2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/215c4506-b2b1-43d9-9041-f9c9fab5e391
so I constructed this map.
three D seats in DFW, with northern Dallas County cracked between 4 seats, all of them GOP-leaning
an ingenious way of preventing an additional Democrat from getting elected from Travis County - one seat going west far into West Texas, another going east in Montgomery County, and then a D vote sink
TX-07 is kept competitive by becoming more exurban
Fort Bend is chopped in half to prevent a D from winning there
TX-23 is turned into a McCain district, but its Hispanic % is higher than in the 2010s
12 districts went to McCain with over 65%, and 9 more gave him between 60% and 65%.

I don't think that North Dallas crack can hold. All four of those North Dallas/Collin seats could go over in a cycle or two. Similarly, I don't that North Tarrant seat can hold. Houston and Austin should be stonger, although the ex-TX-07 and Williamson County seat should go for the Dem. Same with the Hays-Fort Bend district. You just drew a map that could be 22D-16R. Also, you seriously need to adjust for 2020 populations; some of these districts are going to be ~200k voters off.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Collin is zooming left as well. I'd guess that in 2020, your CD 7 and 8 would flip with 60-40 Dem margins in Dallas and 55-45 GOP margins at best in Collin/Denton. You need a North Dallas/Park Cities/Plano pack. If you want 6 instead of 8 Dem seats in DFW all the way through 2030, you need a NE Tarrant/NW Dallas/SW Collin/SE Denton pack, North Dallas/Plano pack, and a NE Dallas/Richardson pack. Similarly, giving Fort Bend it's own pack keeps CD 28 and 32 from eventually flipping.

In 2030, Collin, Denton, and Tarrant will all be safe Dem counties. Therefore, any district that splits chunks of Dallas out to any of the other three is bound to flip. It's much smarter to pack the inner suburbs and split the outer fringes of these counties out to the rurals. Same goes for Travis and Bexar with Williamson, Comal, and Hays; and for Harris with Fort Bend, Brazoria, and yes, Montgomery.

By 2030, Texas is going to be a D+5 state with a Dem geographic advantage. A good map for the GOP keeps Dems below 18 seats through the decade, which means starting the decade with 15-16 Dem seats. Anything else is a dummymander.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Collin is zooming left as well. I'd guess that in 2020, your CD 7 and 8 would flip with 60-40 Dem margins in Dallas and 55-45 GOP margins at best in Collin/Denton. You need a North Dallas/Park Cities/Plano pack. If you want 6 instead of 8 Dem seats in DFW all the way through 2030, you need a NE Tarrant/NW Dallas/SW Collin/SE Denton pack, North Dallas/Plano pack, and a NE Dallas/Richardson pack. Similarly, giving Fort Bend it's own pack keeps CD 28 and 32 from eventually flipping.

6 Dem seats in DFW would be a rather ugly gerrymander, even taking into account trends. Even on the hardest of swings you only need 4 Dem packs in DFW, then just splitting off the rest of the suburbs and sinking it (and with 4 D packs you can get every single R seat around DFW to over 60% Cruz, which should be pretty safe for a decade).

No, it isn't. Basically the entire built up area of DFW flipped in 2018. This is the precinct map from 2016:



In 2018, basically the entirety of the built-up suburbs--the triangle from McKinney to Lewisville to Mesquite and a chunk of east-central Tarrant--flipped Dem. The only things keeping Denton, Collin, and Tarrant voting republican are their rural fringes. What happens when the built up areas swing Dem another 10 points and the rural areas get built over as DFW adds another million people over the next 10 years? Every single inner suburb-outer suburb-rural strip you draw flips. Take this map for example:



It starts out 6-4 Dem (yes, the pink and light blue seats are pretty comfortably Dem in 2020.) However, the four Republican seats only hold the purple (and rapidly blueing) urban fringes and are designed so that only the Frisco-Prosper-Sherman district is high growth--and is the only of the three which could reasonably flip by 2030. If you don't give Collin, North Dallas, Southeast Denton, and Northeast Tarrant their two packs, I guarantee the 4-6 rural strip districts you draw instead end up flipping.

In 2030, Collin, Denton, and Tarrant will all be safe Dem counties. Therefore, any district that splits chunks of Dallas out to any of the other three is bound to flip. It's much smarter to pack the inner suburbs and split the outer fringes of these counties out to the rurals. Same goes for Travis and Bexar with Williamson, Comal, and Hays; and for Harris with Fort Bend, Brazoria, and yes, Montgomery.

