2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Lief 🗽]

Democrats surge into a ten point lead!
https://twitter.com/electsworld/status/1395746724879216646?s=21

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WOW!
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1397617004043984898?s=21

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Especially coming from infallible high-quality gold standard Quinnipiac!

Especially coming from infallible high-quality gold standard Quinnipiac!

The funny thing is they've been one of Biden's worst approval polls.

[Lief 🗽]

The Democratic lead on the generic ballot surged to an incredible ten points in August.

https://twitter.com/EchelonInsights/status/1428808044251598858

[Lief 🗽]

Imagine thinking that the Democrats are anywhere close to leading the generic ballot after tonight. These polls are total junk!

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Biden also has a 31% approval rating in that poll. Crazy stuff.

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Generic state legislature polls from PPP:

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1558157232415588353?s=21&t=d6dboZYsHK...

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https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1562412514293473280

I checked 538 to see what the conventional wisdom on these things is... they have Ryan as a narrow underdog in NY-18 (a Biden +8 district!!) and Molinaro with nearly a 70% chance of winning in NY-19.

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Those Inside Elections changes are bizarre. They almost seem random.

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Wow! From the Gold Standard Big Village poll too!
https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1563330993963933698?s=21&t=FOvwB5Z...

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The most comparable generic ballots so far are 2002 (unprecedented incumbent victory) or 2014 (humiliating incumbent defeat).
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1564411069526843398?s=21&t=4q2kvDU...

[Lief 🗽]

Am I right that basically every poll shows the Democrats tied or leading the generic ballot at this point? I think the only ones that do not are fake polls run by far-right Republicans (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc). And yet the consensus continues to be that Republicans are favored? Everyone is just assuming there will be a huge polling miss (there was not in 2018) or a sudden shift to the GOP (Labor Day was over two weeks ago and still no sign of this at all).

[Lief 🗽]

I do think that anything more than D+1 is likely a D majority for what it’s worth. If it’s less than that, then probably an R majority, but it’s very unlikely IMO that D’s lose the House while winning the popular vote otherwise. In 2020, the House popular vote was D+3 and the tipping point seat was D+2, so only a very small R advantage. And the new maps have shifted slightly more in D’s direction overall.

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Good news: the 538 general ballot is now D+2.0, the highest since last November.

Bad news: the last time Democrat’s had this “big” of a lead, they lost VA and almost NJ

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All of the ratings sites are just reacting to polls. They have no more clue than all of us but won’t admit it.

They also tend to overreact to the story of the day or even just ET narratives that have gained traction for whatever reason.

A lot of these guys are running on steam. Their days are numbered. There’s no reason for people to pay for their opinions when you can get the same opinions from some 17-year-old kid on Twitter.

[Lief 🗽]

The ABC/WaPo poll is horrible for Democrats. They did have R+10 in their last poll a few months ago, so I suppose you could say this is a big shift. But Biden at 39% and R+1 in September means that we're still on track for a significant red wave (+30 in House, +2 in Senate).

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I love how everyone just decides that the most recent poll that they’ve seen is the most accurate, even if it’s only a day or two after another poll

Like just look at the reaction to Wisconsin polling

Barnes+2 = Democrats may pull this off, it’s a tossup!

Johnson+1 = Titanium Ron Jon can’t be beaten… Democrats are fools for investing in this race.

ABC/WaPo is a very high quality national poll. Of course people are going to pay more attention to it than the daily slop from Rasmussen or Morning Consult.

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Culprit in drop week to week in YouGov/Economist GCB seems to be Women. They had D+13 last week , only D+6 this week.

Corroborates Nate Cohn’s theory. Women have stopped googling “abortion” so much and are now shifting Republican as a result.

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1575109967958646794?s=21&t=ZR9WSQYnSMeS...

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And here's a counterpoint view from 538: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/women-have-swung-toward-democrats-since-the-dobbs-decision/

I love it when the Nates fight! Election season is really heating up now!

[Lief 🗽]

Looks like the traditional post-Rosh Hashanah collapse is in full swing now. RIP.

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Cook moves PA-SEN back to toss-up.

Same day that Suffolk has Fetterman +6/7 with Oz nearly -20 in favorability and at 40%.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/pennsylvania-senate/pennsylvania-senate-moves-back-toss

I get there is a tiny bit of uncertainty about this race depending on how you look at it - but I'm not sure how can actually say it's a tossup when Oz has never led a single poll (the lowest it has been is Fetterman +2) and he has struggled to top 40-44% in nearly 90% of the polling.

A Democrat leading in Pennsylvania by 46-40 in late September is a toss-up race. You can't just say "Fetterman +6, must be Lean D!" You have to look at this stuff in context, and the context is a state where Republicans often beat their polls/close strong in the end, the D candidate is in the mid-40s, and 14% undecided.

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As I'm sure people are aware, I think looking at past polling error can be very helpful. But the way RCP does it is really dumb, because their averages are fake and arbitrary in the first place. It would be interesting if 538 did it, where the averages are actually done correctly.

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D+6 is enough for Spanberger and probably Luria.
https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1580311418330443778?s=21&t=Gv5m0WXW9o...

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lol

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1581008620094775298

[Lief 🗽]

Some friendly advice… start mentally preparing for the GOP to win 52 senate seats and 230 House seats now. Better to come to grips with that now instead of at 9pm on election night.