montana -- MT-AL
Detroit -- MI-08
Bakersfield/Fresno -- CA-21
Harrisburg -- PA-10
Maine -- ME-02

[Person Man]

They will need like 20 seats. This is 34 seats. How many of these 34 do they already control? My guess is that if they win all of these seats, that they pick up like 25 seats.

[libertpaulian]

I love how the CLF is taking IN-05 for granted.

[lfromnj]

I love how the CLF is taking IN-05 for granted.

Meh it's an auto pickup in 2022 after redistricting.

[VAR]

FL-03 Republican primary

Cammack 25%
Sapp 15%
George 13%
Rollins 11%
Chase 6%
Chamberlin 3%
Wells 3%
Other 4%
Undecided 20%

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/356515-kat-cammack-holds-double-digit-lead-in-new-cd-3-poll

Another Republican womxn in a safe seat!

[VAR]

FL-19 Republican primary (St. Pete‘s Polls):

Donalds 22%
Figlesthaler 21%
Eagle 20%
Askar 16%
Other 13%
Undecided 14%

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/354784-poll-shows-byron-donalds-dr-fig-dane-eagle-locked-in-tight-cd-19-gop-primary

[Pollster]

DePasquale +2 (46/44) in a DFM poll of PA-10

[VAR]

TX-23 (Public Opinion Strategies/Gonzales internal)

Ortiz Jones 41%
Gonzales 40%

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/gop-house-candidate-in-dead-heat-for-will-hurds-district-poll

[VAR]

DePasquale +2 (46/44) in a DFM poll of PA-10

Favorabilities

Trump 47/52
Casey 41/40
Toomey 31/49
Perry 40/37
Wolf 52/45
DePasquale 38/16
Biden 48/50

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

DePasquale +2 (46/44) in a DFM poll of PA-10

Pretty horrendous to release a poll showing yourself trailing in a district where polls in 2018 were off by astronomical margins in favor of both Hurd and Cruz.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DePasquale +2 (46/44) in a DFM poll of PA-10

Pretty horrendous to release a poll showing yourself trailing in a district where polls in 2018 were off by astronomical margins in favor of both Hurd and Cruz.

I think you've quoted the wrong poll, unless Texas has annexed Pennsylvania.

[wbrocks67]

DePasquale +2 (46/44) in a DFM poll of PA-10

Pretty horrendous to release a poll showing yourself trailing in a district where polls in 2018 were off by astronomical margins in favor of both Hurd and Cruz.

You mean, in favor of Jones and O'Rourke?

[Gracile]

MN-07 CLF internal (R):

Fischbach (R) 52%
Peterson (D-inc) 42%

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1293570516721295360

No presidential numbers.

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/status/1293570610891759620?s=20

[YE]

MN-07 CLF internal (R):

Fischbach 52%
Peterson (R-inc) 42%

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1293570516721295360

No presidential numbers.

RIP Peterson. Or at least tempting to do so given this is also around the time in the election cycle ND-Sen started to break away.

[VAR]

RMG Research

MI-06
Hoadley 40%
Upton 36%

Trump approval 41/56

https://www.termlimits.com/mi6-poll/

NY-24
Katko 40%
Balter 37%

Trump approval 37/57

https://www.termlimits.com/ny24-poll/

TX-10
McCaul 46%
Siegel 39%

Trump approval 49/48

https://www.termlimits.com/tx10-poll/

[😥]

MN-07 CLF internal (R):

Fischbach 52%
Peterson (R-inc) 42%

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1293570516721295360

No presidential numbers.

Republican internal, without presidential number. I believe this race is closer to Tilt D than Tilt R.

[Roll Roons]

Inside Elections has come up with a list of GOP-held seats they list as Safe R, but are potentially worth watching in a huge wave. Trump won all of these districts in 2016 with 52-58 percent. 
https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/house-races-to-watch

CA-04 (McClintock)
CA-08 (Open, Cook)
CA-22 (Nunes)
CA-50 (Open, Hunter)
FL-18 (Mast)
IL-16 (Kinzinger)
KS-02 (Open, Watkins)
KY-06 (Barr)
MI-02 (Huizenga)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MN-08 (Stauber)
NE-01 (Fortenberry)
NV-02 (Amodei)
NJ-04 (Smith)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Reed)
NC-09 (Bishop)
OH-12 (Balderson)
OH-14 (Joyce)
OH-16 (Gonzalez)
SC-02 (Wilson)
TX-03 (Taylor)
TX-17 (Open, Flores)
TX-31 (Carter)
VA-01 (Wittman)
WI-01 (Steil)
WI-06 (Grothman)

I have my doubts about most of these seats, but could any realistically be in play? I feel like a lot of the incumbents are pretty strong and have a good change of significantly outperforming Trump.

[S019]

Inside Elections has come up with a list of GOP-held seats they list as Safe R, but are potentially worth watching in a huge wave. Trump won all of these districts in 2016 with 52-58 percent. 
https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/house-races-to-watch

CA-04 (McClintock)
CA-08 (Open, Cook)
CA-22 (Nunes)
CA-50 (Open, Hunter)
FL-18 (Mast)
IL-16 (Kinzinger)
KS-02 (Open, Watkins)
KY-06 (Barr)
MI-02 (Huizenga)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MN-08 (Stauber)
NE-01 (Fortenberry)
NV-02 (Amodei)
NJ-04 (Smith)
NY-21 (Stefanik)
NY-23 (Reed)
NC-09 (Bishop)
OH-12 (Balderson)
OH-14 (Joyce)
OH-16 (Gonzalez)
SC-02 (Wilson)
TX-03 (Taylor)
TX-17 (Open, Flores)
TX-31 (Carter)
VA-01 (Wittman)
WI-01 (Steil)
WI-06 (Grothman)

I have my doubts about most of these seats, but could any realistically be in play?

KS-02, TX-31, OH-12, CA-22 are the most plausible, in that order. KS-02 has a strong D candidate, TX-31 could very well be won by Biden and his coattails could help the winner, and OH-12 and CA-22 could be wave insurance in a very large Democratic win nationally.

[Pollster]

RMG Research

MI-06
Hoadley 40%
Upton 36%

Trump approval 41/56

https://www.termlimits.com/mi6-poll/

NY-24
Katko 40%
Balter 37%

Trump approval 37/57

https://www.termlimits.com/ny24-poll/

TX-10
McCaul 46%
Siegel 39%

Trump approval 49/48

https://www.termlimits.com/tx10-poll/

Who is so passionate about term limits that they are donating to this organization in amounts high enough to fund all of this polling that they've been doing?

[VAR]

NC-11
EMC Research/Davis internal

Cawthorn 42%
Davis 40%

https://moedavisforcongress.com/press-release-poll-shows-dead-heat-in-11th-congressional-district-race/

[VAR]

TX-22 (RMG)

Kulkarni 39%
Nehls 39%

Trump approval 43/55

Nehls favorability 39/20
Kulkarni favorability 30/23

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/f47d639676403e1c0eaadf65934e30e2/TX-22%20Toplines%20July%202020.docx

[VAR]

NJ-02 (HMP internal)

Kennedy 46%
Van Drew 45%

Generic Ballot: D 44/40

http://files.www.thehousemajoritypac.com/research/NJ-02_Poll_080920.pdf