Tarant being blue in a decade is somewhat plausible, but Collin and Denton being not only blue but Safe D is a rather bold prediction to say the least. And the solution to the risk of Collin and Denton going blue isn't to give up and hand away seats to the Dems, it's to make the map uglier and get more rurals involved in splitting up the suburbs. And treating Montgomery (a county that Cruz got 72% in) and Comal (where Cruz got 71%) in the same category as Hays and Williamson is rather silly.

Not really. Hays and Williamson have flipped because of their massive growth. Montgomery and Comal are right along the underdeveloped edges of massive urban cores. What happens when The Woodlands and New Braunfels add 200k people each voting 70-30 Dem? They flip.

By 2030, Texas is going to be a D+5 state with a Dem geographic advantage. A good map for the GOP keeps Dems below 18 seats through the decade, which means starting the decade with 15-16 Dem seats. Anything else is a dummymander.

Even on the hardest of swings Texas in 10 years being the same PVI as Oregon is rather unlikely. And you can draw a 23-16 map with every R seat over 60% Cruz, so saying a "good" map for the GOP gives away 18 seats is rather absurd.

A fair map would probably be 23-15 Dem by 2030 given the way Texas is shifting and the Dem geographic advantage (basically getting in the low 50s in every single suburb while the rurals are blow outs.) Keeping Dems to only 18 TX seats in 2030 is very ambitious. The next 10 years in Texas are going to be just like Virginia from 2006 to today.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Ok lets go
2018 Population estimates added to DRA in the 2010 files so we can now make a proper texas map.

How do you get the population estimates to update?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Ok lets go
2018 Population estimates added to DRA in the 2010 files so we can now make a proper texas map.

How do you get the population estimates to update?

Its the regular map you open up with 2010 Voting districts, where you see all the partisan data theres also a check box for 2018 population updates. Unfortunately the left tab that keeps track of population hasn't been updated so you have to keep checking it. So when you open Texas you see 25m with 2010 and 39 districts is about 645 on the left. However when you click on the district it will tell the estimated 2018 data.

Got it. Thanks!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The delayed census count introduces an interesting wrinkle into the process.  If the legislature has to convene a special session to redistrict after its normal session ends in May of 2021, the maps will only be valid for one election and must be redrawn at the next regular legislative session in 2023.  Also, the backup commission has no constitutional authority to step in and draw the legislative maps if there is a deadlock in a special session.

It would be able to step in after a deadlock in the 2023 regular session, but all of the statewide offices that make up 4 of the 5 seats on the backup commission are up for statewide election in 2022 and the 5th seat is the Speaker of the State House, so it is possible control of the backup commission could flip.  The commission includes the LG and AG who both won by <5% in 2018.  The most likely scenario where the backup commission would come into play would be if Democrats control the state house (whether they flipped it in 2020 or 2022 doesn't really matter) or if they flipped the governorship in 2022.  Thus, if 2022 is another Trump midterm, it is, remarkably, now plausible that Democrats could be in a position to draw the the state legislative maps in 2023.

With all this uncertainty hanging out there, I wonder if a deal could be struck on sending a nonpartisan commission amendment to the voters in 2022 if there is a split legislature after 2020?

I wonder if there's a chance Texas Republicans would try to stick in commissions with strong compactness requirements as a method of packing Hispanics more along the Rio Grande and in urban areas? The Fifth Circuit Court is thoroughly in the tank for them, so they'd only have to worry about the Supreme Court striking it down and if they were willing to say compact Rio Grande districts aren't unconstitutional packing, that ought to save them at least one congressional district.

Compactness really benefits Dems more than Republicans in TX, though. Even if Dems lose a seat in the RGV because of it, it gives them a lock on 6 DFW seats, 6 Houston seats, and 5 Austin-San Antonio seats. The GOP is really packed in rural areas in TX.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anyway, I tried to make a completely trend-resistant map with 2018 populations. It locks in a 17D-21R map through 2030 even if TX becomes 55-45 Dem. The key is to concede 5 safe seats to Dems in Dallas-Fort Worth, 4 in Houston, 2 in Austin, 2 in San Antonio, 1 in El Paso, and 3 along the Rio Grande Valley. It should have 7 Latino VRA seats, 2 black VRA seats and 16 majority minority seats overall. With the remaining metropolitan suburbs and exurbs, I made sure to split them out to different rural areas so even with enormous future growth, they should be majority non-metropolitan seats. The map looks like this:



DFW Closeup:


Houston Closeup:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Anyway, I tried to make a completely trend-resistant map with 2018 populations. It locks in a 17D-21R map through 2030 even if TX becomes 55-45 Dem. The key is to concede 5 safe seats to Dems in Dallas-Fort Worth, 4 in Houston, 2 in Austin, 2 in San Antonio, 1 in El Paso, and 3 along the Rio Grande Valley. It should have 7 Latino VRA seats, 2 black VRA seats and 16 majority minority seats overall. With the remaining metropolitan suburbs and exurbs, I made sure to split them out to different rural areas so even with enormous future growth, they should be majority non-metropolitan seats. The map looks like this:



DFW Closeup:


Houston Closeup:

South Texas violates the VRA, everything else looks great.

Does it? I just swapped the 3 fajitas+San Antonio to El Paso district for a McAllen pack, Brownsville fajita, Laredo-El Paso district, and second San Antonio Latino district. Same number of VRA districts in the same area but with different combinations.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I'd consider it a big win if the Dems come out of redistricting with 17 districts in Texas.

It would be at first, but if the GOP tries to push their luck and only draw 4 DFW packs and 3 Houston packs, then by 2024 or so Dems could easily hold 20 seats in TX. This is particularly risky is they don't give us a North Dallas/South Collin pack and a West Houston/Fort Bend pack which I could see them thinking are areas they could win.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Again the worst GOP will need to go to if it wants maximum safety
3 RGV
1 El paso
1 San antonio
1 San Antonio to Austin
1 Austin
4 DFW
4 Houston
thats 15 D seats max and tbh 13 or 14 would do it.

Not a chance. I still don't see how you get DFW down from 5 to 4 districts.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Again the worst GOP will need to go to if it wants maximum safety
3 RGV
1 El paso
1 San antonio
1 San Antonio to Austin
1 Austin
4 DFW
4 Houston
thats 15 D seats max and tbh 13 or 14 would do it.

Not a chance. I still don't see how you get DFW down from 5 to 4 districts.

What do you see as safe?

1 El Paso
3 RGV
2 San Antonio
2 Austin
4 Houston
5 DFW

I can see getting San Antonio+Austin down to 3, but I think later in the decade, it just wouldn't hold as Travis, Hayes, and Williamson make up a growing share of whatever rural districts you strip them out to. Maybe DFW can get down to 4 but I haven't worked out a way yet. So far, it looks like you need the black Dallas VRA, a west Dallas seat, an east Tarrant seat, a Plano/Richardson seat, and a southwest Collin/southeast Denton/northwest Dallas seat.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Again the worst GOP will need to go to if it wants maximum safety
3 RGV
1 El paso
1 San antonio
1 San Antonio to Austin
1 Austin
4 DFW
4 Houston
thats 15 D seats max and tbh 13 or 14 would do it.

Not a chance. I still don't see how you get DFW down from 5 to 4 districts.

What do you see as safe?

1 El Paso
3 RGV
2 San Antonio
2 Austin
4 Houston
5 DFW

I can see getting San Antonio+Austin down to 3, but I think later in the decade, it just wouldn't hold as Travis, Hayes, and Williamson make up a growing share of whatever rural districts you strip them out to. Maybe DFW can get down to 4 but I haven't worked out a way yet. So far, it looks like you need the black Dallas VRA, a west Dallas seat, an east Tarrant seat, a Plano/Richardson seat, and a southwest Collin/southeast Denton/northwest Dallas seat.

Again what are the numbers for what you see as safe?

Trump+10 if it's rural, Trump +20 if it's metropolitan as a rule of thumb. With Texas though, it isn't just about what the margins are but where you anticipate growth. Say you have a R+15 district including west Fort Bend County and a bunch of rurals. By 2030, there could easily be another quarter million people voting 70-30 past Cinco Ranch and suddenly this district goes from casting 150k votes for Dems and and 210k votes for the GOP to casting for the 240k Dems and 250k votes for the GOP before any changes to voting are applied in already built-up parts of the district. That's the challenge with TX: not just creating buffers for normal trends but creating buffers for the brand new, Dem-leaning cities that will spring up around North and West Houston, in Collin and Denton Counties, and along the I-35 corridor from San Antonio to Temple. As such, you have to be very careful how you draw the suburb-rural districts.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

It's wishful thinking to believe that the people moving to the Houston outer suburbs are going to be voting Dem at a 70-30 clip.  Most *inner loop* precincts that aren't black- or Hispanic-dominated don't even vote like that. 

There are plenty of precincts past beltway 6 that voted 60-40 Beto, which would imply new residents are even more liberal. Add a decade of trends and the fact 60%+ of these newcomers are going to be minorities and it doesn't seem that unlikely. And most white inner loop precincts range from 55-45 Beto to 75-25 Beto. I fully expect most white inner-loop precincts to hover around the 70% Dem mark by 2030, and with exurbs being majority minority, Dems would only need to get about 55% of the newcomer white vote--not a high bar.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

A lot of these 3 Dem Houston districts aren't VRA compliant. With 2018 numbers, it's really easy to argue Houston requires 3 VRA districts: an AA one stretching from Missouri City to Downtown to Northeast Houston, a Latino one from the Second Ward to Pasadena to La Porte, and a second Latino one from Spring Valley Village to IAH Airport to Dyersdale. With these three districts established, it's really hard to avoid drawing a fourth Dem district in the Uptown/Bellaire area without all the West Houston and Fort Bend districts collapsing.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

A lot of these 3 Dem Houston districts aren't VRA compliant. With 2018 numbers, it's really easy to argue Houston requires 3 VRA districts: an AA one stretching from Missouri City to Downtown to Northeast Houston, a Latino one from the Second Ward to Pasadena to La Porte, and a second Latino one from Spring Valley Village to IAH Airport to Dyersdale. With these three districts established, it's really hard to avoid drawing a fourth Dem district in the Uptown/Bellaire area without all the West Houston and Fort Bend districts collapsing.

Houston currently has 3 vra seats, but I agree a west houston pack should be created unless they REALLY want to cut up rural TX.  Here's a good example of how to create 4 vote sinks in Houston.  2 black, 1 hispanic, 1 multiracial dem seat that is very likely to elect Lizzie Fletcher, since it has a majority white electorate but is Clinton+28 (2008 Obama+12, Cornyn+1).  

My mistake. What I meant to say is that I don't think in 2020, drawing a map of Houston that only has 3 Dem seats and is VRA compliant is possible. Some of the previous maps that tried to do that are either non-VRA compliant or actually have more than three Dem districts. Come 2022, I think the TX GOP will have to concede these four Dem packs:

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

A lot of these 3 Dem Houston districts aren't VRA compliant. With 2018 numbers, it's really easy to argue Houston requires 3 VRA districts: an AA one stretching from Missouri City to Downtown to Northeast Houston, a Latino one from the Second Ward to Pasadena to La Porte, and a second Latino one from Spring Valley Village to IAH Airport to Dyersdale. With these three districts established, it's really hard to avoid drawing a fourth Dem district in the Uptown/Bellaire area without all the West Houston and Fort Bend districts collapsing.

Houston currently has 3 vra seats, but I agree a west houston pack should be created unless they REALLY want to cut up rural TX.  Here's a good example of how to create 4 vote sinks in Houston.  2 black, 1 hispanic, 1 multiracial dem seat that is very likely to elect Lizzie Fletcher, since it has a majority white electorate but is Clinton+28 (2008 Obama+12, Cornyn+1).  

My mistake. What I meant to say is that I don't think in 2020, drawing a map of Houston that only has 3 Dem seats and is VRA compliant is possible. Some of the previous maps that tried to do that are either non-VRA compliant or actually have more than three Dem districts. Come 2022, I think the TX GOP will have to concede these four Dem packs:

0 chance Bellaire goes into a D district.

Uh, why not?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

A lot of these 3 Dem Houston districts aren't VRA compliant. With 2018 numbers, it's really easy to argue Houston requires 3 VRA districts: an AA one stretching from Missouri City to Downtown to Northeast Houston, a Latino one from the Second Ward to Pasadena to La Porte, and a second Latino one from Spring Valley Village to IAH Airport to Dyersdale. With these three districts established, it's really hard to avoid drawing a fourth Dem district in the Uptown/Bellaire area without all the West Houston and Fort Bend districts collapsing.

Houston currently has 3 vra seats, but I agree a west houston pack should be created unless they REALLY want to cut up rural TX.  Here's a good example of how to create 4 vote sinks in Houston.  2 black, 1 hispanic, 1 multiracial dem seat that is very likely to elect Lizzie Fletcher, since it has a majority white electorate but is Clinton+28 (2008 Obama+12, Cornyn+1).  

My mistake. What I meant to say is that I don't think in 2020, drawing a map of Houston that only has 3 Dem seats and is VRA compliant is possible. Some of the previous maps that tried to do that are either non-VRA compliant or actually have more than three Dem districts. Come 2022, I think the TX GOP will have to concede these four Dem packs:

0 chance Bellaire goes into a D district.

Uh, why not?

Under a GOP gerrymander of course. Too many donors there who just donate to the incumbent.

That's more River Oaks than Bellaire, but I sort of see your point. Not sure the TXGOP would bother when the area makes such an effective Dem pack.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If TX Republicans go for the Austin superpack approach, I'd expect something like this:



It's Clinton+58, stays within the city limits, and doesn't include the homes of any current GOP representatives. Staying north of the river doesn't make sense from the TXGOP perspective because a lot of the territory in the NE and NW of the county gives Dems much lower margins.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

If TX Republicans go for the Austin superpack approach, I'd expect something like this:



It's Clinton+58, stays within the city limits, and doesn't include the homes of any current GOP representatives. Staying north of the river doesn't make sense from the TXGOP perspective because a lot of the territory in the NE and NW of the county gives Dems much lower margins.

I mean in a fair map this doesn't matter. You should now have one swingy west austin district and williamson and then one safe d east austin and hays/caldwell/bastrop. That district is a reasonable and relatively compact. However the GOP will crack the rest of the Austin metro which is a gerrymander.



The 5 county austin metro is almost 3 districts so this feels like a fairly logical split. The green is  Clinton +13. Its a bit ugly within Travis county because I wanted to see maximum hispanic percentage.One can clean it up with the blue Clinton +45 district if one wishes. Purple is lean to Likely R at trump +12. Also kept Waco and Bell county together. If one wishes they can remove the rurals from the green counties and the rural purple county and just keep the added population in Killeen from Bell county.

Of course. I suggested this specifically to serve as the boundaries of an Austin pack in a TXGOP gerry. I'd expect something like this in the end, although given the GOP districts all hover around 60% Trump, I'd want to see the 2018 Sen numbers and seriously think about conceding another Austin or Austin-San Antonio split Dem pack district.
 

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Tried a Central TX GOP Gerry that I *think* can hold through the 2020s.



Purple: Central Austin--O'Rourke+64 (Davis)
Teal: Central and Western San Antonio--O'Rourke+45 (Latino VRA) (Castro)
Blue: East Austin, East San Antonio, San Marcos--O'Rourke+25 (Latino VRA) (Doggett)
Green: Southwest Austin, San Angelo--Cruz+18 (McCaul)
Red: North San Antonio, Hill Country--Cruz+8 (Hurd/Vacant)
Yellow: West Austin, Round Rock, Gatesville--Cruz+17 (Carter)
Brown: Georgetown, College Station--Cruz+21 (Flores)
Violet: Waco, Temple, Killeen--Cruz+23 (Vacant)
Lime: Victoria, East Austin, Pflugerville--Cruz+22 (Cloud)

Worst case scenario here for the GOP is a 4-5 delegation later on in the decade which isn't bad for an area that'll be 60-40 Dem by 2030. I'm guessing Wendy Davis beats Chip Roy this time around allowing McCaul to slip into the green district unopposed. It is worth noting that this map will make it

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

You gotta crack harder lol, Draw it further out NW and add another crack.

Wouldn't that make cracking Dallas/Fort Worth impossible? You run into VRA issues to the south and west and if you go any further east then Houston becomes a huge liability.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Does anyone see Texas eventually accumulating as many electoral college votes as California currently has (55)?  Texas currently stands at 38.     

Nah. I think at a fundamental level, California is a more desirable place for commerce and livability than Texas. The only reason TX has grown at our expense is because we've basically criminalized housing production and they haven't. California's "natural population" (ie. how many people it would have if zoning laws were even semi-rational) is probably upwards of 70 million. Perhaps I'm too optimistic, but I think CA will eventually deal with this housing shortfall and we'll be back to the boom of the late 20th century. If prices were comparable, would many people really choose Cypress and Round Rock over Newport Beach and Novato?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Not worried about water and power shortages? 

In the era of 21st century infrastructure, that's never really a limiting factor anywhere.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Not worried about water and power shortages? 

In the era of 21st century infrastructure, that's never really a limiting factor anywhere.

Did California's brownouts and water rationing stop after the 20th century, or get worse?

Basically stop, although people did minimize water use during the most recent drought. But if push comes to shove, desal and water diversion from out of state are both possible.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Gonna work on a 10-29 map.

edit: thinking 10-29 isn't possible, probably gonna do 11-29.

D sinks would be 3 Dallas/ 3 Houston

1 Austin
1 Austin to San antonio
1 San Antonio.
1 Rio grande valley sink
1 El paso.

Do 3 Dallas/3 Houston at your own risk. I really wouldn't count on that holding.